CIAO DATE: 04/03
Volume XXXVII No. 4 (October — December 2002)
The Electoral Victory of Reformist Islamists in Secular Turkey, by Duygu Sezer
The fair and free November national elections in Turkey resulted in a political earthquake, bringing to power the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of reformist Islamists founded just over one year ago and removing from the parliament almost in toto the old political guard which had ruled Turkey for the last decades. Opinion polls suggest that the deep economic crisis since 2000 was the paramount reason behind the defection of centrist voters, the mainstay of the Turkish electorate, to the AKP. The new government is confronted by an array of domestic and foreign policy issues that demand urgent attention such as economic recovery, relations with the EU, the Cyprus question, and Iraq. The most formidable challenge for the AKP and Turkish democracy in the long-run is likely to be in the area of public policy, especially the nature and purposes of public education, testing the party's electoral pledge to honour the constitutional principle of secularism that occupies a central place in the country's political set-up.
Postwar Scenarios in Iraw and Regional Re-ordering (PDF, 6 pages, 32 KB) , by Volker Perthes
No one can accurately predict the dynamics that will be triggered by a war. What we can expect, though, is that the war as such will be the easiest part of an American action against the Iraqi regime. The real problems will arise in the days, weeks and months thereafter: starting from a probable Israeli-Palestinian escalation, and not ending with attempts to destabilise a new, US-supervised Iraqi government. The expectation that an invasion and occupation of Iraq will trigger a democratisation of the Arab world amount to wishful thinking at best.
The Making of a New World Energy Order, by Nicola Pedde
The looming threat of a conflict with Iraq has suddenly heightened analysts' interest in the real importance of oil in the crisis under way. Without relegating energy interests to the sidelines, oil does not seem to be the primary motive behind the crisis, but merely an instrumental factor seen in relation to the inevitable process of industrial transformation that will have to take place in the United States in the next 20-25 years. The process will call for stable and price-constant access to the Gulf's energy reserves until it is completed. Therefore, Iraq and its oil will serve to bring Saudi Arabia, a producer that can hardly be replaced in the short term, back into the limits of market competition, moderating its power and, above all, preventing dangerous social and institutional transformations from taking place there.
The EU's Democratic Legitimation and CFSP
The Democratic Legitimation of European Institutions (PDF, 14 pages, 56 KB) , by Gianfranco Pasquino
Democracy is not ensured merely by a set of rules and electoral procedures, it requires a precise definition of relations between the various institutions and their tasks and the possibility of assessing the effectiveness of the political system. Democracy functions when those elected represent with competence and decide responsibly. The article examines the workings of the Council, the Commission and the European Parliament concluding, among other things, that the democratic legitimation of European institutions requires a revitalisation at the European level and an increased role for political parties, open political competition and an informed and demanding citizenship.
It is often assumed that the European Parliament (EP) party system is incoherent and disorganized, and hence that the EP is incapable of translating voters' preferences into policy outcomes. However, evidence from roll-call voting in the EP between 1979 and 2001 reveals that this perception is incorrect. The parties in the EP are now highly cohesive, and competition in the EP is increasingly along left-right lines. This is an optimistic message for the EU, as more powers for the EP in a future EU constitution will surely increase the party-political nature of contestation in the EU policy process.
The Democratic Deficit of EU Foreign and Security Policy (PDF, 14 pages, 56 KB) , by Mathias Koenig-Archibugi
EU institutions can be used by national executives as a means to circumvent domestic opposition to their preferred policies and diminish their accountability to electorates and pressure groups. If the so-called democratic deficit of European governance is one of the purposes of integration, and not merely an unfortunate by-product, then the democratisation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy through the normal procedure of intergovernmental agreement is an unlikely prospect. Those who value both democratic controls of foreign policy and European foreign policy integration should press for a transformation of the procedures for constitutional change in the EU.
CFSP: Conventions, Constitutions and Consequentiality (PDF, 16 pages, 64 KB) , by Christopher Hill
The interplay between the constitutional evolution of the EU, enlargement and foreign policy is of critical importance for all three, and is evident in the current activities of the European Convention. The EU is not about to become a superpower, and cannot become one by stealth, but if it is to act more effectively in the world it needs to create the conditions by which it can deliver a single message, even if by multiple voices. Streamlining procedures, for example by abolishing the Pillars system or the verbiage of Common Strategies, will paradoxically enable the EU to pay more attention to foreign policy substance.
The "Bush Doctrine": Anticipatory Self-Defence and the New US National Security Strategy, by Ben Lombardi
In September 2002, the Bush Administration released its new national security strategy. Required by law, this document identifies security threats and interests, as well as policy responses. Since its release, much criticism has been directed at the new strategy's advocacy of "pre-emptive" strikes against rogue states and terrorist groups that are seeking weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Although the national security strategy bears the imprint of senior Administration officials, most commentators ignore the near consensus within the US foreign policy elite that WMD proliferation and terrorism have been growing threats over the past two decades. This article reviews the thinking behind the new national security strategy and examines some of the strengths and weaknesses of a policy of pre-emption.
Book Reviews and Notes
IAI Library Notes , by Maritza Cricorian