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CIAO DATE: 03/04
Volume XXXVIII No. 3 (July — September 2003)
It has become a tradition for The International Spectator to devote one core issue each year to analysis of the state of relations between Europe and the United States. The goal is to contribute to discussion of the ways and means to adapt the transatlantic partnership to the new realities and challenges emerging on the international scene.
Essays
The EU's Defence Role and the Transatlantic Security relationship
The Future of ESDP - Defence Capabilities for Europe, by Timothy Garden
EU member states have agreed that they need a serious military capability and have started the development of a strategic doctrine. The military security dimension is particularly important for future relations with the US. Without addressing the shortfalls in military capability, EU member states will not have a voice in where and how future operations are conducted. However, the question remains as to how Europe can find the necessary funds to produce the military capabilities. A combination of greater integration of forces, better procurement and the establishment of a European defence budget could produce more effective capabilities relatively soon.
Flexible Modes of Governance: Making CFSP and ESDP Work (PDF, 16 pages, 64.3 Kb) , by Udo Diedrichs and Mathias Jopp
Until qualified majority voting replaces unanimity as the general rule in CFSP and ESDP, decisions will be hard to adopt. The accession of new members will further aggravate this situation. Under these circumstances, flexible modes of governance can offer feasible ways of organising decision-making in an efficient and effective manner. A major breakthrough was achieved in this respect within the Convention on the future of Europe. Clauses for enhanced, structured and closer cooperation offer new opportunities which will enable the EU to more efficently respond to international challenges. Also the establishment of an Agency for Armaments, Research and Military Capabilities, or the provision on groups of countries carrying out military missions contain elements of flexibility. Despite some apparent weaknesses of the Constitutional Treaty, the IGC should try to preserve these achievements and improve the balance between effectiveness and solidarity in CFSP and ESDP.
The Institutional Reform of ESDP and Post-Prague NATO, by Alyson J.K. Bailes
Europe's accent on developing a common European security and defence policy (CESDP), thanks to a newly-discovered focus on crisis management, means that Europe is effectively developing capabilities before it has a policy on when and how to use them. Furthermore, the EU is moving into a niche that NATO is also seeking to occupy. The growing overlap of NATO and EU membership will not leave room for two such organs to co-exist. Whether the EU caucus become a more prominent feature of NATO decision-making or whether the importation of dividing lines and disputes from NATO become more of a habit in ESDP will provide some indication of the future direction.
EU - NATO Cooperation and Complementarity between the Rapid Reaction Forces, by Daniele Riggio
The article attempts to highlight the major challenges and prospects for NATO and the EU in adapting their military postures and fostering mutual complementarity between the NATO's Response Force and the EU's Rapid Reaction Force.
The European Defence Plans: Filling the Transatlantic Gaps, by Daniel Keohane
European Union leaders agree in principle that the EU should contribute more to global security. To this end, European governments plan to increase their military prowess. The foremost question is one of capabilities and how to implement existing procurement programmes. Yet no member states are willing to increase significantly the amount of money spent on defence. Europeans also waste much of their existing military resources and need to think imaginatively about using their assets more efficiently: pooling military capabilities; cooperating more in purchasing and developing weapons systems. Finally there is the question of transatlantic tasksharing. NATO and the EU are not in competition with each other and in the years to come they will swim or sink together.
Italian Foreign Policy Survey
Foreign Policy Challenges of the Italian EU Presidency
Recoupling Russia to Europe: Staying the Course (PDF, 19 pages, 76.4 Kb) , by Stephan De Spiegeleire
As Russia approaches a new peak in its electoral cycle (with parliamentary elections in December 2003 and presidential elections in March 2004), and against a background of a world in turbulence, pressures for conciliatory "grand gestures" towards Russia are once again gathering steam. The main rationale behind these efforts is that Russia deserves better compensation for its much more constructive attitude in international relations than it has so far received. The last thing we want, so the reasoning goes, is that President Putin would be electorally punished for a foreign policy that has in the Western assessment benefited both Russia and the West.
The EU and the Mediterranean: Overhauling the Status Quo Policy, by Álvaro de Vasconcelos
In dealing with the narrower and wider Mediterranean area, including the vast implications of the new Iraq equation for the whole region, the current EU presidency's efforts should be addressed to the re-drafting of the Common Strategy for the Mediterranean, putting democracy and human rights above all other considerations and advocating an international peace force at an early stage in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. EU autonomy is the key to success of its future Mediterranean policy and a successful policy is crucial to fulfilling its ambition of acting as a major player on the world scene.
EU Policies towards the Balkans: Fostering Ownership of Reforms, by Marie-Janine Calic
Despite the Stabilisation and Association process for the Western Balkans, the EU still has no true enlargement strategy that takes account of the specific needs of the Southeast European post-conflict region. Its policy is to get aspirant countries to converge with the EU, but Balkan countries, unlike those of Central Europe, have serious difficulties in complying with even basic Copenhagen criteria, let alone adhering to the acquis communautaire. Given the deep-rooted political, security and economic problems facing the region, there are serious doubts as to whether a policy that it is primarily driven by EU priorities is at all appropriate. At the same time the EU runs the risk of institutional overstretch. Using the Balkans as a test ground for new CFSP and ESDP tools creates a dynamic that drags the Union ever deeper into the various political- and security-related activities, widening the capabilities/expectations gap.
Italy's European Policy and its Role in the European Convention, by Ettore Greco and Raffaello Matarazzo
Italy, while in many respects remaining distant from the club of the most Euro-sceptical countries, has over the last two years become more selective in its support for new transfer of sovereign powers to Brussels. Owing to differences within the ruling coalition, however, the overall direction of Italy's European policy remains uncertain. In the European Convention on the Future of Europe, the Italian government initially kept a low profile on the major issues of EU constitutional reform. Yet, from the beginning of 2003, the Italian government became increasingly active within the European Convention, with the deputy prime minister backing many of the proposals aimed at strengthening European Union institutions and integrating EU policies more closely, starting with CFSP. At the same time, other positions and initiatives taken by the Italian government have revealed a tendency to move away from Italy's traditionally integrationist line.
Opinions
The Afghanisation of Chechnya, by Peter Brownfeld
The Chechens' war is one of secession, not of Islamic fundamentalism; their goal is an independent state, not the destruction of the West. It therefore needs a political solution, not a military one. In early 2003, Chechnya's political leaders put forward a proposal for a conditional independence - conditional on democratisation - with a period of international administration. But in order to begin resolving the conflict, Moscow will have to rein in its armed forces and the Chechens will have to harness the renegade elements. A US- or EU- or UN-brokered settlement could be acceptable to both sides. But for this to happen, the West must recognise that the terror threat that comes from Chechnya is not an indigenous part of the centuries-long Chechen struggle for independence, but rather a result of the radicalisation of the conflict.
Book Reviews and Notes
The Transatlantic Alliance under Review (PDF, 3 pages, 19.8 KB) , by Nicole Renvert
IAI Library Notes , by Maritza Cricorian