CIAO DATE: 01/06
Volume XL, No. 3 (July - September 2005)
Essays - What Future for Non-proliferation after the Failed NPT Review Conference?
Non-proliferation Initiatives and the NPT Review by Surge Sur
The failure of the recent NPT Review Conference has to be viewed in the broader perspective of a crisis not only of multilateral instruments, but of multilateralism as a whole. Many preventive multilateral regimes in the field of arms control have encountered problems of enlargement and implementation lately. The NPT Review revealed a weakening of consensus among states parties, as well as frustration and lack of confidence between parties. Given that the various technical shortcomings of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty have not prevented it from constituting the very basis of non-proliferation hopes and prospects for the last three decades, the failure of the Review can be taken to mean that the very objective of nuclear weapons non-proliferation is under fire today. In the seventies, confidence-building measures were a keystone of the positive process of détente between East and West. Today, restoring confidence between states has to become the main prerequisite once again.
The 2005 NPT Review Conference: 188 States in Search of Consensus, by William Potter
Although the final outcome of the May 2005 NPT Review Conference was predictable, there were a number of surprises, including the major divisions with the Non-Aligned Movement and the New Agenda Coalition. Also unanticipated was the persistence with which one state - Egypt - sought to block consensus on nearly all procedural and substantive matters. Although the NPT was weakened by the inability of states parties to act decisively, there is some hope that common ground may be found on issues related to combatting nuclear terrorism.
TA Treaty in Troubled Waters. Reflections on the Failed NPT Review Conference (PDF, 12 pages, 149 KB), by Harold Muller
The NPT is in very bad shape, due to the bizarre interaction of two extreme positions, the US, which wants non-proliferation without disarmament, and some radical non-aligned member states who are either completely frustrated about the lack of compliance of the nuclear weapon states with their Art. VI commitments or, worse, have nuclear weapon ambitions themselves and are thus interested in weakening the non-proliferation regime. Since stopping and reversing the spread of nuclear weapons is a key security interest of the European Union, it should make this its priority within CFSP. This would require some political concessions by the European nuclear weapon states, but nothing that would really compromise their national security interests. As long as the United States proves incapable of providing the necessary leadership for repairing the regime, the EU will have to fill the void, something it has the experience and capability for action to do.
The European Union and Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Does Soft Power Work?, by Bruno Tertrais
The EU non-proliferation policy, which began to take shape in the mid-1990s, entered a new phase in 2003 in the aftermath of the Iraq war and amidst revelations of Iran's nuclear programme. The EU has three major assets in the fight against nuclear proliferation: its financial resources, its attractiveness as a trade and investment partner, and its preference for "engagement". However, it also lacks some significant non-proliferation instruments such as the ability to extend a security guarantee to a country that feels threatened and the ability to threaten credibly the neutralisation or destruction of a large nuclear programme by conventional means. On the whole, the EU has not fared too badly and its nuclear non-proliferation efforts can be considered moderately successful. However, it must make full compliance with its "non-proliferation clause" a prerequisite for access to European markets and investments.
Anxieties without Borders: The United States, Europe and Their Southern Neighbours, by Ian O. Lesser
Europe and the United States are increasingly affected, as societies, by developments on their southern peripheries. Beyond broad analogies, their approaches to their southern neighbours are asymmetrical in key respects, driven by changing ideas about identity and security, and the conduct of foreign policy. A decade of formal North-South experience on both sides of the Atlantic (Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and North American Free Trade Agreement) has led to an ever-closer linkage between these relations with the "near abroad" and domestic concerns. As policymakers explore ways to reshape transatlantic relations, common challenges in a North-South context are a promising topic for collaboration.
Control of Foreign Investments in Aerospace and Defence, by Michele Nones and Jean-Pierre Darnis
Between March 2000 and March 2003, the EU set up its military structures and brought into effect the "Berlin plus" arrangements, launching its first-ever military operation. Military-to military relations between the EU and NATO focused mainly on six issues: liaison; intelligence, geographic, command, control and communications; capabilities; security; exercises and training; policy; and operations. The EU-NATO relationship will be crucial in further developing a strategic culture in Europe favouring early, rapid and where necessary robust intervention.
Book Reviews and Notes
Restless Europe? European Identity after the Iraq War and the Constitutional Referenda (PDF, 7 pages, 101 KB), by Christopher Bickerton
Between Sovereignty and Compliance: a Nuclear Strategy for the 21st Century (PDF, 3 pages, 56 KB), by Marcin Zaborowski
IAI Library Notes , by Maritza Cricorian