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CIAO DATE: 04/05/07
Demographics and Security in Maritime Southeast Asia
by Brian Nichiporuk, Clifford Grammich, Angel Rabasa, and Julie DaVanzo
With a population of about 325 million, Maritime Southeast Asia—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore—is an area of significant economic and security interests for the United States. These interests are four fold. First, the United States seeks to maintain open sea lanes through the region, especially through the Straits of Malacca, through which much Persian Gulf oil is shipped to East Asia. Second, the moderate Islam practiced in the region can help offset radical Islamist movements elsewhere. Third, Washington seeks to prevent terrorist infrastructure from developing in the dense jungles of the region. And fourth, the United States needs to build strong strategic relationships in the region to assure access for American air and naval forces. This article analyzes how demographic factors are affecting the security environment of Southeast Asia and examines the resulting security implications for the United States.
The current annual population growth rate of the region (1.38 percent) exceeds that for the rest of the world (1.17 percent). The region is also home to one of the largest Muslim populations in the world, nearly 200 million, with 177 million in Indonesia alone and a Muslim majority in Malaysia as well. Muslims are a minority in the Philippines and Singapore; however, the Muslim population is also growing faster than the total populations in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
The prominence of the Muslim population in the region makes the relationship between Islam and the state an important part of regional politics. This relationship has recently been marred by violence such as the terrorist bombings in Bali and Jakarta in recent years as well as the growth of radical Islamist organizations and parties, the emergence of extremist and terrorist groups, and separatist movements in Mindanao and Aceh in Indonesia. Such insurgency represents the greatest threat to security in a region where there is currently little risk of conflict between states.
While the religious characteristics are perhaps the most distinctive demographic features of the region, other demographic characteristics merit consideration as well. Demographic trends such as urbanization, migration, and population growth affect security issues confronting the region. These trends also shape available responses to security issues.
Urbanization and population dispersion can affect the nature and conduct of conflict by influencing its environment (e.g., creating new areas of conflict) or instruments (e.g., diasporas seeking to advance the interests of their home states or other powers). Demographic variables such as population age structure, particularly the number of persons of military age, can affect the nature of power in a state. Demographic changes such as migration affect the sources of conflict by increasing tensions between states or altering the domestic policies of a given state so that it becomes a security problem for its neighbors.
Brian Nichiporuk is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation.
Clifford Grammich is a member of the RAND Research Communication Group.
Angel Rabasa is a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation.
Julie DaVanzo directs the Population Matters program at the RAND Corporation.