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CIAO DATE: 04/05/07
The Myth of Water Wars
by James R. Davis and Rafik Hirji
The economies of many poor states depend heavily upon water, in particular for livestock, agriculture, energy, industry, mining, fishing, navigation, and tourism. Yet access to water is increasingly problematic, particularly for poorer countries that have under-invested in both water resource infrastructure and in water management systems and institutions. Numerous circumstances lead to water scarcity: the changing nature of supply; rising demand due to population growth and develop ment; degradation of catchments and recharge areas; aquatic ecosystem preservation; and the effects of increasing pollution and climate change, among others. Under-investment in water resources development exacerbates these problems and increases countries’ vulnerability to social and economic shocks from climate variability such as droughts and floods.
Many of the world’s major bodies of water—rivers, lakes, wetlands, and aquifers—are trans-boundary; that is, they straddle national borders. While few international wars have been fought specifically over control of these water resources, water has been the cause of numerous local-level conflicts. Such conflicts are characterized by an absence of established and enforced rules concerning access to and/or protection of water resources, as well as a lack of representation for some parties in water-related decisions.
As water becomes increasingly scarce, there is a very real prospect of tensions over trans-boundary waters leading to a conflict on a wider scale, plunging states into water wars. However, cooperative, environmentally and socially responsible developments also provide a means of defusing these tensions. While the potential for conflict over water resources should not be underestimated, regional cooperative mechanisms have become increasingly popular as a way of acheiving sustainable resource management across borders and point toward economic and social growth.
Rising Water Demand. Freshwater resources are vital for development. Water supports economic activities, including irrigated agriculture, transportation, hydroelectric power, and numerous industries. Water is crucial for the sanitation and health of populations. Wetlands, rivers, and lakes serve important hydrological and socioeconomic functions by mitigating floods, supplying irrigation systems, providing fisheries, and supply ing water for livestock and wildlife. In many parts of the world, natural bodies of water also have a special spiritual or religious significance in society.
Demand for water is growing rapidly. Per capita available water (runoff and groundwater recharge combined) was an estimated 30,000 m3 in 1900.1 By 2000 the figure shrank to 7,000 m3 due to population growth, and is projected to drop to 5,100 m3 by 2025.
Household water consumption tends to increase with rising standards of living. In the United States, for example, indi viduals typically use between 400 and 700 liters each day for domestic uses, compared to an average of 30 to 50 liters per head used in Senegal. As standards of living rise, especially in high-population countries such as India and China, per capita household water use can be expect ed to rise significantly. Similarly, the demand for industrial, hydropower, and irrigation water also rises with increasing affluence. Worldwide, water used for irrigation accounts for about 70 percent of all water demand. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) predicts that demand for irrigation water will grow by 14 percent to 2,420 km3 by 2030.2 Industrial water demand is expected to rise at a rate faster than population growth if industrial development proceeds at current rates in countries such as Brazil, China, and India. As a result, the per capita availability of water will drop even more rapidly than projections indicate. As demand for water increases, reliable access to water supplies also grows more uncertain. The easily exploited and cheapest sources of water have already been tapped to the point where humans use more than half of the world’s readily accessible freshwater.3 If present rates of use continue, humans will use 90 per cent of these freshwater supplies by 2025 and the already high average cost of retrieving sufficient water resources will undoubtedly increase.
James R. Davis is a consultant for the World Bank.
Rafik Hirji is Senior Water Resources Management Specialist in the Environment Department of the World Bank.