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CIAO DATE: 4/00
Foreign Policy
Living in a More Violent
World
Mayra Buvinic and Andrew Morrison
This abstract is adapted from an article appearing in the Spring 2000 issue of FOREIGN POLICY magazine.
Print and television media around the world decry rising violence as an endemic and worsening phenomenon. But do such depictions mirror reality? The phrase "if it bleeds, it leads" describes the media's tendency to sensationalize episodes of violence, whether or not they are characteristic of underlying trends. Better to examine the facts. Homicide rates are probably the most reliable measure of violence, because they suffer least from undercounting. The world average (based on a sample of 34 countries) stood at 5.82 homicides for every 100,000 people in 1980-84. Over the next decade, however, global homicide rates rose by more than 50 percent. Industrialized nations saw homicides increase by nearly 15 percent, while the rate shut up by more than 80 percent in Latin America and 112 percent in the Arab world. The world average jumped to 8.86 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 1990-94. The latest figures available (for the early 1990s) show more than 40 homicides per 100,000 people in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by Latin America and the former Soviet bloc countries, with 22.9 and 11 homicides per 100,000 people, respectively.
What is causing this surge of violence? Is it a permanent or temporary phenomenon? What are the economic and social costs? And finally, what can local, national, or multilateral policy makers do to control this escalating violence?
Have People Become More Evil?
Demographic trends have boosted the segment of the global population that is most prone to aggression-the young. In developing regions, more than one fifth of the population was in the 15-24 age range in the early 1980s, coinciding with the beginning of the surge in violence. The share of young people peaked in the early 1980s in industrialized countries as well.
Although the share of youth in the population has since fallen in most regions of the world, homicide rates have not followed suit. Why? Because once violence occurs, it tends to reoccur. A recent World Bank study confirms that violent crime persists over time, even after other causes of violence are considered. This "criminal inertia" may stem from recidivism at the individual level as well as reduced social inhibitions against violence.
Population density can also foster violent behavior. Cities have grown exponentially over the last two decades, and the share of the population living in urban areas has risen significantly. Crowding intensifies antisocial behavior and fosters the loss of social cohesion that tends to keep violence at bay. Crime rates and homicide rates are correlated with city size in both Latin America and the United States.
Globalization Breeds Violence
Although demographic trends helped pack the bomb of violence, global integration lit the fuse. The spread of market-based economic policies and the freer movement of goods and capital have not lifted all boats and in some cases may have sunk some further into poverty. Historical gaps in income between poor and rich countries have widened more than ever over the last two decades. As more people perceive that they are worse off, the ensuing strain and frustration become powerful instigators of violence. A recent World Bank study found a clear relationship: Increased income inequality leads to higher homicide rates, while poverty itself also seems to generate violence.
Rapid progress in communications technology also reveals a dark underside. The vast reach of global media has rendered widening income disparities highly visible, while Hollywood images are shown around the globe, providing violent models to children. The number of television sets per 1,000 people almost doubled between 1980 and 1995. It is only possible to hypothesize about the effect of violent media on trends in violence, but decades of research from the United States, Finland, Poland, Israel, and elsewhere confirm that repeated exposure to violent television programs can having lasting effects.
Finally, the growth of international commerce is mirrored by a bleaker side to world trade: the expanding global traffic in arms and weapons, and the violence that accompanies such activities. The drug trade was estimated at $400 billion (about 8 percent of world trade) in 1995, a significant incentive for the calculated and "rational" use of violence. And anecdotal evidence suggests that illegal arms trafficking is a growing business in such disparate places as South Africa, Albania, and Latin America.
Tallying up the Costs
Those who live in violent societies know full well how violence curtails economic growth and destroys physical capital. Over time, these costs can become nearly self-fulfilling, with violence leading to lower investment and a deteriorating economy, which in turn can unleash new bouts of aggression and crime. For example, if homicide rates in Colombia had remained unchanged since the 1960s, total annual investment today would be 20 percent higher.
Violence also undermines the ability of people to lead normal and productive working lives. Fear of homicide and crime reduces people's willingness to work at night, and women suffering from domestic violence are more likely to be absent from work, earn less, or even lose their jobs. Finally, expenditures on violence prevention, treatment for victims, and capture and punishment of perpetrators also take a significant toll on a nation's wealth and productivity.
Peacekeeping Begins at Home
Demographic trends may portend reductions in violence because the number of youth will decline markedly after 2000. However, expanding urban populations, global trade in drugs and weapons, and a spread of the culture of violence could mitigate these demographic shifts. It is nearly impossible to determine which of these influences will prevail.
Ultimately, the most cost-effective violence prevention efforts may result from the implementation of programs tailored to local conditions. Several municipalities - such as Boston and Bogotá, Colombia - have developed innovative and successful violence prevention programs with extensive collaboration among a variety of government and community groups. Such initiatives may include community policing, violence prevention curricula in schools, and handgun control. Indeed, it is both surprising and comforting to realize that the most promising solutions to globalization's discontents are sometimes found at the local and community levels.