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Foreign Policy
Duma 2000
The very fact that politicians and parties are preparing for parliamentary elections in Russia at all is remarkable. If they occur in December, Russian citizens will have voted in three successive parliamentary elections held on time and under law-unprecedented in Russian history. The process under way and the likely results of this vote reveal several promising developments for political stability and political culture in Russia.
First, all major political players now believe that elections are the only legitimate means for assuming power in Russia. Political leaders ranging from Communist Party boss Gennady Zyuganov to liberal Boris Nemtsov are demonstrating their commitment to democracy, making investments in campaign consultants and television clips rather than militias.
Second, the choices offered to voters have narrowed considerably. The 1999 parliamentary ballot will be much shorter than it was in 1995, when 43 political parties vied for votes. Public opinion polls also show that voters who supported small, unsuccessful parties in the last election do not want to waste their votes this time. As a result, a smaller number of parties will receive a greater share of the total vote, an outcome that will help consolidate Russia’s party system.
Third, extremist, antisystem parties have either become marginalized or changed their ways. Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party of Russia once looked like a Nazi facsimile. Today, it is primarily a commercial operation, selling its votes to the highest bidder. The Communist Party is likely to garner the most total votes again. But today’s party doesn’t want to overthrow capitalism; it aspires to reform the market. Fourth, the balance of power within parliament is likely to change for the better after the elections. In the current parliament, the Communists and their allies hold a solid majority. But several organizations spun off from the Communist Party will compete for the same vote. The Communists will retain their core support of 20 percent of the electorate, but no more. The emergence of a new centrist coalition, Fatherland-All-Russia, headed by former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow’s mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, will provide another challenge to the Communists. And Yabloko, the liberal party headed by Grigory Yavlinsky, is poised to win 10 percent of the vote. No single party will be able to dominate.
–M.M.