|
|
|
|
European Affairs
European Perspectives
Norway and the EU: No, No . . . Yes?
By Knut Vollebaek
Norwegians, who have twice rejected EU membership in hotly debated national referendums, tend to get upset when it is suggested that they are not true Europeans. At least until now, they have had every right to maintain that Europe is much more than the European Union, especially as they have always been loyal members of NATO.
As the European Union expands into Central and Eastern Europe, however, those who equate the European Union with Europe seem to be gaining ground, and there are signs that more Norwegians are coming around to the idea that the country's future may lie inside the European Union after all.
Many reasons have been offered to explain why Norwegians have been so reluctant to join the European Union. It is true that Norway is a rich country and can afford to stay outside. But this is not the whole story. Part of the explanation is Norway's history. The word "union" does not have a good connotation in a country that has been in union with other countries (Sweden and Denmark) for nearly 500 years.
As citizens of a small nation, Norwegian voters are used to having direct access to the circles in which decisions are made. Brussels seems too far away. People along the long coasts of Norway, in the deep valleys or in the far North do not feel confident that decision-makers in Brussels will understand their needs. History, psychology and a desire for independence are all elements in Norway's attitude.
Despite not being a member, Norway has developed extensive links with the European Union, which accounts for approximately 75 percent of Norwegian trade. That figure will rise to around 80 percent after the Union is enlarged from 15 to 25 member countries next year. For all practical purposes, Norway is part of the EU single market, through its participation in the European Economic Area, (EEA), and has adopted most EU rules and regulations. Norway has wide-ranging programs for scientific cooperation and student exchanges with the European Union, and participates in justice and police cooperation through the Schengen Agreement that has opened up EU internal borders.
Any Norwegian government, regardless of its view on the membership issue, faces both challenges and opportunities with regard to the European Union. Among the challenges is the fact that Norway has little or no real influence in formulating EU rules and regulations that it has to accept.
The European Union's interest in the main agreement governing cooperation with Norway, the EEA Agreement, has diminished in recent years - not surprisingly, given the European Union's focus on enlargement and the fact that the only other non-EU members of the EEA are Iceland and Liechtenstein. Another challenge is the European Union's closer cooperation on foreign and security policy, which is not covered by Norway's present cooperation agreements.
In the light of these considerations, there has been an interesting development in the opinion polls in Norway. Since last autumn, the polls have shown a majority of Norwegians in favor of joining the European Union. For the first time since the second referendum in 1994, support for membership has increased even among groups such as women and voters in rural areas who were previously among the strongest opponents of EU entry.
An important factor behind this trend may be the EU enlargement, which forced Norway to re-negotiate its free trade agreements with all ten new EU member countries, to secure continued access for Norwegian fish exports to these markets. The re-negotiated agreement will increase Norway's "access fee" to the EU market (tariffs on fish exports) ten times to about $350 million dollars. This might be part of the reason why more people have started wondering if full membership might be to Norway's advantage.
The Europe-wide debate over the Iraq war has also had an impact. With polls showing that Norwegians were as doubtful about the war as many of their fellow Europeans, there may have been an element of solidarity with other EU citizens in the increased support for the European Union.
For the time being, EU membership as such is not on the political agenda. The current coalition government in Norway is composed of parties with differing views on the issue. On the other hand, it can be safely predicted that the question of EU membership will loom large in the general election campaign due to take place in 2005. There can be no telling in advance what the outcome of a new membership debate will be. Any Norwegian government, even one that was entirely in favor of joining the European Union, would have to think twice before trying again.
Knut Vollebaek is Ambassador of Norway to the United States.