CIAO DATE: 03/02

Critical Review

Summer–Fall 1999 (Vol.13 Nos.3–4)

Between Vienna and Cambridge: The Risky Business of New Austrian Business-Cycle Theory

By Barkley J. Rosser, Jr.

Abstract

Tyler Cowen's "New Austrian" theory of business cycles is based on risk analysis and the assumption of rational expectations. This contrasts with the Old Austrian view, which questions the feasibility of measuring economic risk. Despite Cowen's admirable eclecticism, the way he applies risk analysis to business cycles suffers from serious inconsistencies, and his use of rational expectations is mistaken in the face of economic complexity–a phenomenon that was accurately understood by the traditional Austrians.