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CIAO DATE:04/07
Volume 7, Number 3, October 2005
Full Issue (PDF, 169 pages, 689 KB)
Regional Overview: Six-Party Progress Helps Give Peace a Chance (PDF, 16 pages, 86 KB) by Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS
The quarter was highlighted by the beginning and, after a five-week recess, successful conclusion of the long-delayed fourth round of Six-Party Talks. While the Joint Statement issued Sept. 19 was far from a breakthrough, leaving many questions unanswered and most contentious issues unsettled, it did provide a framework for future cooperation by listing mutually agreed upon objectives, to include “the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful manner.” In Southeast Asia, Jakarta and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) also decided to give peace a chance, while coverage of the annual round of ASEAN ministerial meetings focused on which ministers did not attend the ASEAN Regional Forum security dialogue and who would or would not assume the ASEAN chair in mid-2006. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization got Washington’s attention when it called for the U.S. to set a date for the withdrawal of its forces from Central Asia. Finally, World Health Organization officials continued to warn of a potential avian flu epidemic.
U.S.-Japan Relations: Be Careful What You Wish For (PDF, 10 pages, 63 KB) by Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum CSIS
In a show of political derring-do, Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro called a snap election in August after facing resistance to economic reform from his own party. The prime minister read the public mood well: the ballot produced a landslide victory that permitted him to steamroll the opposition both within the Diet and within his party. In theory, Koizumi’s new strength should help the alliance; his new mandate should cover security policies, too. In reality, voters were thinking less expansively. And in practical terms, the political landscape has been so transformed that adjusting to it will take time. The delay hits two important U.S. concerns: redeploying U.S. forces in Japan and lifting the ban on U.S. beef imports. Failure to resolve these issues is ratcheting up pressure in Washington and may even prompt a public falling out. Congressional hearings that evoke the Japan bashing of old may be a harbinger of things to come in the next quarter.
U.S.-China Relations: Katrina Wreak Diplomatic Havoc, Too (PDF, 14 pages, 83 KB) by Bonnie S. Glaser, CSIS/Pacific Forum CSIS
The quarter opened with a 20-hour stopover in Beijing by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. In early August, her deputy Robert Zoellick visited China to launch a senior-level dialogue on strategic issues. Chinese President Hu Jintao’s long-planned visit to the U.S. was postponed due to Hurricane Katrina. Instead, Presidents Hu and Bush met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting. China played an instrumental role in forging a joint statement at the Six- Party Talks. U.S.-China military exchanges picked up this quarter with an exchange of visits by Gen. Liu Zhenwu, the commander of China’s Guangzhou military region, and Adm. William Fallon, the commander of U.S Pacific Command. The economic and trade picture was mixed. Progress was made on strengthening intellectual property rights protection in China. Three rounds of textile negotiations failed to produce an agreement. In July, China abandoned the decade-old yuan-dollar peg, and revalued its currency 2.1 percent.
U.S.-Korea Relations: A Breakthrough at the Six-Party Talks (PDF, 12 pages, 80 KB) by Donald G. Gross, Atlantic Council of the United States
Diplomats at the Six-Party Talks made progress this quarter on the nuclear issue with North Korea. In a joint statement of principles, Pyongyang committed itself to “abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and returning at an early date to the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons and to International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.” In return, North Korea received security assurances, a U.S. and Japanese promise to take steps toward normalization of relations, a South Korean offer of 2 million kilowatts of electricity, and a commitment to implement the agreement sequentially on a reciprocal basis. In the China-brokered joint statement, the U.S. and North Korea further agreed to discuss Pyongyang’s right to develop peaceful nuclear energy and its demand for light-water reactors at a future meeting. Trade issues over Hollywood movie quota, U.S. beef, and U.S.-Korea FTA remained unresolved.
U.S.-Russia Relations: Great Game Redux? (PDF, 6 pages, 54 KB) by Joseph Ferguson, National Council for Eurasian and East European Research
The strategic partnership between the U.S. and Russia still exists in the war on terror, and to a lesser extent in the battle to prevent the proliferation of nuclear material and weapons. But in Central Asia, the relationship between Moscow and Washington has clearly turned a corner, and turned into a competition. And although this author hates to utilize clichés (viz, the reference to the “Great Game” above), the situation in Central Asia is clearly turning acrimonious. The shift from strategic partner to strategic competitor was apparent at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in July. At the meeting, SCO members China, Russia, and four nations of Central Asia called on the U.S. to announce a date for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from bases and facilities in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Moscow and Washington continue to agree to disagree about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In Northeast Asia, relations appear to be status quo, although Moscow appears to be continuing its slow creep toward China.
U.S.-Southeast Asia Relations: Misses and Hits (PDF, 10 pages, 68 KB) by Sheldon W. Simon, Arizona State University
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s decision to bypass the annual ASEAN and ARF meetings in her first year as secretary is seen as a snub by Southeast Asian leaders and interpreted to be a sign of the region’s low importance to Washington. Nevertheless, U.S. security cooperation seems to be increasing with the littoral states in the Malacca Strait, through bilateral exercises with ASEAN states’ armed forces, military sales to Thailand, a new security agreement with Singapore, and continued anti-insurgency training for Philippine forces in Mindanao. Moreover, the U.S.-led multinational Proliferation Security Initiative held its first South China Sea exercise on the interdiction of weapons of mass destruction. Finally, Vietnam was added to the list of Southeast Asian states participating in the U.S. International Military and Education Program.
China-Southeast Asia Relations: Building Integration? (PDF, 14 pages, 79 KB) by Ronald Montaperto, Consultant on Asian Affairs
China’s relations with its Southeast Asian neighbors moved along at a steady pace during the third quarter. In the political sphere, Aug. 20 marked the first meeting of the China-ASEAN Eminent Persons Group in Qingdao. The meeting put the very important ceremonial seal of approval on the growing relations between China and ASEAN. In the political/economic sphere, what could have been a major economic issue with significant negative impact on Chinese relations with ASEAN – regional concerns about Beijing’s decision to change its policy of pegging the value of the yuan to the U.S. dollar in favor of allowing the yuan to float – failed to materialize in any meaningful way. In one sense Beijing merely took a sideways step and succeeded in deferring the time at which the issue of the value of the yuan relative to the dollar and regional currencies will have to be truly resolved; but the positive regional reaction augurs well for future economic relations between Beijing and Southeast Asia.
China-Taiwan Relations: Beijing Prefers to Tangle with the Opposition (PDF, 8 pages, 55 KB) by David G. Brown, The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
The summer saw Beijing extending friendly gestures toward Taiwan – a welcome change. Beijing has worked to build on the visits by opposition party leaders in the spring, while seeking to marginalize President Chen Shui-bian’s administration. Initiatives that China could implement on its own have gone ahead, while those requiring cooperation from Taipei have languished. China conducted its first joint military exercise with Russia in August, and structured the exercise so that people in Taiwan would see it as threatening. Nevertheless, partisan wrangling in Taipei further delayed a decision on adoption of the supplemental arms budget. Cross-Strait trade continued to grow, but at a slower pace. Beijing’s strategy to marginalize Chen will limit progress on cross-Strait functional issues and not necessarily rebound to Beijing’s long-term benefit.
North Korea-South Korea Relations: Full Steam Ahead (PDF, 18 pages, 94 KB) by Aidan Foster-Carter, Leeds University, UK
As if to compensate for the lost years from mid-2004 to mid-2005, when Pyongyang eschewed official contacts with Seoul, the past quarter has indeed seen a packed calendar of meetings: hardly a day went by without one. Moreover, this intense intercourse looks set to continue. As ever, some of these encounters were more formalistic than substantive. Nor has North Korea yet delivered all that it has promised – much less than South Korea would like. Nonetheless, economic progress in particular seems to be moving at last toward sustained cooperation. Security issues are more problematic: while Six-Party Talks on the nuclear issue finally agreed on principles in September, both the interpretation and realization of this accord promise to be thorny. Seoul’s mediating role also raised questions about how far inter-Korean progress was being made at the expense of the ROK’s strained alliance with the U.S. or its rocky relations with Japan.
China-Korea Relations: Six-Party Success and China’s Peninsular Diplomacy (PDF, 8 pages, 60 KB) by Scott Snyder, The Asia Foundation/Pacific Forum CSIS
The Six-Party Talks finally reconvened and even made progress this quarter, concluding with a joint statement of principles that will serve as guidelines for a more specific agreement on how to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis. China was the linchpin and host of the diplomatic effort to achieve an agreement. Although the Bush administration’s willingness to initiate bilateral negotiations with the DPRK inside the six-party framework was a prerequisite for progress and South Korea’s enhanced efforts through a revived inter-Korean dialogue facilitated the process, Chinese diplomacy with North and South Korea was possibly the critical factor in shaping – and limiting – the parameters of a deal. The impact of China’s yuan revaluation reverberated in South Korea this quarter with mixed effect. South Korean companies nervously watched the effect of the revaluation on exchange rate margins on their operations in China.
Japan-China Relations: Summer Calm (PDF, 12 pages, 84 KB) by James J. Przystup, Institute for National Strategic Studies, NDU
During this quarter, China observed a number of anniversaries in Sino-Japanese relations related to the Japanese military action in Asia. China’s leadership took care that the anniversaries, aimed at strengthening Chinese patriotism and the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), would not replicate the anti-Japanese sentiment loosed in April. And they were successful. In Japan, domestic politics took center stage. Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro pushed postal reform legislation. Failure to secure its passage led Koizumi to dissolve the Diet in early August and to go to the polls Sept. 11. Koizumi focused his campaign on the reform issue and avoided discussion of Aug. 15 and Yasukuni Shrine visits. Meanwhile, Japanese diplomacy is absorbed by the Six-Party Talks. One issue did disturb the political and diplomatic calm – the East China Sea territorial dispute. Talks were scheduled to begin in Tokyo at the end of September to address this issue.
Japan-Korea Relations: No Major Changes (PDF, 12 pages, 73 KB) by David C. Kang, Dartmouth College, and Ji-Young Lee, Georgetown University
Japan-Korea relations in the past quarter showed no major surprises, and no major changes. Although there was real progress within the larger context of the Six-Party Talks, the agreement in principle by Japan and North Korea to “normalize their relations in accordance with the Pyongyang Declaration, on the basis of the settlement of the unfortunate past and the outstanding issues of concern,” was both a step forward and yet also the mere reiteration of agreements already made. The real issues – and the real work – will begin in the future, as the two sides begin discussing details of just exactly how to settle the abductee issue and move toward normalized ties. It is significant, however, that Japan was willing to forego greater pressure on North Korea on the abductee issue in favor of a broader agreement with the six parties. With the focus on Six-Party Talks, much of the heat between South Korea and Japan over disputed islands and textbooks faded.
China-Russia Relations: The New World Order According to Moscow and Beijing (PDF, 11 pages, 79 KB) by Yu Bin, Wittenberg University
In three “strikes” during the third quarter, Moscow and Beijing pushed their bilateral relations, qualitatively and quantitatively, toward a more proactive and outward-looking posture. It began with the signing of the Sino-Russian Joint Declaration on the International Order in the 21st Century in the Moscow summit July 1. A few days later in the annual Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO) summit July 5, a significantly enlarged regional security forum – adding India, Iran, and Pakistan as “observers” – called on the U.S. and its coalition members in Afghanistan to set a deadline for U.S. withdrawal from military bases in the territories of the SCO member states (Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan). In late August, the first-ever Sino-Russian joint exercise, code-named Peace Mission 2005, further elevated the strategic partnership between the two continental powers. In the wake of the exercise, Russian military sales to China, too, apparently entered a new phase with new categories of weaponry being offered as well as technological transfers.
About the Contributors (PDF, 4 pages, 36 KB)