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Map of Asia |
CIAO DATE: 03/02
Volume 1, Number 1, July 1999
Full Issue (Download the complete issue in PDF format)
Regional Overview
The bilateral relationship that has seen the greatest amount of turmoil over the past quarter, by almost any measure, is the always volatile U.S.-China relationship. The decided downswing in this relationship has also impacted many other bilateral relationships throughout the region, complicating Sino-Japanese deliberations while raising anxieties among the nations of Southeast Asia and Korea as they try to avoid taking sides in this latest squabble. There are few in Asia who want to see these two elephants either at war or in love; most have a vested interest in seeing Sino-U.S. relations restored to an even keel. The question is, will the leadership in Washington and Beijing exhibit the diplomatic skill and political courage necessary to accomplish this all important task?
U.S. - Japan
Prime Minister Obuchi's official state visit in early May was not exactly sizzling with excitement, but was characterized by a show of warmth and confidence from President Clinton. Obuchi's domestic and international standing was further strengthened by surprising good news about Japan's economy and by the passage of the Defense Guidelines -- not a bad showing for a man earlier dismissed as "cold pizza." Still, U.S.-Japan relations were not risk-free. Surging Japanese steel exports sparked a host of anti-dumping cases and Washington and Tokyo treaded delicately around the issue of Japan's new satellite program. Also, Obuchi's announcement that next year's G-7 Summit would be held in Okinawa refocused attention on unfinished base relocation issues. These issues could become more contentious depending on the relative health of both economies and the ability to maintain cooperation while being sucked into the vortex of U.S. presidential politics.
U.S. - China
One year after President Clinton's visit to China, hailed as a great success and a positive step toward the establishment of a constructive strategic partnership, bilateral dialogue and cooperation on a host of critically important issues are at a standstill and relations are mired in mutual acrimony and distrust. The unfortunate tragedy of NATO's accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade unleashed a nationalistic fervor and provoked a harsh response from the Chinese government. Meanwhile, failure to reach an accord on China's entry into the World Trade Organization during Premier Zhu Rongji's early April visit to the U.S. may prove to have been a colossal blunder. Domestic critics in both capitals are challenging the policies of their respective governments and making it difficult for leaders to follow a course that serves their country's national interests.
U.S. - South Korea
Dealing with North Korea remains the central issue in U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) relations. Despite quite different policy priorities toward Pyongyang, the Clinton and Kim Dae-jung Administrations were able to maintain mutually supportive policies toward North Korea during the past quarter. This was possible because of consultations and accommodation between the administrations in Seoul and Washington, but also because North Korea generally refrained from specific actions that would have made it even more difficult for Seoul and Washington to reconcile their differences.
U.S. - Russia
The Kosovo crisis dominated relations between the U.S. and Russia during this period. Even before NATO commenced its aerial bombardment of Serbia, anti-U.S. and anti-Western sentiment within Russia was running at the highest pitch in recent memory. Whereas Russian antipathy to the expansion of NATO had been confined largely to Moscow and St. Petersburg, the assault on Serbia struck a chord among the broader public. It brought to a head the growing sense of frustration, impotence, and irrelevance felt by most Russians as their nation was sidelined on the international stage and their economy continued to deteriorate. In the wake of Kosovo, we may see a holding pattern on both sides. The Yeltsin administration and the Duma will be preoccupied by upcoming elections, while the Clinton administration will be bracing itself for the next Russian president, who could prove to be an even greater challenge than Boris Yeltsin.
U.S. - ASEAN
There's good news and bad news this quarter when it comes to U.S. relations with the various members of ASEAN. On the plus column, Philippine relations have improved markedly with the passage of the Visiting Forces Agreement, making possible military exercises between the two allies once again. U.S.-Indonesian relations are also on the upswing, given its sudden embrace of democracy. However, relations with America's other formal ASEAN ally, Thailand, remain strained due to U.S. failure to support the bid by Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister to become Director General of the World Trade Organization.
China - ASEAN
Chinese relations with the ASEAN states have remained cordial during the quarter, with the notable exception of Sino-Philippine relations, which have steadily deteriorated and, to some extent, have degraded Philippine bilateral ties with the rest of its ASEAN colleagues. Disagreements over Chinese actions on Mischief Reef caused Philippine President Estrada to cancel a scheduled May visit to Beijing, while a senior Philippines foreign ministry official complained about the Philippines becoming "an orphan" in ASEAN on this issue. Meanwhile, China continued to improve relations with most of the remaining ASEAN states, negotiating a framework for future relations with Malaysia and Thailand and developing a new mechanism to govern Sino-Vietnamese relations.
China - Taiwan
As cross-straits negotiations reopen in anticipation of Wang Doahan's fall visit to Taiwan, the downturn in Sino-U.S. relations is complicating relations between Beijing and Taipei. China remains concerned that U.S. actions in Kosovo may presage similar interference in the PRC's "internal affairs" relating to Taiwan. This can cause a hardening of Chinese positions vis-ý-vis Taiwan and make already sensitive issues like theater missile defense even more contentious. For its part, Taipei realizes that its own interaction with Beijing becomes more difficult whenever U.S.-China relations are either too strained or too close. Taipei sees risks as well as promise in the upcoming cross-straits dialogue.
China - South Korea
Evaluation of China-South Korea relations by necessity entails consideration of China's approach to the Peninsula as a whole. PRC-ROK relations are vibrant and have progressed quickly since diplomatic normalization. Economic ties are significant, and relations have moved well beyond this field into the political and security realms. A great deal of contact between South Korea and China is done secretly or with little public fanfare, primarily so as not to unnecessarily offend North Korea, with which China this year marks a half century of diplomatic relations. Moreover, Seoul and Beijing have proceeded strongly but quietly so as to not complicate respective relations with Washington and others.
Japan - China
In a relationship shadowed by the past and marked by concerns about the future, Japan's relations with China experienced a period of relative calm during the past quarter. Economic cooperation continued, with particular focus on reaching a WTO accession agreement. The two most significant events affecting the long-term development of their bilateral relations occurred outside the Japan-China bilateral framework; namely, the impact of the precipitous decline in Sino-U.S. relations, and the adoption of legislation to implement the revised U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines.
Japan - South Korea
Japan-Republic of Korea (ROK) relations have traditionally been propelled by two countervailing dynamics: the inability to overcome their difficult shared history which has impeded genuine improvements in contemporary relations, and pressing economic and security developments that have often compelled pragmatic cooperation. Fortunately, cooperation clearly prevailed during this period, witness the establishment of communications hotlines between the two militaries and high level meetings between senior officials. Political relations also continued to bask in the afterglow of the earlier Obuchi-Kim Summits. Relations between these key Asian allies are moving in a direction that suits American security interests, but not without reservation. Potential disagreements between the ROK and Japan (and U.S.) over the appropriate response to possible future North Korean provocation could cause a rebirth of antagonism.
Japan - Russia
Russo-Japanese relations remained on track during the past quarter and were highlighted by a brief but significant meeting between Prime Minister Obuchi and Russian President Yeltsin during the G-8 meeting in Cologne. While both sides appear committed to their previously stated goal of achieving a peace treaty "by the year 2000," this goal ó if reached ó is more likely to be a December 31, 2000 New Year's Eve crash project than a January 1, 2000 New Year's Day celebration. The "Northern Territories" issue remains the primary stumbling block. Japanese participation in the U.S. theater missile defense project remains another potential point of contention that might be capitalized upon by Yeltsin's opponents.
China - Russia
Sino-Russian relations have improved steadily in recent years due to mutual concerns about U.S. unilateralism. However, while both sides proclaimed a strategic partnership aimed at promoting a multipolar world, both still placed higher priority on their respective relations with the U.S. than with one another. This could be changing, however, as positions harden, especially in Beijing, in the wake of the Kosovo campaign and the NATO Bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. Now, both sides are seriously discussing a further deepening of their strategic partnership, to include the formation of a formal defense alliance, along with significant arms sales involving state-of-the-art Russian technologies.