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Map of Asia |
CIAO DATE: 02/03
Volume 4, Number 4, Winter 2003
Full Issue (PDF, 166 pages, 6.4MB)
Regional Overview
Multilateral Solutions to Bilateral Problems Help Contain Unilateralist Tendencies (PDF format, 14 pages, 48 kbs) by Ralph A. Cossa, President, Pacific Forum CSIS and Jane Skanderup, Director of Programs, Pacific Forum CSIS
Is George W. Bush becoming "Mr. Multilateralism"? Not exactly! But, even as his administration was releasing another "unilateralist" report on combating weapons of mass destruction and Australian Prime Minister John Howard was keeping the word "preemption" on everyone's lips, President Bush continued to work through the UN Security Council to disarm Iraq while less formally working to build an international consensus to pressure North Korea to come into compliance with its nuclear disarmament commitments. Meanwhile, regional multilateral organizations, both with and without the U.S., took some interesting twists and turns this quarter, blending economics and politics in some unprecedented ways. As the new year began, the economic forecast for East Asia seemed generally (albeit cautiously) positive, as long as promised or planned restructuring and reform agendas are followed and the region, not to mention the U.S. economy, can weather a potential Iraqi storm.
U.S. - Japan
This quarter vindicated the optimism alliance-backers had in Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro. Tokyo continued its support for the U.S.-led war against terrorism and even upped the ante by sending an Aegis-equipped destroyer to the Indian Ocean. When news of North Korea's clandestine nuclear weapons development program broke, concern about a possible split between Washington and Tokyo on dealing with Pyongyang proved unfounded. Comments about Japanese participation in the missile defense program also comfort alliance hawks, but the reaction they prompted reveals that over-reaching is a danger in Japan. Despite the progress of the last quarter, consensus on security issues is still elusive. A similar caution is necessary on the economic front. Japan's economy has slid again into recession and that will constrain Tokyo's efforts to share additional international economic burdens.
U.S. - China
This quarter opened with summitry as Presidents George W. Bush and Jiang Zemin held their third meeting, at Bush's ranch in Crawford Texas. Their discussion and subsequent U.S.-Chinese consultations covered a broad range of issues, but security matters received special attention as North Korea revealed a previously unknown uranium-enrichment program and the Bush administration stepped up its efforts to disarm Iraq. Beijing issued new export control regulations for all major categories of weapons of mass destruction. Bilateral human rights talks took place for the first time in over a year and high-level military contacts resumed with the convening of the fifth Defense Consultative Talks and a visit to China by Commander, U.S. Pacific Command Adm. Thomas Fargo.
U.S. - Korea
This quarter will likely go on record as one of the most troubling in U.S.-Korea relations, at least until next quarter. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly's visit to Pyongyang began a steady decline in U.S.-DPRK relations after Pyongyang reportedly acknowledged having a uranium enrichment program and threatened to restart its frozen nuclear reactor and began removing monitoring devices in an attempt to force the Bush administration to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, growing anti-Americanism in the South continued to steam roll after two soldiers involved in a training accident were acquitted negligent homicide by a U.S. military tribunal. Ruling party presidential candidate Roh Moo-Hyun rode the ensuing anti-American bandwagon to a close election victory. By quarter's end, outgoing President Kim Dae-jung and Roh were echoing Washington's call for immediate North Korea compliance with its nuclear obligations, but both were becoming increasingly critical of Washington's refusal to enter into negotiations with the North.
U.S. - Russia
After a difficult summer, Moscow and Washington returned to focus on certain large-picture issues that have served to bring the two nations together over the past 18 months. Giving positive momentum to the relationship are the war on terrorism and, increasingly, energy cooperation. The November summit meeting between Presidents George Bush and Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg highlighted the goodwill pervading the relationship. Irritants remain, including the war in Chechnya and Russia's relations with Iran and Iraq. Even these, however, have become less divisive. The Chechen hostage crisis in Moscow in late October caused many in the West to look with slightly more sympathy on Russia's dilemma with Chechnya. In the Middle East, Russia moved closer to support of U.S. policy, backing a U.S.-authored UN resolution threatening the use of force in the event of Iraqi noncompliance.
U.S. - Southeast Asia
What a difference a day can make - in this case, Oct. 12, 2002. The terrorist bomb that exploded in a tourist-filled nightclub in Bali, killing nearly 200 people, triggered a significant change both in the political equation in Indonesia and in the overall tenor of U.S. relations with the Southeast Asian states. Bali served to crystallize and energize an emerging regional consensus on the need to counter international terrorism, and on the desirability of closer cooperation both with the United States and among the states of the region to meet this challenge. However, the Bali bombing did not completely transform the landscape. Numerous contentious issues - domestic, bilateral, and multilateral - remain, and the U.S. attack on Iraq, widely expected for early 2003, contained the potential for serious strains and even anti-American violence.
China - Southeast Asia
China capped a year of significant gains in relations with its Southeast Asian neighbors with a series of summit-level agreements with ASEAN. Responding to increasing ASEAN concerns that China's success in attracting foreign investment will keep their economies depressed, Beijing promised early trade liberalization measures, and agreed on a framework for negotiating the world's largest free trade agreement (FTA). A long road remains, and Southeast Asian countries are realizing that a China-ASEAN FTA will require painful structural adjustments on their part. After several years of stalemate, China and ASEAN also agreed on a pledge of restraint in the South China Sea, although its provisions are vaguer than ASEAN wanted. Taiwan continued to seek ways to expand economic and, where possible, political relations in Southeast Asia, but had to backtrack quickly when news broke that President Chen Shui-bian was planning a visit to Yogyakarta in Indonesia in December.
China - Taiwan
In recent months, Beijing has taken a number of steps that show greater flexibility on issues related to Taiwan. Beijing has said that cross-Strait transportation does not have to be called "domestic"; it has agreed to a proposal from opposition members in Taipei to permit charter flights and given up its initial request that some of the charter flights be flown by PRC airlines; and, in his meeting with President George W. Bush in Crawford, President Jiang Zemin indicated that China might reduce missile deployments opposite Taiwan if U.S. arms sales were reduced. A key question is whether these and other moves are just tactical maneuvers or a significant adjustment in Beijing's approach to cross-Strait relations. Beijing's moves represent a challenge for the Chen administration but present opportunities that Taipei and Washington should consider seriously.
North Korea - South Korea
The last quarter of 2002 closed with a rush by Korean automobile manufacturers to invest in the People's Republic of China. China's economic emergence has become a primary driver for Korea's own economic reforms and strategy. By placing North Korea's designated director of a newly established Sinuiju economic zone under arrest, Beijing also made clear that it could put the brakes on North Korea's economic reforms. Likewise, China's economic leverage and potential influence on North Korea became a focal point in shaping a response to Pyongyang's nuclear weapons production program on which U.S. and South Korea have clearly stated differences. It remains to be seen how newly selected leaderships in Beijing and Seoul will manage a maturing and complex Sino-Korean diplomatic relationship - a relationship that may play an increasingly critical role as part of a likely re-ordering of regional ties in the future.
China - Korea
The last quarter of 2002 closed with a rush by Korean automobile manufacturers to invest in the People's Republic of China. China's economic emergence has become a primary driver for Korea's own economic reforms and strategy. By placing North Korea's designated director of a newly established Sinuiju economic zone under arrest, Beijing also made clear that it could put the brakes on North Korea's economic reforms. Likewise, China's economic leverage and potential influence on North Korea became a focal point in shaping a response to Pyongyang's nuclear weapons production program on which U.S. and South Korea have clearly stated differences. It remains to be seen how newly selected leaderships in Beijing and Seoul will manage a maturing and complex Sino-Korean diplomatic relationship - a relationship that may play an increasingly critical role as part of a likely re-ordering of regional ties in the future.
Japan - China
During the last quarter of 2002, Japan's relations with China played second fiddle to relations with North Korea, and, after Oct. 3, the nuclear crisis emerging on the Korean Peninsula. Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro met with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in October and Premier Zhu Rongji in November. Issues of the past - exemplified by the prime minister's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine - and the future - North Korea and free trade agreements - dominated the discussions. As the leaders met to advance cooperation, public opinion surveys in Japan and China pointed to problems in the relationship. Nevertheless, China's new leaders were favorably evaluated in Japan. China's concerns over Japan's surging steel exports caused Beijing to impose formal safeguards on steel imported from Japan. Yet, commercial relations continued to broaden and deepen, with Japanese companies focusing on China as the market of the future.
Japan - Korea
During the last quarter of 2002, Japan's relations with China played second fiddle to relations with North Korea, and, after Oct. 3, the nuclear crisis emerging on the Korean Peninsula. Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro met with Chinese President Jiang Zemin in October and Premier Zhu Rongji in November. Issues of the past - exemplified by the prime minister's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine - and the future - North Korea and free trade agreements - dominated the discussions. As the leaders met to advance cooperation, public opinion surveys in Japan and China pointed to problems in the relationship. Nevertheless, China's new leaders were favorably evaluated in Japan. China's concerns over Japan's surging steel exports caused Beijing to impose formal safeguards on steel imported from Japan. Yet, commercial relations continued to broaden and deepen, with Japanese companies focusing on China as the market of the future.
China - Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin's official visit to China in December proved to be both timely and imperative. Despite the notable improvement in their relations with the U.S. in 2002, both were sensing increasingly stronger winds of war from distant places (Gulf and Iraq) as well as from their door-step (North Korea). A December joint statement signed by Presidents Putin and Jiang reflects bilateral and multilateral issues of mutual concern. In contrast to the 2001 historical friendship treaty, the current statement focuses on specific areas for further coordination and cooperation. The nonpolitical issue areas discussed are more specific and more technical and, therefore, are achievable. The statement also offered a fair assessment of bilateral relations, highlighting 2002 as a year with "dynamic development in all areas." Chinese leaders believe that China-Russia relations are perhaps the best China has ever had with any other major power.
India - East Asia
During the two years since India-East Asia relations were last considered here India has achieved incremental progress in building political, economic, and even limited security ties in East Asia. Still, India is not an integral part of the region's international relations or a critical bilateral relationship for Southeast Asia, China, or Japan. India's relationship with East Asia thus remains the weakest link when compared to the region's other major partners. But India's growing engagement in 2001-2002 both on a bilateral and multilateral basis demonstrates that India has neither bid the region, nor been bidden by it, goodbye! India's "Look East" policy has remained focused on Southeast Asia. Bilaterally, India exchanged high-level visits with nearly every ASEAN member country, and in certain cases more than once. It also made notable strides in its official relationship with ASEAN as an organization, culminating in the inaugural ASEAN-India summit or "ASEAN Plus One" formulation.