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Map of Asia |
CIAO DATE: 08/02
Volume 4, Number 1, April 2002
Full Issue (Download the complete issue in PDF format)
Regional Overview
President George W. Bush's visit to Japan, South Korea, and China and the decision to send U.S. troops to the Philippines to support Manila's efforts to combat terrorism provided long-awaited administration focus on East Asia this quarter. While sticking firmly to his antiterrorist message, Bush also reaffirmed Washington's commitment to the U.S.-Japan alliance as well as his own faith in Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's economic reform efforts. Bush's Seoul visit helped contain the damage caused by his State of the Union reference to North Korea as a member of the "axis of evil." Bush emphasized Washington's willingness to build a "cooperative, constructive" (albeit "candid") relationship with Beijing. A few protests notwithstanding, the temporary deployment of forces to the Philippines was also generally well received. Concerns remain about U.S. unilateralist or "cowboy" tendencies, which were reinforced by the leaking of the Pentagon's Nuclear Posture Review that allegedly called for contingency planning for the use of nuclear weapons against North Korea, China, and others.
U.S. - Japan
President George W. Bush's visit to Tokyo underscored the strength of the U.S.-Japan relationship and the strong personal relationship shared by the president and Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro. U.S. officials continued to applaud Japan's contributions to the war against terrorism and encouraged Tokyo to do more. The honeymoon might not last, however. While officials on both sides of the Pacific agree that the security pillar of the relationship is the strongest it may have ever been, there are mounting concerns about Japan's economy. U.S. policymakers worry that economic weakness could undermine Japan's long-term role within the alliance and the region and have been prodding Japan to take action. But the U.S. must tread carefully. Sharp warnings or a hard line could spark a backlash. Equally worrisome is the prospect of a loss of popular support in Japan for U.S. policies, a shift that could be triggered by the perception of U.S. unilateralism in its foreign policy. Alliance management is more important now than it has ever been.
U.S. - China
President George W. Bush's visit to Beijing was the highlight of Sino-U.S. relations this quarter. President Bush and PRC President Jiang Zemin held in-depth discussions on a broad range of international and bilateral issues and both reaffirmed their commitment to a "constructive, cooperative" relationship. They agreed to intensify high-level strategic dialogue and expand bilateral exchanges and cooperation in a variety of areas. Differences persisted over nonproliferation, Taiwan, human rights, and religious freedom. In March, there were signs that modest progress might be forthcoming later this year in the dispute over Chinese export controls and sales of missile technology. Improvement in the relationship was to some extent set back by Taiwan's Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming's visit to Florida to attend a unofficial conference that included senior Bush administration officials. In protest, Beijing canceled a Chinese Navy ship visit to the United States planned for the latter half of 2002.
U.S. - Korea
This quarter opened tentatively, with North Korea scorning critical Bush administration statements and the U.S. pursuing its campaign against terrorism in Afghanistan. The watershed event of the quarter occurred on Jan. 29 when President Bush, in his State of the Union address, accused North Korea of being a member of the "axis of evil." When President Bush visited Seoul, it was apparent that the White House intended to use the trip to improve U.S.-ROK relations and exercise damage control in the aftermath of the "axis of evil" speech. While Bush was able to allay some of the fears created by the speech, other irritants, such as the U.S. imposition of up to 30 percent tariffs on steel imports and the Yongsan base relocation, continued to needle the U.S.-ROK relationship. While the late March announcement that North-South negotiations would soon resume raises hopes for future progress, much depends on North Korea's intentions, which at this point are still unknown.
U.S. - Russia
Half a year into the U.S.-Russian antiterror partnership, it is once again apparent that allies in wartime are not immune to down cycles in their relations. This is especially true when the partnership is built on shaky foundations and for reasons of expediency rather than strategic necessity. The United States and the Soviet Union found this out in 1941-45 and it is again the case for Moscow and Washington in 2002. This is not to suggest that a new Cold War will ensue once antiterror operations in Central and Southwest Asia cease. In fact, the international situation shows promise of significant U.S.-Russian cooperation in the future. Nevertheless, as this year's first quarter indicated, it will take concerted efforts from both sides to make this partnership a long-lasting affair.
U.S. - Southeast Asia
In a wide-ranging visit throughout Southeast Asia this March, FBI Director Robert Mueller carried the message that the United States believed al-Qaeda operatives were located in several ASEAN states and that the U.S. government was prepared to assist regional governments in locating and apprehending terrorists. Mueller's visit was stimulated by the discovery of a plot to bomb the U.S. Embassy in Singapore, which was thwarted by the arrests of dozens of people in Singapore and Malaysia. The plot apparently involved terrorist cells in these neighboring states as well as in Indonesia - all with suspected ties to al-Qaeda. In the Philippines, the United States has begun advising and training Philippine forces in the use of modern counterterrorist technology to enhance prospects for capturing the Abu Sayyaf terrorist gang.
China - Southeast Asia
China rounded off a series of high-level visits to Southeast Asian capitals that began last year with a visit by PRC President Jiang Zemin to Vietnam. The relationship is still troubled by border problems, and Jiang's trip was higher on pomp and atmospherics than actual achievements. Indonesia's President Megawati Sukarnoputri made her first visit to China in March. Economic and trade goals were at the top of the agenda, but she was clearly seeking China's political support as well at a time when her government faces international criticism on issues ranging from antiterrorism to human rights. Trade and transnational crime issues along China's southern borders are increasingly gaining Beijing's attention. China's efforts to woo Southeast Asian governments, and its proposal for a China-ASEAN Free Trade Area last year, may give ASEAN governments some welcome additional bargaining leverage as their economies struggle to recover.
China - Taiwan
The effects of Taiwan's legislative elections and China and Taiwan's accessions to the WTO rippled through cross-Strait relations this quarter, but did not produce any breakthrough in political dialogue. In January, PRC Vice Premier Qian Qichen made an important statement indicating flexibility in Beijing's attitude toward Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party. In Taipei, government leaders further loosened restrictions on cross-Strait trade and investment and emphasized their desire for talks on economic issues, which Beijing continued to rebuff. U.S. President George W. Bush expressed strong support for Taiwan during his Asia trip. Taiwan Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming visited the U.S. That, together with other U.S. actions, has sparked new concerns in Beijing about the direction of U.S. policy toward Taiwan. While Beijing's handling of President Bush's visit indicated the importance it places on relations with the U.S., Beijing's concerns over the Tang visit have raised clouds over the planned visit of PRC Vice President Hu Jintao to the U.S.
North Korea - South Korea
First, a confession. Because of travel commitments, this article was first drafted in mid-March. Its tone thus reflects the chill in inter-Korean ties at that time. But I did note that "surprises can never be ruled out" - and sure enough, on March 25 came the news that senior presidential adviser and ex-unification minister Lim Dong-won, the architect of the Sunshine Policy, will go to Pyongyang in early April as South Korean President Kim Dae-jung's special envoy. At first glance it looks driven by concerns about the U.S., such as the Pentagon's leaked Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and U.S. President George W. Bush's refusal to certify that North Korea is fully in compliance (except at the Yongbyon site) with the 1994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework. While hope springs eternal even in this jaded breast, we shall see if this visit, unlike its many predecessors, ushers in a new phase and a sustained peace process - or is just the latest stop-go.
China - Korea
The dramatic entry of 25 North Korean refugees into the Spanish Embassy in Beijing - an event staged by a network of international North Korean human-rights activists - has highlighted the plight of North Korean refugees, put at risk an informal network of primarily South Korean nongovernmental organizations that had assisted North Korean refugees to come to Seoul, and presented the governments in Beijing and Seoul with a knotty issue they have repeatedly tried to avoid. Although the trade relationship continues to develop at a breakneck pace with South Korean efforts to crack China's telecommunications and Internet services sectors, China's exports to South Korea these days are not so impressive: North Korean refugees, drugs, illegal migrants, and an increasingly serious "yellow dust" of spring. The real action in the relationship this quarter has been driven by NGOs and business interests. The two governments are struggling simply to keep up with events on the eve of the 10th anniversary of Sino-ROK normalization.
Japan - China
On Jan. 7, the Asahi Shimbun devoted its editorial to the Japan-China relationship. The Asahi observed that relations with China over the past 30 years had endured a number of twists and turns, but looking back, saw that ties have gradually deepened and contributed to regional peace and stability. The original constructs for the relationship, Japan as economic superpower and China as the world's largest developing country, have experienced a qualitative change as Japan has stagnated for more than a decade while China has attracted foreign investment and become the world's factory. In Japan, this has resulted in concerns about a loss of competitiveness and apprehension over the emergence of China as an economic threat. And, as underscored by last year's controversy over agricultural safeguards, economic problems have become politicized. Both governments are trying to honor the spirit of the 30th anniversary of normalization of relations and are largely succeeding despite encountering occasional rough waters.
Japan - Korea
The new year got off to a good start as South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro exchanged messages pledging to strengthen bilateral cooperation for the co-hosting of the upcoming World Cup and proclaiming 2002 the "Year of People Exchanges" between the two countries. A glimmer of light shone on long-frozen normalization dialogue between Japan and North Korea, but Pyongyang's tactical motives do not raise confidence that a thaw is evident. Prospects were least bright in trilateral policy coordination involving the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. The quarter closed with the announcement that special envoy Lim Dong-won would be dispatched to Pyongyang in an effort to restart inter-Korean dialogue. What was most significant about this surprise announcement in the context of trilateral policy coordination was that there again appeared to be little prior consultation and only notification of the allies beforehand.
China - Russia
For Moscow and Beijing, the Taliban's demise was by no means a harmless "regime change" but the beginning of another round of geostrategic posturing with the U.S. in their highly volatile backyard. Within a month, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty was dead, and a new, proactive nuclear strategy was in place. As critical as they were of the "axis of evil" Bush doctrine, Russia and China were to be further bewildered and angered in early March when they learned the Nuclear Posture Review treated them as part of a "gang of seven" for possible U.S. nuclear strikes. Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing worked hard to salvage the leftovers from the massive and strategic return of the United States to Central Asia.
Occasional Analysis
Contrary to the stereotypical view that Japanese foreign policy is generally passive, reactive, and driven primarily by economics, the reality is that Tokyo has sought to exercise diplomatic initiatives in Southeast Asia over the past 25 years. Ironically, Japan plays a larger political role in Southeast Asia than in its more immediate Northeast Asian neighborhood. Two trends might limit Japan's ability to raise its profile in Southeast Asia. First, Japan, the region's "leading goose" during the 1970s and '80s, has suffered more than a decade of economic stagnation. Second, China is an "ascending dragon," which will underpin greater Chinese economic and political influence in Southeast Asia. Unless and until Japan seriously embarks on structural reforms, the nation will lack the resources and prestige to support a more ambitious foreign policy toward Southeast Asia.