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Map of Europe |
Volume II, Number 1, March 2003
The Changing Security Model in Post–Soviet Central Asia by Gennady Chufrin (PDF, 7 pages, 110.3 KB)
There are few regions in the world that have experienced such a profound and lasting impact from the events of September 11, 2001 as Central Asia. Ever since the U.S.–led anti–terrorist operation in the wake of these events began in the region, in the form of the a military campaign directed against the Taliban regime and Al Qaeda network in Afghanistan, other Central Asian states all of them former Soviet constituent republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) have also been deeply influenced by these developments, although each of them to a different degree. This paper analyzes the changes in the security situation in post–Soviet Central Asia following the military defeat of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan; the influence of the newly established U.S./NATO military deployment in the region on the policies of regional states; and the reaction of Russia and China to these changes.
Caspian Oil and Regional Security by Malik Shonbayev (PDF, 6 pages, 142.2 KB)
Since gaining their independence in the early 1990s, the Caspian countries have intensified their activities in the exploitation of the natural resources of the Caspian Sea. This fact has drawn the attention of a number of countries (the U.S., Turkey, China, Middle Eastern countries) to the region. The main reason for this attention was the discovery of promising finds in a number of deposits as well as the launching of the pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).
U.S. Policy Toward the Caspian and Black Sea Region by Tomas Valasek (PDF, 8 pages, 106.3 KB)
The story of U.S. policy toward the countries on the Black and Caspian Seas is a brief one. Like other Soviet republics whose independent histories were interrupted by Russian (later Soviet) domination, the countries in the former Soviet south only regained their independence in the 1990s. During the Soviet era, Moscow’s control over its vast, eleven time–zone–sized territory was so complete that Washington’s Soviet policy barely acknowledged the diverse ethnic, cultural, political, and religious traditions of Caucasus and Central Asia, which are vastly different from those of Russia. Nor did the region’s mineral riches garner much U.S. interest, squeezed as they were under the thumb of Russian control, with a hostile Iran and an unstable Afghanistan to the south.
The Significance of Caspian Oil and Gas for Diversifying Energy Imports to the Visegrad Group Countries by Jacek Cichocki (PDF, 5 pages, 92.4 KB)
Since the break–up of the USSR, when the first Western oil concerns appeared in the Caspian Sea region (first in Azerbaijan, then in Kazakhstan), a discussion has been going on about the significance of Caspian oil and gas. The primary issue is the diversification of energy import sources to Europe. West European countries perceive increasing their supplies from the Caspian region as a way to lessen their dependence on oil coming from OPEC–associated countries, especially the Persian Gulf. For Central Europe, and for the Visegrad Group countries in particular, 2 Caspian energy resources may become a potential alternative to the oil imported from (or transported through) Russia that currently satisfies most of the demand in these countries.
Problems Associated with Radicalism of Islamic Organizations in Kyrgyzstan by Vycheslav M. Khamisov (PDF, 8 pages, 130.9 KB)
Since the achievement of independence in the countries of Central Asia, an Islamic revival has begun to take place. Eighty percent of the Kyrgyz Republic’s five million inhabitants practice Islam. The last decade has seen the number of Islamic organizations in Kyrgyzstan multiply 31 times. In 1991 there were 39 Muslim mosques in the country; now their number is 1,225. This essay will examine this Muslim resurgence in Kyrgyzstan, especially in the form of extremist organizations, and will examine some of its consequences for the young republic.
Regional Aspects of Kyrgyzstan Energy Security by Lyudmila Baum (PDF, 6 pages, 89.7 KB)
Energy independence, one of the principal elements of any system of national security, is an unconditional priority in the economic policy of any state. The energy sector in Kyrgyzstan cannot expect in the short term to become a significant source of economic growth for the country, but this sector itself has sufficient potential to contribute to general economic growth and fiscal stability in the medium and long terms. In addition, the energy sector could promote the integration of the state into the world community as well as defend its national interests.
Balancing American Involvement In Uzbekistan by Peter K. Forster (PDF, 15 pages, 141.6 KB)
During the struggle between Iranian Prime Minister Mossadegh and the Shah in April 1953, John Foster Dulles noted that under normal circumstances the United States did not want to support dictators (e.g., the Shah), but in times like these, . . . we know that we cannot make a transition without losing control of the whole situation. Dulles's comment epitomized a fundamental truth of foreign policy, namely that security remains an irreducible national goal and security is well served by stability. Nonetheless, subjugating foreign policy exclusively to security concerns often has unanticipated and unsavory results. Since its emergence as a global power in the late 1800's, U.S. foreign policy has been governed by six principles: peace, prosperity, stability, security, defense, and democracy.
Weapons of Mass Destruction: Rhetoric and Realities by Ronald Higgins (PDF, 10 pages, 113.3 KB)
Whether or not the elimination of weapons of mass destruction from much of the world (WMD) eventually proves practicable, it is surely necessary to reduce if not eliminate the current flow of loose, emotive, and sometimes extravagant language about them. Such rhetoric, whether from political, official, or media sources, not only misleads and may alarm public opinion but could also lead to clumsy and even dangerous thinking in the policy–making process itself.
The Path of Transition: From the Past towards Efficient Armed Forces by Michael H. Clemmesen (PDF, 15 pages, 142.4 KB)
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have now succeeded in achieving the main goal of their security policy aspirations: all three were invited to join NATO at the November Prague Summit. The mature political and economic development in the three very different states has made this step natural. During the last five or so years the three have also gradually accelerated their efforts to prepare their developing armed forces for a role in the Alliance. This task has not been and will not be easy. One of the reasons is that this task included first a build–up from scratch and thereafter a total reform of those first structures. The latter challenge is similar to that required everywhere in the Central and Eastern European armed forces: to make them focused and cost–effective.
Think Tanks and the Transnationalization of Foreign Policy by James G. McGann (PDF, 6 pages, 95.9 KB)
We live in turbulent times where the only constant is change, where the unthinkable has become a dark reality, and where the line between domestic and international politics is increasingly blurred. The promise and peril of globalization has transformed how we view international relations and has opened the policymaking process to a new set of actors, agendas, and outcomes. International relations was once the exclusive domain of diplomats, bureaucrats, and states. But today’s policy–makers must consider a diverse set of international actors when formulating foreign policy that includes organizations such as CNN, al–Jazeera, the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Greenpeace, Deutsche Bank, Al– Qaeda, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). While these actors were not born of globalization, they have been empowered by it. Consider the simple fact that in 1950 there were only fifty nation states and a limited number of intergovernmental and non–governmental organizations operating in the world and one begins to understand the complexity and unique challenges policy–makers face when trying to fashion an effective foreign policy. The challenges for U.S. policy–makers are even more daunting given America’s superpower status, global commitments, and the range of transnational actors and issues it must confront on a daily basis.
Having an Impact: Think Tanks and the NATO Enlargement Debate by Ronald D. Asmus (PDF, 4 pages, 82.8 KB)
There are moments in the evolution of U.S. foreign policy where think tanks have had a decisive influence in reshaping conventional wisdom and setting a new course on a key strategic issue. The debate over NATO enlargement in the early 1990s was one of those moments. U.S. think tanks played a key role in developing and building support for the U.S. decision to enlarge NATO as part of a broader strategy of overcoming the continent’s Cold War divide and building a Europe whole and free and at peace. It was a dramatic period. The collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe in 1989, and the disintegration of the Soviet Union itself two years later, had also left in its wake a vacuum in terms of Western policy in the region. The democratic revolutions of 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe had taken the West largely by surprise and, as welcome as they were, they nonetheless overturned many of the underlying assumptions that had previously guided Western thinking and policy.
International and National Security in the World Community in the Twenty–First Century: Outlines of New Realities by Evgeny N. Moshchelkov (PDF, 4 pages, 86.7 KB)
The turns of centuries and even millennia are naturally associated in public opinion with fundamental changes in various social spheres. Therefore, one should expect on the threshold of the twenty–first century that the world order that was established after the Second World War and ensured a more or less stable world community for several decades should change. As a result, the paradigm of international and national security that was dominant throughout this historical period has ceased to work.
Casualty Aversion In Tepid War by Pascal Girardin (PDF, 26 pages, 218.4 KB)
The end of the twentieth century was characterized by a large increase in the number of military interventions around the world. The framework of military missions has considerably broadened and the scope of missions now embraces many new dimensions, from the fight against terrorism to peace support operations. Technology, as an enabler, tends to hide the role played by people. Man, because he is mortal and irreplaceable, remains absolutely central to the conduct of war. As Martin van Creveld states: Armed conflict will be waged by men on earth, not robots in space. Hence the eternal problem that commitment true commitment to the point of death cannot and must not be avoided. Casualty aversion appears to be a factor that increasingly shapes ideas within this debate. Although this phenomenon is often mentioned, the idea may not actually be very clear in many minds. The aim of this paper will be to lead the reader on a hunt to discover the roots of the concept of casualty aversion. It will demonstrate that casualty aversion cannot be understood and appreciated by a mere description of its symptoms, but that its true origins lie in the relationship between societies, violence, and death.