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Culture and Conflict
No. 8, Winter 1992
Conflicts After Bipolarity
This issue continues the discussion begun by the first issue, concerning " the prolongation of conflicts ", at a more structural level. How will armed conflicts develop in the future ? What is happening now that the East-West confrontation and bipolarity have disappeared ? The logic of the actors, the reasons for prolongation induced by the socialisation of war and the difficulties for armed people to accept returning to a civilian way of life are anlaysed, as well as the new context after bipolarity. The development of recent conflicts can be analysed via three dynamic movements : globalisation, fragmentation, transnationalisation. Globalisation and fragmentation are analysed as two opposite dynamics. Some analysts only see globalisation and speak of unipolarity, others only see fragmentation and speak of " chaos ", " southern threat ", or " clash of civilisations ". New theories propose combining globalisation and fragmentation in order to understand the " turbulences " of the present World, but they lack a clear distinction between globalisation, fragmentation and transnationalisation. This last dynamic, is however, not the result of the first two but follows its own logic.
The collapse of the Soviet system and the consequent end of the Cold War, contrary to what was expected among Western and Eastern elites, did not lead to a " reverse normalisation ". The post-Cold War period is thus characterised by a multiplicity of aspects. The international system is not " new ", but " loosened ". Its main characteristics are the universalisation of markets and the growth of ethnic, cultural and regional differences. This change affects all factors of political life, and particularly military thinking.
Even though the Khmer Rouges do not seem presently capable of assuming political power in Cambodia, their potential influence should not be underestimated : their political organisation is sophisticated, their propaganda coherent and they are capable of adapting themselves to the new post-bipolar situation. It would be wrong to consider the Khmer Rouges exclusively as blood-thirsty monsters. The revival of the movement is due, to a large extent, to the weakness, or perhaps incoherence, of the UN forces, which have been " fooled " by the Khmer Rouges, and to the incapacity of the Phnom Penh government to react. Without forgetting the military aspect of the conflict, the author centres on the economic factors which have turned Cambodia into a game-field of opposing economic interests.
The collapse of the Soviet system and the end of bipolarity have not contributed to peace in the Horn of Africa. Regional developments - whether in Ethiopia, Sudan (the only country in the region that really benefited from the fall of Mengistu), Somalia or even Djibouti - continue being influenced, not so much by external factors and the role played by the Soviets, than by a phenomenon of internal and international resonances.
Current upheavals in South Africa have not spared the South African Police (SAP), viewed by the Black population as an instrument of repression, and by Whites as inefficient in controlling the sweeping tide of crime. In order to combat this loss of credibility in a worsening context, the Government created a new specialised force on the 1st of January 1992, the ISD (Internal Stability Division). The mission of this new force is dual : prevention and stabilisation. It distinguishes itself from the SAP, the latter playing a more traditional role in assuming the task of pacifying without recourse to repression. The author commends this governmental decision, but deplores the fact that it came so late.
In contrast to other regions, conflicts in Central America seem to be on the wane. It looks as if the new international system ultimately had a " positive " effect, i.e., in abating the intensity of conflicts or even in putting an end to them. This lull cannot be exclusively ascribed to the disappearance of the Soviet block ; it is largely due to the efforts of the regional and sub-regional powers, mainly the USA.
Since the late 1980s, India's public life is dominated by a Hindu-Muslim dispute concerning the site of Ayodhya, sacred to Hindus, who wish to build a temple in place of the existing mosque. This conflict is far from being an exclusively religious or cultural one. Nonetheless, the electoral success of Hindu nationalist movements in 1990 and 1991, particularly of the BJP (Indian People's Party), can be partly explained by their " instrumentalist " use of Ayodhya. This strategy implied that the BJP should continue mobilising the masses, although this was inconsistent with its desire to play a governmental role. The December 1992 crisis, at the time when the mosque was destroyed, revealed the weakness of this strategy, even though the repression set in motion by New Delhi turned the attackers into victims.
The Gulf crisis and the collapse of Eastern Europe have marginalised the Maghreb and its crises on the global scene. However, its links with Europe still place it in an important position. The European continent is at the same time a pole of attraction and of rejection. The construction of a united Europe has turned the continent into a fortress, the conquering of which starts at the queues for visas (although the migratory stream remains significant). Moreover, the immigrant population and its descendants play an important political role in the relations between European and Maghreb governments. A feeling of exclusion predominates, but it is realised that this society that excludes also exerts an irresistible attractive and intruding force.
Among contemporary outbreaks of violence, the greatest ones are the result of mobilisation of ethnic, political or religious communities against repressive governments or rival groups. Such movements cause many passive victims ; the very existence of the movements hinges on the willing self-sacrifice of their members : a return to the time of the martyrs. However today's sacrificial strategies are played out in a new environment in which others intervene : third parties, spectators, judges, mediators and those moved by compassion, justice and solidarity, and who are strangers to the conflict. This development has brought about a " market value of victims " ; groups are judged on quantitative criteria. The fluctuations of this market reproduce the instrumental utilisation of " martyrs ".
In a " turbulent " World centralising and decentralising forces confront each other creating political tensions, causing harm to all forms of power, and ultimately threatening the very foundations of the State. New legal constructions may play an important role in this respect. James Rosenau analyses the forces at work and examines the capacity of constitutional reforms to impart structure to current dynamics in order to help nations to live together. He points out to the advantages and limits of such reforms.