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Are elections for a second-term president always a referendum on the incumbent?

Usually, but the task of an incumbent can be to disqualify his opponent if he is having trouble.

What traits are voters looking for in the next president?

Someone who can lead the country, someone who has a plan for the economy, someone who is in touch with their life and rescues the middle classes.

What are the key electoral issues for Democrat voters?

Jobs and the economy dominate.

What have the candidates gained from the millions of dollars spent so far?

Obama has helped turn this into a choice rather than a referendum. Obama has energized some of the drop-off voters. Romney has made it a contest and got over the business of being a Mormon candidate.

If you were Obama's campaign manager, what one idea would you plant in voters' minds?

That Obama has a concrete plan to create jobs and is on the side of your family. Romney is a Bain & Co executive who made millions at the expense of working people and put it in offshore accounts.

What label fits this year's target undecided voter?

Waitress Mom - independent, white, married mom, aged 55.

What will make her decide on polling day?

Who is going to do a better job for her family on the economy.

What does Romney's choice of vice-president say about him?

That he is having trouble consolidating his base.

How many Electoral College votes do you predict will each candidate get?

No comment.

Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research, is a Democratic political strategist