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8%

Unemployment

American voters have told pollsters that unemployment falling to 8% would convince them that Barack Obama is doing a good job with the economy. The current rate is 8.1%, well below the peak of 10.2%t in October 2009. But this is still high in historic terms. In all elections since 1972, only Ronald Reagan has won re-election with an unemployment rate of over 7%, notes Michael Tomasky, a liberal columnist. Obama could do the same, he says, if voters feel ‘a definite corner has been turned.'

50.5%

Minorities

In 2011, for the first time white babies were outnumbered by those born to minority ethnic groups, which provided 50.5% of all babies, according to the US Census Bureau. Whites will still be a majority overall until 2040, but this statistic has sharpened the debate about immigration and highlighted the importance of minority votes. In 2008 Obama won 69% of the Hispanic vote and 95% of the African American vote, and he needs to repeat those types of scores if he is to win. The tough stance against illegal immigration by the presumptive Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, is likely to give Obama the advantage with Hispanics. But Obama's endorsement of gay marriage might hurt him.

56%

Women

‘I like hanging out with women' Obama said on a daytime TV show on May 15. True or not, he powered to victory in 2008 with 56% of the female vote and he needs to shore up that constituency to win again. During the Republican primaries, when candidates were vying to be the most socially conservative, Obama's female support held up. But some recent polls suggest that Romney could now be in the lead. John Zogby, a pollster, says Romney leads 47 to 41 among married women, traditionally a conservative voting bloc, but trails amongst single women 58 to 26. One analyst suggests that white women with college degrees could be Obama's ‘last line of defence.'

$8bn

Election spending

The 2012 elections will be the most expensive in history. Obama has set a target of raising $1 billion - way ahead of his record $760 million in 2008. As a whole, the cost of campaigning in 2012 which - apart from the presidential race - includes state, congressional and municipal elections is estimated at an eye-watering $8 billion. In the last presidential election, Obama outspent his republican rival John McCain more than two to one. But Romney has an advantage thanks to a change in the law which allows Super Political Action Committees, or Super-PACs, to raise unlimited funds, in addition to what the candidate raises. So far 545 Super-PACs have raised $205 million, most of it for Republican-alligned causes. Super-PACs are not permitted to coordinate with the candidate, but they can flood the airwaves with attack ads, often more vicious than the official campaign would tolerate.

9

Swing states

The 2012 election is likely to be decided by the results in a small number of swing states where support for Republicans and Democrats is finely balanced. Candidates will focus a lot of their attention - and campaign spend - on these states. The Fix, a Washington Post blog, lists 9: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. This might suggest a relatively easy path to victory for Obama, but Republicans point out that his 2008 victory in most of these states was anomolous and unlikely to be repeated.