CIAO DATE: 03/2014
Volume: 37, Issue: 1
Spring 2014
Strategic Recalibration: Framework for a 21st-Century National Security Strategy' (PDF)
Bruce W. Jentleson
Between retrenchment and reassertiveness, the U.S. should remain deeply and broadly engaged in the world through a strategy of recalibration that would reappraise U.S. interests, reassess U.S. power, and reposition its leadership role to today’s dramatically changing dynamics. The key is to shift the debate from how much the U.S. should do to what it should do.
A Strategy of Discriminate Power: A Global Posture for Sustained Leadership (PDF)
Michael J. Mazarr
The United States does not need a new grand strategy, but a new concept for developing more innovative and economical ways to achieve its long-standing, and widely accepted, existing one. The best candidate for such a concept could be called ‘‘discriminate power,’’ outlined here.
Sizing U.S. Ground Forces: From ''2 Wars'' to ''1 War + 2 Missions'' (PDF)
Michael O'Hanlon
U.S. ground forces should plan for the capacity to fight one prompt, large-scale combat operation along with two mid-sized and longer-term multilateral stabilization missions. Yet, this construct still does not allow cuts to the Army below roughly 425,000 to 450,000 active-duty soldiers.
Military Humanitarianism: Syria Hasn't Killed It (PDF)
Thomas G. Weiss
Despite not leading to action in Syria to date, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is not dead, but navigating ongoing trade-offs among legality, feasibility, and legitimacy. At least now there is a double-standard of inconsistency, where there used to be only a single standard: do nothing.
The Myth of Petroleum Independence and Foreign Policy Isolation (PDF)
Sarah A. Emerson, Andrew C. Winner
The startling uncertainty associated with three changes in both global trade flows and U.S. political-military commitments will impact Persian Gulf stability and great power relations in ways that will force analysts and policymakers around the world to rethink energy and foreign policy.
How Autocracies Fall (PDF)
Erica Frantz, Andre Kendall-Taylor
Since the 1950s, the coup has been by far the most common way autocrats leave office. But new global data shows that autocrats are increasingly vulnerable to mass-led revolts, not coups. What's more, revolts are the most likely way to sweep out the entire political regime and result in democratization.
Identifying Truly Fragile States (PDF)
Seth Kaplan
Some countries pass through moments of crisis relatively easily, reorienting themselves within reasonable periods of time, while others are fundamentally fragile, stagnating or spiraling into violence. What constitutes real fragility, and what can be done to alleviate it?
Agenda for a New Great Power Relationship (PDF)
Wu Xinbo
China—U.S. relations turned downward over most of Obama’s first term. As its second term proceeds, however, there are definite opportunities to expand bilateral cooperation and manage differences, starting with five key issues, to help avoid the historical tragedy of major power conflicts.
East Asia's Maritime Disputes: Fishing in Troubled Waters (PDF)
Alan Dupont, Christopher G. Baker
Conventional narratives have largely ignored that, in Chinese eyes, the rich fishing grounds of the East and South China seas are as critical to China’s future food security as oil and gas are to its energy future. If Beijing does not moderate its policy to protect and defend this resource, if necessary by force, the consequences could endanger regional stability and even China’s own long-term security.
The South China Sea is Not a Flashpoint (PDF)
Brendan Taylor
Beijing’s purported energy security fears in the South China Sea are often exaggerated, as are both the interests of Asia’s great powers and questions of honor in the region. But while the South China Sea is not a flashpoint, there are dangers in continuing to refer to it as one.