CIAO DATE: 02/2014
Volume: 36, Issue: 4
Fall 2013
UNLOCKING THE ALAWITE CONUNDRUM IN SYRIA (PDF)
Jomana Qaddour
Alawites surely recognize that their long-term interests do not lie with the Assad regime, but they are frightened by the precedent set by de-Ba’athification in Iraq. The opposition and international community must acknowledge four major issues to help assuage their concerns and construct a post-Assad Syrian state.
WHY TEHRAN WON'T ABANDON ASSAD(ISM) (PDF)
Mohsen Milani
The longevity of the civil war has been a priceless gift to Tehran, even as it has ominously metastasized to Syria’s neighbors. How far will Iran, particularly after the election of President Hassan Rouhani, go to protect the repressive house the Assads have built, and why?
BRINGING THE UNITED STATES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE EAST (PDF)
Shadi Hamid, Peter Mandaville
In the region more widely, it is time to change U.S. policy with the adequate imagination and ambition required of any response to the Arab uprisings. But policymakers need a strategy they can realistically implement within very palpable economic and political constraints. Here's one idea...
BALANCING WITHOUT CONTAINMENT: A U.S. STRATEGY FOR CONFRONTING CHINA'S RISE (PDF)
Ashley J. Tellis
Beijing’s rise threatens a power transition at the core of the global system. Yet China is tied to that system through dense economic linkages, making containment infeasible. Instead, Washington should pursue a four-pronged kind of balancing strategy that has not been attempted before.
TIES THAT BIND: STRATEGIC STABILITY IN THE U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP (PDF)
Thomas Fingar, Fan Jishe
An American and Chinese expert jointly argue that at least three fundamental factors, which can be further strengthened, are increasingly reinforcing one another to improve bilateral strategic stability, despite concerns over five challenges to that stability that must be addressed.
CHINA'S UNRAVELING ENGAGEMENT STRATEGY (PDF)
Jeffrey Reeves
What for years has been seen as the core of China’s most stable relations—economic exchanges with small and developing states on its periphery such as Mongolia, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar—has now become counterproductive and a source of China’s self-defeating foreign policy.
SIFTING THROUGH INTERDEPENDENCE (PDF)
Thomas Wright
States have increasingly begun to hedge against the risks and volatility of interdependence. With these efforts likely to accelerate over the next decade, how should integration and interdependence be strategically managed--encouraging positive elements like trade ties while mitigating negative ones--to help produce a stronger and more sustainable international order?
JAPAN UNDER ABE: TOWARD MODERATION OR NATIONALISM? (PDF)
Mike M. Mochizuki, Samuel Parkinson Porter
Because Abe need not face another national election until summer 2016, Japan may finally have a stable government for the first time in almost a decade. But will the July 2013 electoral victory embolden him to pursue his nationalist agenda, or will he remain moderate and pragmatic?
FIGHTING THE RESOURCE CURSE: UGANDA'S PIVOTAL MOMENT (PDF)
Jack Mosbacher
A recent oil discovery marks a turning point not just for Uganda, but for all of East Africa as the region becomes a major player in the world’s oil market over the next decade. Here's how Uganda and others can avoid the "resource curse" of endemic corruption, instability, and economic underperformance.
THE CONTINUING CHALLENGE OF DEMOCRACY IN THE AMERICAS (PDF)
Eric Farnsworth
U.S. policy toward the Americas is at a crossroads: its regional influence is waning and its strategic thinking has essentially collapsed. Washington continues to give lip-service to a united hemisphere based on democratic values, but the region has moved on, requiring a more varied policy.
LOOKING TOWARD 2014 (PDF)
Charles E. Cook
What will the 2014 election be about? Most predict minimal change in the House, while six seats will determine whether Democrats retain or lose their Senate majority, but this set of metrics can help better gauge whether 2014 is likely to be a local or a "wave" election, and who might win.