CIAO DATE: 07/2013
Volume: 36, Issue: 2
Spring 2013
Disarmament and Other Nuclear Norms (PDF)
Lawrence Freedman
There is not great cause for disarmament optimism, in part because nuclear arsenals do not connect in a systemic way, which might allow them to be drawn down in a coordinated effort. The challenge is not to re-assert an old norm of disarmament, but to prevent the erosion of the old norms of deterrence, non-proliferation, and of non-use.
Prague as the Nonproliferation Pivot (PDF)
C. Raja Mohan
The Prague Agenda was the last gasp of arms control theology from another era. Washington must recognize that the rest of the world does not view WMD proliferation in as dire terms as it does, while nonproliferation will have to come to terms with the new constraints on the exercise of U.S. power.
Revitalizing the Prague Agenda (PDF)
Dingli Shen
Without improving major power relations, it is unrealistic to count on the willingness of nuclear weapons states to cut nuclear arms much further and faster. Hope remains, however, that U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China relations could improve in the next few years.
What Has Changed Since Prague? (PDF)
Evgeny Buzhinskiy
The former Russian arms control negotiator argues that if no progress is made on the list of issues confronting nonproliferation by 2015, then the fate and effectiveness of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty itself and the nonproliferation regime in general are in jeopardy.
Can Japan Remain Committed to Nonproliferation? (PDF)
Nobumasa Akiyama, Kenta Horio
Facing U.S. strategic insolvency in the nuclear nonproliferation regime, Tokyo may now be in a position to take a much greater role as a leader by example to revitalize and enforce contemporary nonproliferation.
The Elusive Vision of a Non-nuclear North Korea (PDF)
Christopher R. Hill
The former head of the U.S. negotiating team with North Korea argues that, as difficult as disarming the DPRK is, the United States should not give up on the effort. The key to any progress, whether through regime change or negotiation, runs through Beijing and Seoul.
Rebalancing to Asia with an Insecure China (PDF)
Ely Ratner
The U.S. shift toward Asia should and will continue, but Washington must both account for an insecure China for rebalancing to achieve its intended aims and must sustain its commitment to intensive high-level engagement with Beijing to cope with inevitable crises.
U.S. Strategy after the Arab Uprisings: Toward Progressive Engagement (PDF)
Colin H. Kahl, Marc Lynch
The time has come to articulate a more coherent, overarching, and positive agenda for the new Middle East, focusing on encouraging political reform and broad-based engagement with emerging actors while "right-sizing" America's military presence in the region.
R2P after Libya and Syria: Engaging Emerging Powers (PDF)
Ramesh Thakur
Libya proved to be a textbook illustration justifying the responsibility to protect (R2P) principles, but its implementation also demonstrated the need for legitimacy criteria. Engaging the emerging powers on these criteria is in the mutual interest of these powers and those who support R2P.
Iraq: a Decade of Lost Opportunities (PDF)
Mina Al-Oraibi
Historians will continue to debate the causes and impact of the 2003 Iraq war, but it is clear today that Iraq has witnessed a decade of lost opportunities. Even worse, Iraq could soon become a failed state unless there are structural changes to the way the country is ruled.
A Considered Postmortem on 2012 (PDF)
Charles E. Cook, Jr.
The 2012 results revealed greater changes in American political dynamics than many of us had appreciated. While many now know that Republicans are in trouble, we also now know that voters who describe themselves as moderates are just as important, if not more so, than those who call themselves independents.