CIAO DATE: 08/2012
Volume: 35, Issue: 3
Summer 2012
The Demise of Ares: The End of War as We Know It? (PDF)
Bruno Tertrais
There is no single causal factor at work, but all point in one direction: we are nearing a point of history where it will be possible to say that war as we know it, long thought to be an inevitable part of the human condition, has disappeared.
What if Europe Fails? (PDF)
Thomas Wright
What would the end of European integration really mean geopolitically? Thinking through and prioritizing the consequences yield five of the utmost importance, but whether they are modest or seismic would depend on the way failure happens.
The Mystery of Phantom States (PDF)
Daniel Byman, Charles King
The rise of phantom states suggests that formal sovereignty has lost some of its caché. What will happen to the foundations of international relations if you can get by just fine by living in a country that nobody believes really exists?
Israel's National Security Amidst Unrest in the Arab World (PDF)
Ephraim Inbar
Despite all the optimism, the Arab uprisings have emphasized the shifting regional balance of power toward Iran and Turkey, not Israel, and the decline of U.S. influence. Israel now faces greater regional isolation, terror, threats to the Eastern Mediterranean sea lanes and energy resources, and the prospects of a nuclear Iran.
China's Geostrategic Search for Oil (PDF)
John Lee
The real threat from Beijing's geostrategic energy security strategy is not the risk of conflict or even energy insecurity, where their leverage is actually limited, but the detrimental effect on Western efforts to improve global governance standards, human rights, economic reform, and order.
Recalibrating U.S.–Pakistan Relations (PDF)
Haider Ali Hussein Mullick
Pakistani counterinsurgency has actually improved markedly since 2009, but absent a push to normalize U.S.-Pakistani relations by narrowing the gap between what Washington seeks from Islamabad and what is feasible, these counterinsurgency gains will reverse.
Shifting Eastern Mediterranean Geometry (PDF)
Jon B. Alterman, Haim Malka
The security architecture which the United States helped establish in the Eastern Mediterranean is finally crumbling. Increasingly strained relations among—and changing politics in—Turkey, Israel, and Egypt will complicate the U.S. ability to achieve its strategic goals.
Turkey's Strategic Vision and Syria (PDF)
Ömer Taşpınar
Turkey's estranged relations with Bashar Assad and its Syria policy once again demonstrate that Ankara's foreign policy is not a battle between pro-Western and Islamic camps, but a delicate calibration among three historically-rooted conceptions of Turkish grand strategy.
Turkey's Role in Defusing the Iranian Nuclear Issue (PDF)
Aylin Gürzel
To achieve its desired regional influence, Ankara has sought to settle disputes in its neighborhood, particularly the Iranian nuclear issue. But Turkey resists sanctions and has also realized that active diplomacy is not enough, so what might Ankara do?
Turkey's Eroding Commitment to NATO: From Identity to Interests (PDF)
Tarık Oğuzlu
Turkish decision-makers find it difficult to believe that membership in NATO supports Turkey's Western European identity anymore, leading Ankara to build relations with NATO on more pragmatic common interests. How long those binding common interests endure, however, remains to be seen.