CIAO DATE: 02/2008
Volume: 6, Issue: 2
Summer 2007: Central Eurasia - New Faultlines With Global Implications
From the Desk of the Editor (PDF)
Diba Nigar Göksel
In this issue of TPQ we explore energy, security, conflict management, democratization, and state-building in the context of Central Eurasia. Drawing upon the framework and spirit of the ARI Movement's 9th International Security Conference, a particular effort has been made to provide a platform for voices from the region. As always, this contributes to a deeper understanding of the divergences of perception that shape the politics and cultural paradigms central to the region.
NATO's Role in Afghanistan (PDF)
Hikmet Çetin
As the Former NATO Senior Civilian Representative for Afghanistan, Hikmet Çetin clarifies NATO's role in Afghanistan. He describes the social and economic problems that are intertwined with the security challenges and highlights the ongoing collaboration with the Afghan government, neighboring countries and NATO Partners in this complex effort. Çetin shares his insights as to how misperceptions about NATO's mission can be overcome and concludes by underlining that NATO will remain on the ground until self sustaining local security structures are established.
The Muslim World and Darfur (PDF)
Amjad Atallah
Explaining why Russian authorities are fl exing their muscles towards the West and the policy options Russia faces in the energy sector, the author asserts that Turkey is increasingly central in securing Europe's energy supply. He points out that the EU needs a common energy policy that takes diversification into account and that Central Asia needs more options to carry its energy resources to world markets.
The Russian Federation as an Energy Supplier (PDF)
Suat Akgün
Explaining why Russian authorities are fl exing their muscles towards the West and the policy options Russia faces in the energy sector, the author asserts that Turkey is increasingly central in securing Europe's energy supply. He points out that the EU needs a common energy policy that takes diversification into account and that Central Asia needs more options to carry its energy resources to world markets.
Turkey's Energy Ambitions Clash With Russian Succession Politics (PDF)
Dr. Donald N. Jensen
The Caspian Basin is increasingly at the center of international energy competition. Turkey aspires to enhance its chances of joining the European Union and increase its credentials as a regional power by making itself into a critical energy hub for oil and gas fl owing from the former USSR to world markets. Russia, Europe's major energy supplier and in control of major transport networks, is raking in huge profits and using its dominance in the international energy sector to increase its clout in international politics. Moscow has carefully moved to limit Ankara's influence over the energy politics in the region. Russia's behavior in the Caspian, however, has as much to do with competition within the Kremlin for control over the country's major energy firms as it does with geopolitical calculations. This competition is likely to intensify as Russia's presidential transition approaches and make Russian firms increasingly unreliable energy partners.
Russia as a Black Sea Power (PDF)
Stephen Blank
The author highlights Russia's determination to exploit its advantages in the sphere of energy for increased global power and argues that the West needs to match this determination with clear support for countries like Ukraine and Georgia that are vulnerable. He points out that offering such countries clear prospects for membership in NATO and the EU would render Russia with no choice but to integrate with Europe. Without increased involvement of the EU in the Black Sea region, he warns, threats could grow to be intractable.
Ninth Nuclear Power: Iran's Ambitions in the Middle East and Beyond (PDF)
Amin Tarzi
Iran is feared because of the nature of the Islamic Republican system. This system does not limit itself to the geographic boundaries of Iran, but has a far grander vision. The fear is compounded when that vision has been substantiated with Iranian proxies in countries as far away as Argentina and as close as Iraq. The fear becomes more than just a transitory threat if or when Ahmadinejad's declaration that his country is the world's ninth nuclear state is realized. An Iran armed with a nuclear weapons capability would facilitate the accomplishment of Iran's regional ambitions.
Iran: Averting Nuclear Finlandization (PDF)
Joel Sprayregen
The author, based on discussions that took place at the ARI Movement's annual security conference in June 2007, expresses strong conviction that a nuclear-armed Iran posses great threat to world peace. He points out the parallels between Hitler's Germany and Ahmadinejad's Iran, emphasizing that the policy of appeasement toward Germany before World War II lingers today in the face of great risk for tomorrow.
Iran Foreign Policy Towards Iraq and Syria (PDF)
Dr. Kayhan Bargezar
This paper investigates the roots of Iranian foreign policy toward Iraq and Syria after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Because of its geo-strategic location, politicalcultural characteristics and energy sources, Iran is a pivotal state in shaping the international politics of the Middle East. Since the September 11th events, Iran has increasingly had impact on the issues such as regional crises in Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon as well as the war against global terrorism, which are currently the most signifi cant agenda items of international security. The author argues that Iran's foreign policy towards Iraq and Syria is primarily geopolitical, oriented at building a secure environment at its borders, for strategic-pragmatic purposes.
Turkey's Iraq Policy (PDF)
Oubai M. Shahbandar
The question, ultimately, weighing on the minds of many U.S. policy makers and strategists is whether a convergence can be found, if at all possible, between Turkish national interests, its government's Islamist tinge, and U.S. regional interests, particularly when it comes to that salient centerpiece dominating the geopolitical conversation of the region, if not the world: Iraq.
NATO in Central Asia: In search of Regional Harmony (PDF)
Katja Gersak
The events in Andijon in May 2005 precipitated a signifi cant deterioration of relations between Central Asian republics and the West, while at the same time enhancing Russian and Chinese positions in the region. Enhancing Western position in the region will require a more coordinated and systematic approach, as well as a transparent policy implementation process. NATO should serve as primary vehicle in building deeper ties with the region. Furthermore NATO should explore possibilities for multilateral engagement with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Turning NATO – SCO cooperation into a functioning multilateral mechanism would greatly enhance regional ability to address short-term and long-term security threats as well as build a level of trust between participating members resulting in real, enduring security gains.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Prospects of Development in the Eurasia Region (PDF)
Prajakti Kalra, Siddharth S. Saxena
The authors outline the recent evolution and current framework of the SCO, stating that it is not an antagonistic security alliance as some in the West perceive it to be. Instead, they argue, it should be seen as a vehicle for increasing economic and social prosperity in the region. It is pointed out that the rhetoric of human rights preached by Europe and the U.S. backfires in the region, heightening a sense of threat. That the SCO can play a central role in stabilizing Afghanistan is emphasized.
The 2007 Parliamentary Elections in Kazakhstan: Results and Prospects (PDF)
Marian Abisheva, Timur Shaimergenov
This article focuses on the political reform ongoing in Kazakhstan and the elections which took place in August 2007. The authors argue that democratization and positive change is underway and the failure of the opposition parties in the recent elections was largely a result of their lack of progressive ideas and emphasis on merely attacking authorities. The authors conclude that, unlike many observers from abroad think, Kazakhstan will benefit most from the stability that the current single party government offers and, based on the maturation of the opposition parties, will develop a more solid multi-party governance in due time.
Uzbekistan: Lessons from the Field (PDF)
Mjusa Sever, Fazil Khasanov
The post – communist transition of Central Asia has been different from Eastern Europe. Two decades after the main swing to democracy has substantially changed the heart of Europe, Central Asian countries still seem somewhat frightened and hesitant to join the train of progress and democratization. What are the main internal and external reasons for this difference? Authors representing one of the two remaining U.S. - funded non governmental organizations engaged in democracy building on the ground in Uzbekistan try to reflect the local perceptions both as outsiders and insiders in the ongoing transition process in Uzbekistan, the most populous Central Asian country.