CIAO DATE: 02/2008
Volume: 49, Issue: 2
Summer 2007
Risks and Opportunities in Somalia
Jonathan Stevenson
There is no satisfactory coercive solution to the quandary of stabilising Somalia. If it is viewed simply as a counter-terrorism challenge, the threats it poses, regionally and globally, probably aren't going to go away – as they have not gone away for the past five years – and in fact could produce wider instability and energise the global jihad. Diplomacy, though perennially frustrating when it comes to Somalia, appears obligatory. In fact, the situation in Somalia is best viewed as a political opportunity for the United States and European powers to employ conflict resolution to tame Somali Islamists through political co-optation, to disaggregate the global radical Islamic movement and shrink the area of active jihad, and to make headway in the long-term quest to forge a better relationship with Islam and deprive Osama bin Laden and his followers of a new grievance.
Preserving Hope in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Christopher S. Chivvis
In the late 1990s the Democratic Republic of the Congo collapsed into one of the most devastating wars in modern history. In 2006 it held successful elections, and appears, albeit haltingly, on the road to long-term stability. The progress achieved owes a good deal to the cooperative nation-building efforts of the United Nations and the European Union. The EU has given the UN's long-standing mission critical military support and engaged deeply in economic, humanitarian and democratisation projects. This military strategy of 'punctuated' intervention has allowed EU governments to avoid a costly long-term commitment of troops while capitalising on the marginal value of Europe's highly capable forces when necessary. Buy this article online
Organising for Nation Building
Nora Bensahel
Recent years have seen numerous initiatives to build organisational capacity for nation-building operations in both national governments and international organisations. These initiatives have made some progress, but they share a number of common problems, including bureaucratic turf wars, interagency and intergovernmental coordination challenges, limited financial resources, and shortages of qualified personnel. If left unchecked, these problems may prevent these initiatives from addressing the capacity challenges they were designed to solve.
Enriched Islam: The Muslim Crisis of Education
Mamoun Fandy
There is a Muslim migration of ideas that have travelled east from Egypt to Saudi Arabia to Pakistan, becoming progressively more extreme. Diminishing the extremism of contemporary Islamic discourse requires attention to the basic 'software' of education. It was not religion in schoolbooks that created the present situation, but rather a lack of free debate and serious effort to create modern educational systems founded on ideals of intellectual excellence, administrative accountability and critical thinking. Any attempt at reform should take as its starting point the three hegemonic models – Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan – that shape education in the Muslim world today.
Prospects for Middle East Security-Sector Reform
Ellen Laipson
In the security-poor countries of the Middle East – Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq – the international community is already engaged in building and strengthening the capacity of security services through means ranging from aid and training to peace operations and military occupation. Most of the region, however, suffers from the opposite problem: states with relatively short histories as independent entities have consolidated their hold on territory and citizens by developing strong security institutions that have proven loyal to incumbent regimes and thwarted prospects for social, economic and political change. In the age of terrorism, it may appear contradictory to promote more effective security services while also advocating greater individual freedom. But security-sector reform is a necessary part of the larger reform agenda and, over time, can contribute to greater regional stability and the enhanced legitimacy of governments.
A Nuclear Iran: The Reactions of Neighbours
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Frederic M. Wehrey
Regional reactions to a nuclear-armed Iran will vary, ranging from accommodation and détente to outright hostility and efforts to acquire a countervailing deterrent. Many states do not perceive a nuclear-armed Iran itself to be the principal threat, but are more concerned with secondary or spillover effects, such as a pre-emptive strike by the United States or Israel, a regional arms race, a nuclear accident or an emboldened Iran that increases its support for terrorism. Given these various threat perceptions, the West should construct a new cooperative security structure that strikes a balance between providing deterrence for allies and creating openings for positive engagement with Iran.
The US and Turkey: End of an Alliance?
Rajan Menon, S. Enders Wimbush
The alliance between the United States and Turkey, which has endured since the promulgation of the Truman Doctrine in 197, is in serious trouble. Some of Turkey's foreign-policy options involve reducing its reliance on the United States, or even turning away from Washington and deepening ties with America's competitors. Accompanying Turkish discussions about a new strategic orientation has been the growth of a deep anti-Western, and specifically anti-American, mood – one that now shapes the thinking of Turks, regardless of political persuasion. Talk of strategic recalculation might simply be empty rhetoric from a Turkey that is angry and wants Washington to notice, but the wisest course would be to take steps to ensure the continued vitality of an alliance that both Ankara and Washington need to deal effectively with unfamiliar dangers. America's preoccupation with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Turkey's anger over American policies should not obscure this larger picture.
America and the United Nations: An Exchange
Mark P. Lagon, David Shorr
Japan's New Security Agenda
Christopher W. Hughes, Ellis S. Krauss
Koizumi Junichiro, Japan's prime minister from 2001 to 2006, broke the mould of post-war Japanese foreign policy. His successor Abe Shinzo looks set to build upon this legacy: after the 'depression diplomacy' of the 1990s, Japan has returned as a diplomatic and military as well as economic power. The United States has welcomed and encouraged this development, but it may get more than it bargained for. Japan is certainly re-emerging as a more confident partner, but it could also become more erratic, demanding and unpredictable.
Review Essay: The Counterweight
Spencer Ackerman
Review Essay: Who Was Responsible?
Lanxin Xiang