CIAO DATE: 02/2008
Volume: 6, Issue: 6
December 2007
Half Full or Half Empty? An Assessment of the Crocker Report on Iraqi Economic Conditions (PDF)
Robert Looney
Ambassador Crocker's report to Congress on the progress made by the Iraqi economy is cautiously optimistic—clearly some progress is finally taking place. The encouraging news is that in some areas improved security is "stimulating revival of markets, with the active participation of local communities. War damage is being cleared and buildings repaired, roads and sewers built and commerce energized."[1] According to the Ambassador: The IMF estimates that economic growth will exceed 6 percent for 2007. Iraqi ministries and provincial councils have made substantial progress this year in utilizing Iraq's oil revenue for investment. The 2007 governmental budget allocated $10 billion (nearly one-third Iraq's expected oil export revenue) to capital investment. Over $3 billion was allocated to the provinces and the Kurdish Region for spending. The latest data show that spending units (national ministries and provincial councils) have proceeded to commit these funds at more than twice the rate of last year. Doing the best are the provincial authorities, in the process gaining experience with making plans and decisions, and running fair tenders. In so doing, they are stimulating local business development and providing employment. Over time we expect the experience with more responsive local authorities will change Iraqi attitudes towards their elected leaders, and of the provinces towards Baghdad.[2]
A Plan for Post-Surge Iraq (PDF)
Abbas Kadhim
Almost five years have passed since the defeat of Saddam Hussein's government and Iraqis are still waiting for the better life promised by President George W. Bush in his speech hours before the invasion. Two days before the commencement of the military operations in Iraq, President George W. Bush addressed the Iraqi people with the following message: "Many Iraqis can hear me tonight in a translated radio broadcast, and I have a message for them. If we must begin a military campaign, it will be directed against the lawless men who rule your country and not against you. As our coalition takes away their power, we will deliver the food and medicine you need. We will tear down the apparatus of terror and we will help you to build a new Iraq that is prosperous and free. In a free Iraq, there will be no more wars of aggression against your neighbors, no more poison factories, no more executions of dissidents, no more torture chambers and rape rooms. The tyrant will soon be gone. The day of your liberation is near."[1]
Rebuilding a Non-Sectarianism in Iraq (PDF)
Eric Davis
The U.S. invasion of Iraq sought to remake the country in the neoconservative vision that dominated Bush Administration policy in 2003. That vision called for a classic "night watchman" state that would refrain from offering social services and running economic enterprises. Markets would be the primary instrument of economic reconstruction and laissez-faire economics would reign supreme. Not only did Bush Administration policy differ sharply from traditional Iraqi understandings of the social role of government, but applying "shock therapy" to a society whose economy, health care infrastructure and national educational system had been devastated by twelve years of harsh United Nations sanctions, and participation in two of the most destructive wars of the 20th century, the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88, and the Gulf War of 1991, was unrealistic and largely destructive. Frustrated at almost every turn, Bush Administration policy has involved a systematic retreat from the original goal of remaking Iraqi society. Recent improvements in the security situation notwithstanding, Iraq still faces serious problems. In light of the failures of Bush Administration policy, what are the prospects for building a politically stable, prosperous and ultimately pluralistic Iraq?
'Shadows of the Images': The Allegory of Iraq (PDF)
John Tirman
The Bush Administration's perceptions of the Iraq War bring to mind Plato's Allegory of the Cave in The Republic. Nothing illustrates this more than the shadows and echoes brought before Congress in September by General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker. Their shadow play, whether intentional or not, fails to convey a picture of Iraq that can move us toward stability and (relative) peace.
What was missing from the performance, and indeed from nearly all reflections about Iraq, are two key variables: the scale and effect of the violence that continues to ravage the country, and the role of the neighbors in promoting or stemming violence and instability.
Economic Development During Conflict: The Petraeus-Crocker Congressional Testimonies (PDF)
Frank R. Gunter
In contrast to the December 2006 report of the Iraq Study Group (ISG)[1], economic developments in Iraq received significantly more attention in the September 2007 congressional testimony of Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker and, to a lesser extent, in that of General David H. Petraeus. This greater attention to the essential services and economic development logical lines of operation (LLO) is a result of several occurrences.[2]
The Return to Attrition: Warfare in the Late Nation-State Era (PDF)
Peter Munson
Security analysts have struggled over the preceding years to come to terms with the challenges of the current era. They have offered a range of visions on the shape of future warfare, some focusing on the roots of conflicts and others on the types of warfare that will be waged. U.S. defense officials, seeing a chaotic and unpredictable world, went so far as to move away from threat-based planning toward a "capabilities-based" approach,[2] focusing on the proverbial hammers, rather than the specific types of nails. None of these approaches has taken a step back to search for fundamental changes in the broader socio-political nature of our current era, to estimate how these changes will affect both coming conflicts and our ability to respond to those conflicts, and to build strategies pragmatically tailored to the nature and limitations of the age.
China... from the Sea: The Importance of Chinese Naval History (PDF)
Benjamin Armstrong
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, China has become a source of increased focus for military strategists and policy-makers throughout the West and most especially in the United States. With the largest army in the world and obvious aspirations to, at the very least, regional power they mark one of the most significant potential threats to American military supremacy. Studies of China's martial past have been included in the professional reading of many officers in the United States Armed forces. However, there is still one common misperception with regard to China's military history. China, despite what many have written, has an important naval heritage. This heritage may not have been central to the study of Chinese history in the past; however it is important for study in the future. The Chinese government itself has included examples from this history as inspiration for their modern policy and strategy. With this fact in mind it is of vital importance that historians and strategists understand China's naval past.
Regional Threats and Security Strategy: The Troubling Case of Today's Middle East (PDF)
James Russell
Nearly 5 years after the United States invaded Iraq, the tremors from this cataclysmic event are still reverberating in the region and around the world. A new generation of jihadist extremists is gaining experience on the battlefields of Iraq, and what passes for political authority seems increasingly wielded by nonstate groups via the point of a gun. All the surrounding states view developments in Iraq with varying levels of disquiet. Many commentators believe that the invasion has become the most important regional event framing political and military affairs since the 1967 Six-Day War. The war has dramatically altered internal political dynamics throughout the region, placing the regimes and their historically close relations with the United States under new pressures. All these forces are converging to frame a new strategic challenge to the United States and the international community, which has vital economic and political interests in ensuring regional stability and security. The World Economic Forum, for example, recently identified geopolitical instability in the Middle East as a separate and distinct threat to global stability.
Neither Submission, Nor War: Conceiving the EU's Policy Response to the Iranian Challenge (PDF)
Sergey Smolnikov
The Iranian issue looms large in the EU's foreign policy priorities not only because of its strategic significance, but above all because the way it is being tackled by the EU is indicative of an important international phenomenon. By the latter we mean the Union's ability to act as an agent of modernity in world politics. Is it possible to resolve the Iran problem without submission or war? This article argues that in Iran the EU is about to work out a new style of assertive multilateral commercial power diplomacy that will make use of its leverage as of the world's dominant trading and economic power to avert the worst-case military scenario. This policy per se, however, is not sufficient to ensure an effective and peaceful settlement of the Iranian issue unless the Europeans manage to cut a diplomatic deal with China and engage the United States in direct talks with Tehran.
Sabri Zire Al-Saadi
Four and a half years after the fall of the late Saddam's dictatorial regime, attempts were made to assess and draw conclusions about the relevancy of the applied policies for liberalizing the political and economic systems and for the creating of flourishing democratic practices in Iraq. These were mainly based on dominant U.S. political and economic thinking, as well as on the post-war insecurity, and catastrophic political, social, and economic events. In particular, the economic strategy and policies advocated by the United States for rebuilding the economy on a free market basis had mainly the same basis of the following economic reviews, analysis, and assessments.[1] However, since the implemented policies were based on little understanding of Iraq's economic conditions, potential for growth, and structural problems, they failed to improve the deteriorating economic situation in spite of spending abundant available financial resources.
Determining Communication Shortfalls for Homeland Defense (PDF)
MAJ Kevin P. Wilson
Communications is a critical enabling capability that is interwoven into every facet of every military operation. Assessing what communication capability is most valuable to the operation is a vital planning requirement that currently resides in several processes that produce differing outcomes within the DoD. This article examines these planning processes, particularly the capability-based approach, assessing which process is optimal for determining communication shortfalls.
An in-depth comparison of the Joint Capabilities Integrated Defense System (JCIDS) and USNORTHCOM's Capability Review and Resource Assessment (CRRA) was conducted, examining the respective strengths and weakness of each process. This article then recommends an optimized hybrid solution of the CRRA and JCIDS, thus providing an intuitive methodology that can be used to model what communication capabilities are essential to the DoD and its interagency partners.
Ultimately, this model may serve to guide the defense planning process to ensure meaningful collaboration occurs, when crafting a unified DoD and interagency position regarding communications and network-centric capability needs and shortfalls. Particular utility can be applied to fill the gap of interoperable communications solutions between first responders, the military, interagency, and coalition partners, when teaming in a homeland defense scenario.