CIAO DATE: 08/2009
Volume: 19, Issue: 0
Spring 2008
Letter from the Editor (PDF)
Peace in its Wake? The 2004 Tsunami and Internal Conflict in Indonesia and Sri Lanka (PDF)
Jason S. Enia
Almost every recent natural disaster that has occurred within a zone of conflict has been followed by expressions of hope from both diplomats and journalists that the disaster might somehow lead to peace. In order to assess whether the concept of “disaster diplomacy” has any merit, more systematic comparative research is needed, contrasting cases where disaster diplomacy seems to have been present with cases where it has not. As a step in this direction, this article explores the differing outcomes with respect to the separatist conflicts in Indonesia and Sri Lanka that followed the 2004 tsunami. In each of these cases, the tsunami provided an opportunity for separatist groups to supply critical public and private relief goods and thereby send a powerful signal about the functional legitimacy of their respective claims to autonomy. In this way, the tsunami affected the separatists’ relative bargaining strength, creating an atmosphere more inclined toward peace in Indonesia and renewed civil war in Sri Lanka. The differing narratives suggest that the world pay more attention to post-disaster conflict zones given their positive and negative dynamic potential. Introduction
Jeanne Hull
Non-state armed groups present a direct threat to U.S. national security at home and abroad. Their decentralized structures, informal and formal logistics networks, and ability to merge with and hide among the world’s civilian populations make them extremely difficult targets for threatened states and their intelligence and security organizations to address. Joint interagency and international intelligence and security efforts are arguably necessary to respond to such threats; however, despite the obvious advantages of intelligence collaboration at all levels of a conflict, obstacles to inter-agency and international cooperation remain. These obstacles arise from lack of capability, a lack of will, or a combination thereof. This paper discusses three lack-of-will challenges related to collective action and two capability problems using as case studies tactical-operational joint-agency task forces in Bosnia and Northern Iraq Based on lessons learned from these cases, I recommend that Joint- Inter-Agency Task Forces (JIATFs) become integrated into U.S. joint doctrine, that lead agencies or personnel for these organizations be established at their inception, that JIATFs at the strategic level focus more on the importance of networking and cooperation than operations, and the incentive mechanisms for participants be restructured to promote teamwork over individual accomplishment. These recommendations address a variety of problems with inter-agency collaboration; other problems—personalities paramount among them—require a more long-term approach.
Lessons from the Soviet Occupation in Afghanistan for the United States and NATO (PDF)
Jonathan Gandomi
Already in its seventh year in Afghanistan, U.S. and NATO forces appear as if they will approach and likely surpass the decade-long occupation by Soviet troops. Currently, Afghanistan is far from becoming stable and even reaching the normalcy of developing-nation status. As the Spring 2008 NATO summit illustrated, it represents an important test of commitment for the trans-Atlantic alliance. This article will examine some of the military and political lessons from the Soviet experience and identify those that can be applied to the present period. Drawing on a number of transcripts from Politburo sessions and other significant Soviet documents from the 1979-1989 period, this article argues that despite the distinctions between 1988 and 2008 a number of common experiences and mistakes emerge. As the Taliban continues to fight an insurgency campaign and patience wears thin among Afghans for President Karzai’s government and the international community to deliver results, these lessons might be useful in informing U.S. and NATO policy. Ultimately, Afghans, especially in rural areas, must be offered tangible gains from siding with the current government, and a political solution must accompany military efforts to overcome the challenges that confront Afghanistan and its allies.
What is in it for the Poor? Evidence from Fiscal Decentralization in Vietnam (PDF)
Hoang-Phuong Nguyen
Like other developing countries, Vietnam has attempted to push for greater fiscal decentralization in the hope of a more efficient delivery of social services to targeted citizens. The fiscal decentralization initiative is encouraging and merits pursuit, but the present study however, shows that a misstep in the decentralization process can discriminate disproportionately against the poor. Specifically, an increase in the sub-provincial share of the total provincial expenditures is predicted to bring about an appreciable decrease in the lowest-quintile average monthly income. We suggest that the Vietnamese government require provinces to adopt pro-poor allocation norms rather than reclaiming its control over the provincial expenditure assignment. This paper’s empirical findings sound a note of considerable caution that other developing countries should exercise in their fiscal decentralization efforts to avoid creating unintended consequences for the poor. Introduction
Targeting Cultural Property: The Role of International Law (PDF)
Ashlyn Milligan
Oftentimes the exigencies of war necessarily take primacy over the preservation of cultural property, but emerging norms and sentiments within the international community have signaled an increased desire on the part of states to preserve, for posterity, the cultural heritage of mankind. Thus, the critical question becomes: how do states balance these seemingly irreconcilable ends, and to what extent is the current state of the international legal regime able to facilitate an adequate response to the protection of cultural property during an armed conflict? This paper will examine current examples drawn from conflicts in Iraq, the Balkans, and Afghanistan in order to expound these questions and discuss in greater detail some of the factors that underpin the decisions made by states when they either deliberately target or are required out of military necessity, to use cultural property in armed conflict. This article will assess the ability of international law to address and mitigate the deleterious effect of these motivations before making several recommendations for international policy.
Twin Deficits and The Fate of The US Dollar: A Hard Landing Reexamined (PDF)
Ashlyn Milligan
Oftentimes the exigencies of war necessarily take primacy over the preservation of cultural property, but emerging norms and sentiments within the international community have signaled an increased desire on the part of states to preserve, for posterity, the cultural heritage of mankind. Thus, the critical question becomes: how do states balance these seemingly irreconcilable ends, and to what extent is the current state of the international legal regime able to facilitate an adequate response to the protection of cultural property during an armed conflict? This paper will examine current examples drawn from conflicts in Iraq, the Balkans, and Afghanistan in order to expound these questions and discuss in greater detail some of the factors that underpin the decisions made by states when they either deliberately target or are required out of military necessity, to use cultural property in armed conflict. This article will assess the ability of international law to address and mitigate the deleterious effect of these motivations before making several recommendations for international policy.
Understanding the South African Nuclear Experience and its Applicability to Iran (PDF)
Brian Kaper
The nuclear non-proliferation regime is not as strong as it once was. The international community has had trouble reaching consensus on extending the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). North Korea has succeeded in building a nuclear weapon despite being party to the NPT, and now Iran appears to be on the verge of becoming the second NPT violator of the new millennium. But there is hope for nuclear rollback. The suspected Iranian program is reminiscent of South Africa’s previous nuclear weapons program; a program which was disbanded nearly twenty years ago. By looking at the South African experience, the international community could formulate a comprehensive approach to ensure the Middle East does not become the next nuclear hotbed.
Joshua Goldstein
In East Africa, development practitioners, economists, and local entrepreneurs believe the Internet can be a catalyst for economic growth and human development. However, these three communities lack a common agenda to make increased access a reality. This article attempts to find common language among these communities, and suggests they support a policy framework called Open Access, which aims to provide Internet access to the most people at the lowest cost through marketbased solutions and limited public financing.
Water in Central Asia: A Prospect of Conflict or Cooperation? (PDF)
Beatrice Mosello
Water is the central resource involved in one of the world’s greatest human-induced ecological disasters: the desiccation of the Aral Sea in Central Asia. Increasing demand and declining supplies of water have been compounded by rising nationalism and competition among the five Central Asian states, which, in turn, has hampered the possibility of finding a viable regional approach to replace the Soviet system of water management. This paper analyses the root causes of this issue and argues that tensions over water have “spilled-over” in Central Asia, creating an uneasy political climate that has slowed down cooperation. In particular, Central Asian states have tended to securitize water-related issues, motivated by national concerns over economic development, the need to control ethnic tensions and social uprisings, as well as the desire to manage environmental degradation and population growth. This work also explores the reasons why regional institutions and agreements, typically proposed as useful instruments for inducing cooperation, have not been successful in the Central Asian case. In conclusion, some recommendations for improving water management policy in the region are suggested, including the possibility of using the legacy of the Aral Sea problem to reverse classical upstream/ downstream dynamics.
Space Weaponization and Canada-U.S. Relations: Lessons from Australia (PDF)
Steve Buchta
At a time when new forms of security threats via outer space place further pressure on states to characterize key security values, a government’s best option is to design a relevant and innovative space defense policy. In particular, the geographic location, finances and diplomatic support of middle powers afford them a decisive role in the international realm of space and security policy. To shed light on future space and weaponization policy options this article applies a comparative analytical framework to Canadian and Australian military space relations with the United States. An in-depth examination of these states’ past, present and future approaches to space weaponization reveals that rapid adoption of new organizational and managerial practices for Canada and the U.S. would improve the chances of long-term middle power-major power cooperation on space weaponization.
Improving Educational Quality in Honduras: Building a Demand-Driven Education Market (PDF)
Fernando Yitzack Pavon
On average, Honduras spends much more on public education than other Latin American countries. However, Honduras’ increased spending on education has not resulted in superior educational outcomes. The Honduran education system faces problems of general service provision, including low teacher accountability and poor performance. This paper briefly outlines how the education sector can build upon the foundation laid by PROHECO, a community-based education program financed by the World Bank (WB) and other countries’ experiences to foster a more productive educational system driven by demand. By tackling the aforementioned quality-hindering issues through the decentralization of the education system, implementing a community performance management mechanism (performance-based bonuses) and introducing vouchers for lower income students, the Honduran education sector would create a new competitive market-oriented environment for the provision of education leading to increased quality in the delivery of education.