CIAO DATE: 02/2008
Volume: 18, Issue: 0
Spring 2007
Understanding the Iranian Nuclear Equation (PDF)
Dr. Jason J. Blackstock, P.Phys., Manjana Milkoreit, J.D.
Since mid-2005, the Iranian regime has embarked on a course of aggressive and public brinksmanship regarding its domestic nuclear program. This article explores this new Iranian behavior by first elucidating the range of strategic variables comprising the Iranian nuclear equation and then evaluating how recent evolutions in the international and domestic environments have altered the influence of the equation's different variables. The analysis demonstrates that Iran's recent brinksmanship gambit was driven largely by the regime's desire to use the nuclear issue to garner domestic public support, and was enabled by the growing perceived inability of the international community to enact effective coercive measures against Iran. The article culminates with a recommendation that U.S. and EU policymakers seriously evaluate the hitherto dismissed alternative of accepting nuclear fuel cycle facilities on Iranian soil under the control of a multinational or international consortium. Emphasis is placed on the importance of considering such alternatives before Iran achieves nuclear technological independence.
Is the Price Right? A Study of the Impact of School Fees in Rural Bangladesh (PDF)
Emily Grenzke
The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect that user fees have on primary school enrollment and educational attainment in rural Bangladesh. There is growing international consensus that school user fees should be abolished in developing countries because they pose a barrier to universal enrollment. However, where school fees are the primary source of revenue for education, abolishing them significantly threatens the quality of education provided. Using data from three different regions in Bangladesh in 1996, this article employs a Heckman model to estimate the determinants of school enrollment. The results suggest that (i) fixed enrollment fees are a barrier to participation in the education market, (ii) but annual fees are not, and (iii) that the cost of secondary education has a significant impact on primary school enrollment. Based on these results, and considering the need for revenue, current policies aimed at abolishing all varieties of school fees are not justified. The article concludes by recommending advocacy for lower fixed enrollment fees and lower fees for secondary schools. 1
Back to the Future: Understanding China's Return to Africa and its Implications for U.S. Policy (PDF)
Greg Pollock
Since the mid-1970s, China (PRC) has experienced a period of unprecedented economic growth. However, the Chinese Communist Party's hold on power is now predicated upon maintaining their country's development trajectory, which requires increasing amounts of natural resources, particularly fossil fuels. To secure access to these raw materials, China has begun to deepen its engagement in parts of the world where Washington has enjoyed a near monopoly on influence since the end of the Cold War. Nowhere is this truer than in Africa, where China has pursued an array of new relationships, some of which directly challenge U.S. interests. This article reviews China's historical relationship with Africa, accounts for its new investments on the continent, and assesses what the implications of China's renewed interest in Africa are for U.S. policy.
Improving Agricultural Efficiency Amongst Groundwater Users: The Case of Sugarcane in North India (PDF)
Gauri Khanna
This paper estimates inequities in production and income for different categories of water users in the context of a rapidly depleting resource by estimating technical inefficiency using frontier techniques. The research is based on primary survey data from a North Indian village that shares characteristics commonly observed in other groundwater-dependant agricultural areas. Estimated technical efficiency scores are highest on plots where water is sourced from a privately owned tubewell, followed by plots serviced by partnered tubewells and lowest on plots where water is bought. Income gains from improved efficiency follow the reverse patterns with the largest gains of Rupees (Rs) 1082 per bigha1 estimated for buyers' plots and Rs. 649 per bigha for plots with their own tubewell with the average of Rs. 867 for all plots. A policy package of improved power, joint ownership of tubewells, farmer training and better water transportation systems are prescribed as policy measures to alleviate the differences amongst water users.
Neither Pigs nor Parrots: A Military Culture that Can Win the Peace (PDF)
Ryan Close
As ongoing operations in Iraq illustrate, the nature of warfare is changing: peacekeeping and warfighting are converging as the space between military and humanitarian activity erodes. Because of the vastly different challenges of fighting wars and handling post-conflict challenges, militaries traditionally train soldiers to be either warriors or peacekeepers. This new type of conflict, however, requires soldiers who are both of these simultaneously. Unfortunately, current organizational culture – focused almost entirely on combat – may prevent the ideological shift within the military that is necessary for molding a new soldier identity. This article addresses this challenge and proposes policy measures that would help transform military culture and better match combat prowess with broad intellectual, political, and social vision. To this end, this article considers how the security environment is evolving, examines how such an environment will severely stress the U.S. military, and offers recommendations for cultural change that concern force structure, operational planning, and the selection, training, and promotion of soldiers.
The African Union in Darfur: An African Solution, but Still a Global Problem (PDF)
Adam Keith
Since 2003, Sudan's central government has used proxy forces to slaughter thousands of civilians belonging to ethnic groups associated with the uprising taking place in the Darfur region. Serious outside pressure would likely be required to change the regime's "preferences for repression," as Sudan's central government has concluded that, if unchecked, the uprising would threaten the regime's survival. The African Union (AU) has been admirably engaged in the Darfur crisis but has ultimately proven ineffectual, hindered by poor resources and weak political will. At the same time, the Sudanese government's intransigence and the diplomatic protection it has received from China have blunted the more ambitious steps taken by the United Nations Security Council. Ending the human rights violations that have plagued Darfur will require greater pressure from China on its partners in Khartoum, and this article concludes that advocacy from activist groups and the African Union itself could produce such an outcome.
Justice Delayed is Justice Denied: An Overview of the Options to Speed up Federal Justice (PDF)
Mattia Landoni
This paper examines the current situation of delay in the federal district courts and proposes ways to reduce it. District Courts are increasingly overwhelmed by the demand for judicial services. This trend is likely to continue in the absence of future action because none of the underlying causes will cease to exist. This article presents a detailed quantitative analysis of the main determinants of judicial services demand, followed by an overview of the options to increase its supply: changing the method to assess the need for judges is worth considering; modifying the procedure—the strategy adopted so far—seems to offer little marginal benefit; and finally, introduction of good management practices and digital information management seems to be an innovative and promising approach. 1
The Limits of Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership in Central Asia (PDF)
Brian Carlson
U.S. foreign policy has recently suffered setbacks in Central Asia, where its role had expanded dramatically following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Recent events appear to indicate growing Sino-Russian cooperation to limit U.S. influence in the region. Although Russia and China have grown closer together in recent years based on convergent strategic views, a number of factors will limit their strategic partnership at the global level. Likewise, their interests in Central Asia mix elements of cooperation with competition, reducing the likelihood of a Sino-Russian condominium in the region. Prudent U.S. foreign policy can prevent anti-American, Sino-Russian power balancing in Central Asia. In order to achieve its goal of a stable, independent Central Asia, the United States should seek to promote a regional concert with Russia, China, and the Central Asian states. If this is not fully achievable, the United States should promote maximum cooperation to address shared interests on issues of security and economic development.
The Financial Sector and Economic Development: Banking on the Role of Human Capital (PDF)
Manuela W. Armenta
Evidence suggests that human capital development contributes to the stability of banks. Unfortunately, developing countries, both pre- and post-liberalization, often suffer from an inadequate supply of capable professionals. This situation threatens the potentially positive relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth. It is therefore urgent that developing states develop policies aimed at addressing the supply and demand- side requirements of the financial sector. Such policies must target the development of professionals with both appropriate academic backgrounds in business and the requisite on-the-job skills. Public-private solutions are advocated as the most efficient and effective approach to the development of comprehensive policies in this regard.
He Who Would Rule: Climate Change in the Arctic and its Implications for U.S. National Security (PDF)
Elizabeth L. Chalecki
Anthropogenic climate change will have its greatest effect on the Arctic, which will experience impacts ranging from increasing ambient air temperature to glacier and sea ice melting to permafrost thaw. This altered environment will result in new national security concerns for circumpolar nations such as the United States, including increased Arctic access by Russia and other nations; competition over newly accessible fossil fuel resources; and loss of Arctic military facilities resulting from permafrost thaw and land subsidence. Although these effects will be felt cumulatively over the coming decades, the United States must make the necessary strategic changes now in order to prevail in this new security environment. The United States should retrain and re-equip military forces for greater Arctic operability, work toward a clear legal understanding of open sea access in newly ice-free waters, and consider implementing a joint circumpolar security apparatus to facilitate adaptation to this new globally-warmed Arctic.
The Regulation of South- South RTAs: An Analysis of AFTA and COMESA (PDF)
Steven Buchta
The recent rise in regional and bilateral preferential trade agreements (PTAs) highlights the need for further analysis of the "spaghetti bowl" of agreements and regulations that integrate global markets. This article gives specific attention to the regulation of South-South regional trade agreements (RTAs) and these agreements' capacity to generate new flows of intraregional trade. The author uses an interdisciplinary approach to examine both the legal frameworks and economic impacts of different South-South RTAs. Case studies of AFTA and COMESA offer insight into the inadequacies of the multilateral trading system's current regulations, which promote trade in blocs of industrializing member-states. The article concludes with various recommendations to improve South-South RTAs' ability to foster intra-regional trade and encourage liberal trade practices between emerging market economies.