Columbia International Affairs Online: Journals

CIAO DATE: 12/2011

From the Publisher

The Journal of International Security Affairs

A publication of:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs

Volume: 0, Issue: 21 (September 2011)


Tom Neumann

Abstract

Full Text

Spring is a time of rebirth and rejuvenation. It is also a time of hope. But whoever termed the recent events in the Middle East the Arab Spring was a genius of either spin or sarcasm. The so-called Arab Spring was a response to the hopelessness engendered by pervasive, long-standing economic and social malaise—discontent caused in large part by sclerotic, corrupt political systems that have dominated the Middle East for the better part of the past century. To some of us, it was immediately obvious that what was unfolding was no enlightenment or renaissance. The new Arab governments that have taken power in the Middle East and North Africa—or those that soon will—have little ability to resolve the issues that catalyzed the protests that brought them to power in the first place. They have articulated no serious plan of either economic or social reform, because they have none. And as a result, they are bound to merely substitute one form of authoritarian government for another. So the endemic problems of the region will continue to fester. Indeed, they could get much worse. When all seems hopeless, people begin looking to rewards in the next world. Among those who preach such promises are the most radical elements of the Islamic world. The chaos unleashed by the Arab Spring is a perfect terrorist recruiting environment. These societies are ripe for picking by the Muslim Brotherhood and its ilk. Revolution without reform, or even a pretense of it, is not a prescription for an “Arab Spring.” It is a surefire recipe for an Islamist winter.