Columbia International Affairs Online: Journals

CIAO DATE: 05/2014

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Rewriting the Middle East Map

Insight Turkey †

A publication of:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research

Volume: 16, Issue: 1 (Winter 2014)


James M. Dorsey

Abstract

Surveying today’s Middle Eastern and North African landscape offers few straws of hope. Iran’s reemergence producing a potential catalyst for a focus on core domestic political, economic and social issues could be one of those few straws. Whether Iran wittingly or unwittingly plays that role, the Middle East and North Africa are only likely to break their internecine cycle of violence and despair when the alternative becomes too costly. A resolution of the nuclear issue offers Iran far more than the ultimate lifting of crippling international sanctions. It would also allow Iran to capitalize on geostrategic gains it has made despite its international isolation. What worries opponents of the nuclear deal like Israel and Saudi Arabia most is the potential transformation of Iran from a game spoiler into a constructive player.

Full Text

A preliminary agreement between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Britain, China, France and Russia – plus Germany (P5+1), is set to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program and ultimately reintegrate it into the international community. In doing so, it would not only remove the threat of a debilitating war with Iran and prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), but also return the Islamic republic to the center stage of the region’s geo-politics. It would force regional powers such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as Iran, to focus on their most immediate issues, rather than use the Iranian threat as a distraction, while offering the US the opportunity to revert to its stated policy of pivoting from Europe and the Middle East to Asia. To be sure, a resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue is not a panacea for the vast array of social, political, economic, ethnic, national and sectarian problems in the MENA. Political and social unrest, boiling popular discontent with discredited regimes and identity politics are likely to dominate developments in the region for years to come. Nonetheless, Iran’s return to the international community is likely to provide the incentive for it to constructively contribute to ending the bitter civil war in Syria, breaking the stalemate in fragile Lebanon where the Shiite militia Hezbollah plays a dominant role, and furthering efforts to achieve peace between Israelis and Palestinians. That would also take some of the sting out of the region’s dangerous slide into sectarian Sunni-Shiite conflict. Iran has already moved to demonstrate what change could mean with its talks with the United Arab Emirates over the fate of three disputed Gulf islands and inviting the Gulf States to inspect its nuclear facilities. Such shifts would reduce the number of fires in the MENA that the Obama administration has been seeking to control and have prevented it from following through on its intended re-focus on Asia. A resolution of the nuclear issue offers Iran far more than the ultimate lifting of crippling international sanctions. Over the last decade, Iran has been able to effectively counter US policy in MENA through its support of Hezbollah, which is the single most powerful grouping in Lebanon; Hamas, the Islamist Palestinian faction in Gaza; its aid to the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; backing of restive Shiite minorities in the oil-rich Gulf States and Iraq; and ensuring that the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki looks as much toward Tehran as it does to Washington. Iran’s incentive to become more cooperative is the fact that the resolution of the nuclear issue would involve acknowledgement of the Islamic republic as a legitimate regional power and one of seven regional players - alongside Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Pakistan - that have the ability or economic, military and technological strength to project power. It would also allow Iran to capitalize on geostrategic gains it has made despite its international isolation.