Full Text

Insight Turkey, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2009

The Turkish domestic and foreign policy agenda has been occupied by monumental developments over the last three months. Discussions have ranged from a new period in Turkish-US relations in light of US President Barack Obama's historic visit to Ankara, to the efforts for a rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, to the future of Turkish-Israeli relations, and to the strength of the AK Party following the March local elections.

US President Obama was in Turkey in early April. The visit itself carried a message, demonstrating how the interests and policies of Ankara and Washington in the region could be construed in a complementary manner. It was an acknowledgement of Turkey's rising soft power in the Middle East and an occasion for Obama to express his support for Turkey's EU membership bid.

Following upon a recent bitter period in Turkish-American relations, especially in the immediate aftermath of the 2003 Iraq war, Obama's visit was certainly a PR success on the part of Washington. The visit went far beyond a simple undoing of the damage caused by the Bush presidency by laying the groundwork for a deeper cooperation between the two countries in the new era. Emphasizing the value he attaches to Turkey, Obama talked of a "model partnership" with Ankara, a concept that will take shape in the days ahead.

The rediscovery of mutual interests provides a solid ground to move Turkish-US relationship beyond the narrow parameters of a strategic partnership, and redefines it on the basis of a democratic partnership.

Obama's public diplomacy was successful in winning the hearts and minds of the Turkish people. It was long overdue after the Bush years during which mutual distrust started to take root on both sides.

Winning over the Turkish people is the key for any country in achieving a durable and sustainable partnership with Turkey, and the Turkish-American relations are no exception. As the democratization process deepens in Turkey, it becomes more difficult for any Turkish government to remain indifferent to society's demands. This point should be taken very seriously by any country seeking to work with Turkey.

Many Israeli policy makers, for one, have acted on the belief that the strategic imperatives in Turkish-Israeli relations will override people's choices, wishes and demands, and that it is enough to be on good terms with the bureaucratic elite, especially the military, in Turkey. This is an outdated Cold-War mentality that views Turkey as a hierarchically ordered society that can be governed top-down in line with a security perspective. The overwhelming power of democracy in Turkish politics, in contrast, requires paying attention to people's opinions. The Israelis should be aware that without support from the Turkish public the relationship between the two countries is bound to remain fragile.

Turkey held local elections on March 29, 2009, in which the AK Party received 39% of votes nationwide, while the main opposition party CHP managed to garner 23%. The ruling AK Party has lost votes; support was down 8% compared to the 2007 general election, and 3% in comparison to the 2004 local elections. However, the AK Party remains the leading party with its 16% lead on the CHP, its closest contender. Given that the AK Party has been in government for seven years and that elections took place amid a global economic crisis, the AK Party's hold on 39% of the electorate is certainly a success, a success that is enough to form a parliamentary majority in Turkey if general elections were held. When we put the AK Party's performance in the context of Turkey's elections history, it is obvious that even this reduced vote share is a rare victory in Turkish elections as the last time another political party received such a high level of support was the 1984 local elections. It should not be forgotten that this was a party that faced a closure threat last year by the Constitutional Court. The AK Party has survived not only the legal proceedings against it, but also yet another major electoral test, which were starkest indicators that it fully consolidated its place in Turkish politics.

Another topic on Turkey's agenda is whether to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia and to reopen the shared border. The rapprochement that began with the Turkish President's attendance at a soccer match between the two countries' national teams in Yerevan last year has accelerated the progress toward such an outcome. The mutual interest in ensuring stability in the Caucasus and the imperative to address the historical animosity between the peoples of these two countries hinge on a properly working relationship between Turkey and Armenia. The two neighboring countries now are being presented with a major test: they will either move along a path removing the burden of the past and reap the many opportunities waiting ahead, or remain hostage to history. To put it differently, the future of the relationship will come down to the question of whether Turkey and Armenia can resist the pressure to surrender to nationalism. It is time to bury historical animosities in the southern Caucasus, for which bold leadership is needed on both sides.

All these issues are analyzed in depth by distinguished academics in this issue of Insight Turkey.