CIAO DATE: 03/2015
Volume: 39, Issue: 3
Winter 2014/15
The Impact of China on Cybersecurity: Fiction and Friction (PDF)
Jon R. Lindsay
The Chinese cyber threat to the United States has been exaggerated. China’s cyber capabilities are outmatched by those of the West, and Beijing reaps too many benefits from the internet’s liberal norms to attempt to seriously undermine them.
The Inscrutable Intentions of Great Powers (PDF)
Sebastian Rosato
Many scholars argue that great powers can reach confident conclusions about each other’s intentions, but these claims are unpersuasive. Neither the domestic characteristics nor behavior of states offers a reliable basis on which to evaluate intentions. These limitations support the theoretical claims of structural realism: competition, not cooperation, will remain the norm among states.
The Security Bazaar: Business Interests and Islamist Power in Civil War Somalia (PDF)
Aisha Ahmad
The support of the local business community helped to make Islamists’ a powerful force in the Somali civil war. The Islamists gained business support not because of shared religious affiliation, but because they ran a more stable and less costly protection racket than did other belligerents.
Pakistan's Battlefield Nuclear Policy: A Risky Solution to an Exaggerated Threat (PDF)
Jaganath Sankaran
Pakistan has developed tactical nuclear weapons to deter India from executing its Cold Start war doctrine. India, however, has disavowed that doctrine. Further, the use of such weapons against Indian troops inside Pakistan would kill and injure large numbers of Pakistani civilians, while risking massive nuclear retaliation by India. Pakistan should reconsider the role of tactical nuclear weapons in its military strategy.
Llewelyn Hughes, Austin Long
States have long worried that their dependence on oil gives producers a means of coercion. The oil market, however, is far larger and more integrated than it used to be. The potential for coercion differs across a series of distinct market segments. In this varied market, the United States remains the dominant force.
Correspondence: Evolution and Territorial Conflict (PDF)
Raymond Kuo, Dominic D.P. Johnson, Monica Duffy Toft
Raymond Kuo responds to Dominic D.P. Johnson and Monica Duffy Toft's winter 2013/14 International Security article, "Ground for War: The Evolution of Territorial Conflict."
Correspondence: Secrecy, Civil-Military Relations, and India's Nuclear Weapons Program (PDF)
George Perkovich, Gaurav Kampani, Anit Mukherjee
Anit Mukherjee and George Perkovich respond to Gaurav Kampani's spring 2014 International Security article, "New Delhi's Long Nuclear Journey: How Secrecy and International Roadblocks Delayed India's Weaponization."