CIAO DATE: 01/2009
Volume: 9, Issue: 2
Fall/Winter 2005
The Roh Moo Hyun Government's Policy toward North Korea (PDF)
Choong Nam Kim
Despite the emergence of a second North Korea nuclear crisis, President Roh Moo Hyun has expanded the sunshine policy that he inherited. As a result, the Roh government has experienced difficulties in managing both its North Korea policy and the U.S.-ROK alliance. The engagement policy is based on the assumption that inter-Korean cooperation will reduce tension on the Korean peninsula and induce change in the North. The policy appears to be reasonable for the long term, but not for the short term, especially for the resolution of immediate and complex issues such as the North Korea nuclear problem.
The Gaeseong Industrial Park and the Future of Inter-Korean Relations (PDF)
Youn-Suk Kim
Battered by a nearly bankrupted economy and continuous food shortages, North Korea has been cautiously opening its doors to strike economic deals with South Korea in recent years. The closed nature of the North’s economy has resulted in low industrial productivity and efficiency, technological backwardness, and, in the end, economic stagnation. The North is also concerned that with the disparity in economic levels, unification with the South might result in the virtual absorption of the North into the South. Thus, the South’s policy in this regard has been to reassure the North that unity through absorption is neither feasible nor desirable under the current state of military confrontation.
The North Korean Economy at a Crossroads: Problems and Prospects (PDF)
Dick K. Nanto
North Korea stands at a crossroads now that is every bit as momentous as its decision to invade South Korea in 1950. What Kim Jong-il does over the short- and medium-term will put his country either on a path leading to reconciliation with the world and economic and military security or a path leading to a nuclear standoff or military hostilities. As this drama plays out on the world stage, the economy of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea plays a critical role. Economic forces play a twopronged role. Starvation and dismal economic conditions exert pressures on Pyongyang from inside the country, while the prospect of economic assistance and normalized trade and investment relations with other nations provide a powerful incentive for the North Korean leaders to undertake actions that otherwise would be difficult. North Korean is in transition. It can turn back state socialism, state control, and starvation, or it can take the road of China and the states of the Former Soviet Union and join the rest of the world.
Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.
The ROK-US Alliance has been in a state of flux almost since the beginning of the Roh Moo-hyun administration in early 2003. As of the writing of this article, many issues remain up in the air, including the future role of USFK on the Korean Peninsula, the cost of maintaining troops and equipment on the Peninsula (and who will pay for them), the transformation of USFK as a military force, and the move south of both US Army units close to the DMZ and Headquarters USFK in Seoul.
These issues and the steps taken to resolve them remain unresolved as much because of differing perceptions and perspectives regarding the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia because of the ideological differences between the current administrations in Washington and Seoul. As these issues come to the forefront of the foreign policy agendas in the US and the Republic of Korea, this article will attempt to analyze the differing perspectives and why the resolving of these differing views is so important during this key period of the ROK-US Alliance.
China and the Six-Party Talks: The New Turn to Mediation Diplomacy (PDF)
Samuel S. Kim
During more than a half century of its checkered international life, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has not been known for self-initiated mediation diplomacy in the world’s trouble spots. Thus, China’s uncharacteristically proactive mediation efforts in the second US-DPRK nuclear standoff, both reflects and affects significant changes in its foreign-policy thinking and behavior. Beijing’s seemingly abrupt policy shift provides a timely case study for examining its changing role in the shaping of a new international order in East Asia in general and on the Korean peninsular in particular.
In exploring the origins, practice, and implications of China’s new hands-on mediation diplomacy, this article proceeds in four parts. The first briefly tracks China’s role shift and mediation efforts as made manifest and mutating through the five rounds of the Six-Party Talks from August 2003 to November 2005. The second explains the proximate and underlying causes that catapulted Beijing into active mediation. The third critically assesses the possibilities and limitations of China’s influence, especially in Pyongyang and Washington. The article concludes by looking at the North Korean nuclear issue in the context of the asymmetrical triangle of the United States, China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and then suggests a set of policy recommendations toward peaceful resolution of the nuclear standoff on the Korean peninsula.
Russia's Interests and Objectives on the Korean Peninsula (PDF)
The North Korean nuclear crisis that began in October 2002 has presented a challenge for Russia. The crisis began when a North Korean official allegedly acknowledged that his country had been pursuing a secret uranium enrichment program. Since then, Pyongyang has withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, and restarted plutonium reactors whose operations were frozen under a 1994 agreement with the United States. North Korea has claimed that it has processed spent nuclear fuel rods and that it possesses nuclear weapons.
Russian policy makers want to play a role in resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis as a reflection of their country's great power status and because Russia has important interests in Northeast Asia that it wants to protect. As a country neighboring North Korea, Russia could be negatively affected by violent conflict on the peninsula or by a collapse of the North Korean regime. If the North Korean nuclear crisis is not successfully resolved and Pyongyang demonstrates that it has nuclear weapons, it could stimulate a new arms race in Northeast Asia with negative effects on Russia.