CIAO DATE: 02/2009
Volume: 12, Issue: 1
Fall/Winter 2008
Publisher's Pages (PDF)
The Lee Myung-Bak Government's North Korea Policy and the Prospects for Inter-Korean Relations (PDF)
Hong Nack Kim
The inauguration of the Lee Myung-Bak government on February 25, 2008, aroused expectations that President Lee’s new North Korea policy would bring about more effective results in dealing with Pyongyang, including the realization of denuclearization of North Korea. Contrary to initial expectations, Lee’s North Korea policy has encountered unexpected problems and challenges as North Korea has not only suspended official inter-Korean dialogue and contacts since April but also refused to resume the talks with Seoul unless the Lee government would accommodate Pyongyang’s demands: (1) to honor the two inter- Korean summit agreements: the June 15 Joint Declaration (2000) signed between Kim Dae-Jung and Kim Jong-Il and the October 4 (2007) Declaration signed between Kim Jong-Il and Roh Moo-Hyun; (2) to discard the Lee government’s “Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness”; and (3) to abandon the strategy of strengthening South Korea’s alliance with the U.S. and Japan to pressure North Korea. In short, North Korea wants the Lee government to continue the sunshine policy of engagement toward the North. However, it is difficult for the Lee government to accommodate the North’s demand, for President Lee promised during the presidential election campaign in 2007 to discard the sunshine policy as it had failed not only to prevent North Korea’s nuclear weapons program but also to induce North Korea to adopt reform and openness.
Evolving Military Responsibilities in the U.S.-ROK Alliance (PDF)
Bruce Klingner
The U.S.–South Korean security alliance has been indispensable in achieving Washington's strategic objectives and maintaining peace and stability in northeast Asia. A confluence of developments, however, is forcing changes in the alliance. These factors include a changing threat environment, an evolving U.S. military strategy, and South Korea's desire for greater autonomy as a result of its improving military and economic capabilities. It is important that the alliance begin the evolution from a singularly focused mission to a more robust values-based relationship that looks beyond the Korean Peninsula. Without substantial and sustained involvement by the senior political and military leadership, the alliance may not be sufficiently adapted to the new threat environment, including as a hedge against Chinese military modernization. The U.S. and South Korean administrations must also provide a clear strategic vision of the enduring need for the alliance and implement a robust public diplomacy program to prevent the erosion of public and legislative support. The plan to develop a U.S.–South Korean strategic alliance is a testament both to the successes of the long-standing military relationship and to the shared values of the two democracies.
ROK Military Transformation and ROK-US Security and Maritime Cooperation: MD, PSI and Dokdo Island (PDF)
Taewoo Kim
In the last decade the ROK-U.S. alliance has soured as the two ideologically slanted predecessor administrations of Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun brandished ‘idealist policy experiments’ over issues critical to the alliance. Under the banner of ‘autonomy,’ the Roh administration initiated the 2007 decision to separate operational control (OPCON) and dismantle the Combined Forces Command (CFC) by 2012. The Defense Reform 2020 was a decisive masterpiece to placate the conservative realists critical to the Roh’s leftist experiments. The task of redressing the vestige of distortions belongs to the newly elected Lee Myung Bak, who already began restoration of the bilateral relations since the two summits in 2008, which promised to forge a ‘strategic alliance.’ If the 2007 agreement over OPCON and CFC is irreversible, the Lee administration has no other choice but to formulate a new security cooperation while utilizing the Defense Reform as the highway leading to military transformation and upgraded ROK-U.S. cooperation in that regard.
Inter-Korean Strategic Relations and Security Forum in Northeast Asia (PDF)
Young Whan Kihl
As an era of the Bush’s controversial foreign policy and security responses to the post-9.11 war on terrorism is drawing to a close, the DPRK nuclear issue is flaring up once again. The stalemate is setting in on both fronts of inter-Korean relations, with the launching of the new Lee Myung-Bak Administration in the South, and on the Six-Party Talks process of the DPRK nuclear disablement. The paper addresses the Bush Administration policy shift away from the hardline posture toward a more pragmatic and diplomatic direction in the twilight of the second term in office, asymmetry of power and stalemate in inter-Korean relations, following vicious anti-Lee Myung-Bak rhetoric of the DPRK, with concerns over the North’s economic stagnation and failed relations with the South. The notion of peace-building on the Korean Peninsula, as an imagined task for Korea’s future, is treated as premature. The security forum based on the “process-oriented” approach to Korean peace seems better suited as an instrument for the DPRK nuclear dismantlement. The paper closes with few speculations on the future prospects and problems of bringing about an ultimate aim of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula with security and peace that requires restoring the viability of the NPT regime and the DPRK reversal on its withdrawal stance.
"MBnomics": A Review and the Road Ahead (PDF)
Sung-Hee Jwa
This paper reviews the first six months of MBnomics - its strengths, weaknesses, accomplishments and failures, along with suggestions for improvement. Throughout, the paper stresses the unevenness and lopsided nature of economic development which is viewed as the result of economic resources joining and concentrating towards competent, viable economic entities. Such an evolutionary process not only makes economic activity possible, but also leads to individual agents’ and national economic development. After reviewing Korea’s developmental experience over the past 4 decades, I argue that Korea needs to move away from the egalitarian policies of the past 15 years (the so-called “Egalitarian Trap”) by learning from the earlier decades of high growth and economic development when the flow of resources to economically competent agents and regions was encouraged under highly discriminatory policies. In the past 6 months, so-called MBnomics which intended to establish a regime of “big markets and small government” has clearly underperformed with respect to what was originally anticipated, often being misguided and inconsistent in various areas. This paper argues that economic policy remained in line with its original intentions and focused on instilling the developmental spirit of self-help, diligence, and cooperation throughout all aspects of society by putting into place discrimination policies that “help those that help themselves.” MBnomics must not shy away from the lopsidedness created by the development process and should promptly do away with those policies establishing equality at the expense of the economically viable agents.
Eui-Gak Hwang
This paper examines inter-Korean economic cooperation and trade. It reviews the political background and current status of the idiosyncratic determinants of inter-Korean economic cooperation and trade, followed by its resultant impacts as well as policy suggestions for future directions. Over the last 20 years, inter-Korean trade increased by about 90-fold from 20 million US dollars in 1989 to 1.8 billion US dollars in 2007. Since 1999, in particular, inter-Korean economic cooperation has expanded significantly. Its share of North Korean total trade accounted for 13 % in 1999, 26% in 2005 and jumped to 61.2% in 2007. Such an increase is due mostly to increasing aid and investment from the South. While the economic gap between the North and South is still widening, the North’s brinkmanship strategy shows no sign of ending. The increase in aid and investment from the South owes largely to non-economic factors to help the deteriorating economy and appeasement policy to lure North Korea out of isolation. The success of this lopsided policy by the South is yet to be seen, but a reciprocity principle would likely work better by encouraging the autarchic North to move toward a selfsustaining market economy.