CIAO DATE: 01/2009
Volume: 11, Issue: 1
Spring/Summer 2007
The US-ROK Alliance: An American View (PDF)
Patrick M. Morgan
The United States and the ROK have had a very close association for more than fifty years, but in recent years that relationship has experienced considerable stress and strain. Many analysts now express great concern about its future prospects.1 In fact, it is getting more difficult to defend the continued existence of the alliance. The strains are manifest and multiple. The two governments have been living with them for some time, with neither willing to make the strenuous efforts required to either reverse the deterioration or abandon the alliance as incompatible with their contemporary security concerns and perspectives. So the alliance is limping along. As is the security situation on the Korean peninsula that the alliance has existed to deal with – it is limping along as well.
A Changing Paradigm of U.S.-East Asian Relations: Strategic and Economic Perspectives (PDF)
Terence Roehrig
There is little doubt that portions of the strategic and economic paradigm in East Asia and for U.S.-East Asia relations have in general been changing in dramatic ways for the past ten to fifteen years. Several contributing factors are well known: China’s economic rise along with the potential strategic and political role it is likely to play in the future; the possibility of a more assertive Japan that may revise its constitution in an effort to become a “normal” country; and South Korea, in possession of greater economic, military and political power accompanied by the confidence to be a more significant player in the region. Moreover, even the notion of “East Asia” may be less and less relevant as economic integration is no longer bound by old geographic delineations, particularly with the region’s growing economic and political ties with Southeast Asia and India, ties that are breaking down some of these regional distinctions. Finally, the United States is facing a more confident and multipolar Asia that is organizing to play a greater role in controlling its future and increasingly will require a different approach than in the past.
A Nuclear North Korea and Prospects for the Korean Economy: An International Business Perspective (PDF)
Yoon-Shik Park
In October 2006, North Korea (officially the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK in short) tested a nuclear bomb based on plutonium, thus proclaiming it to be a full member of the select nuclear bomb club. Whether the test was a resounding success or not is still not fully resolved, and the status of North Korea’s uranium enrichment program is yet to be admitted by the DPRK government. Faced with strong international condemnation and a movement towards punitive sanctions coordinated by the United Nations, DPRK reached an agreement at the six party talks on February 13, 2007, under which DPRK eventually agreed to abandon its nuclear programs in return for aid. The accord implements a deal reached in September 2005, but the talks had stalled until early 2007. Paradoxically, a nuclear North Korea may lead to successful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and robust economic developments there. As the DPRK regime feels confident enough in security terms now that it is recognized as a nuclear club member, it can enter into a “big deal” with its main opposing powers, the United States, Japan and South Korea, for swapping its nuclear weapons program for an iron-clad security guarantee and massive economic assistance for the modernization of the DPRK economy.
Preview of the 17th Presidential Election in Korea: Candidates, Issues and Cleavages (PDF)
Kap Yun Lee
At present, all signs seem to point in the direction of a conservative victory in the 17th presidential elections that will be held on December 19, 2007.1 President Roh Moo-hyun's job approval rating has been lower than 30%, and often below 20%, for more than two years, and his UP (Uri Party) is supported by barely 10% of the public. The opposition GNP (Grand National Party) has become by far the most popular party, enjoying more than 40% of the popular support. The economy has been in doldrums since 2002, slowing down to an annual growth of 4%, after an average annual growth of 7% in the preceding decade. Business and consumer confidence in the market is declining, gaps between the rich and the poor are ever more increasing, and unemployment among young people is steadily on the rise. North Korea's Kim Jong-il did not help Roh either. Despite the sincere and continuous provision of economic aid to the North by the Roh government, North Korea responded only by demanding more unconditional aid without taking any reciprocal measures to contribute to the peace and prosperity of the peninsula. The nationalistic public mood soured, in particular after a nuclear test by the North in 2006, and the people no longer wholeheartedly support Roh's conciliatory policy.
Leadership for Nation Building: the Case of Korean Presidents (PDF)
Choong Nam Kim
South Korea (Korea hereafter) has represented one of the most successful cases in the history of nation building. The country, known as “an East Asian model of economic prosperity and political democracy,” emerged as a modern nation in a single generation and under the most trying circumstances—the legacy of colonial rule, national division, the Korean War and continual confrontation with the Communist North. Its success in nation building is extraordinary, not only in the history of this country, but also in comparison with other third world countries.
A Nuclear Armed Korea as a Factor in Sino-American Relations (PDF)
Elizabeth Van Vie Davis
Few things have changed China’s foreign policy toward the United States more subtly than the issue of a nuclear Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, commonly known as North Korea. The catalysts of these events were, on the one hand, the July 5, 2006, long-range missile test and the October 9, 2006, nuclear weapon test. On the other hand, the Six Party Talks that had been designed perhaps to prevent these very events have also been a catalyst to changes in US-China relations. In part these changes in Chinese foreign policy toward the US are because of changes within China itself. Partly these changes in Chinese foreign policy toward the US reflect China’s changing role in the international system. And partly they are in response to US policy toward China. The nexus of these three elements has been a more respectful and open relationship between the two powers, but one still fraught with nuances and complexities.