CIAO DATE: 03/2009
Volume: 88, Issue: 2
March/April 2009
The Precedents for Withdrawal: From Vietnam to Iraq
Bennett Ramberg
As Washington ponders how long to stay in Iraq, it would do well to remember the limited impact of the United States' withdrawal from Vietnam and Cambodia in the 1970s, Lebanon in the 1980s, and Somalia in the 1990s.
The Japan Fallacy: Today's U.S. Financial Crisis Is Not Like Tokyo's "Lost Decade"
Richard Katz
The financial crisis of 2008 need not usher in a replay of Japan's "lost decade" of the 1990s. The current crisis is the result of correctable policy mistakes rather than deep structural flaws in the economy.
Center Stage for the Twenty-first Century: Power Plays in the Indian Ocean
Robert D. Kaplan
Already the world's preeminent energy and trade interstate seaway, the Indian Ocean will matter even more as India and China enter into a dynamic great-power rivalry in these waters.
How Development Leads to Democracy: What We Know About Modernization
Ronald Inglehart, Christian Welzel
Democratic institutions cannot be set up easily; they are likely to emerge only when certain social and cultural conditions exist. But economic development and modernization push those conditions in the right direction and make democracy increasingly likely.
Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions
Stephen G. Brooks, William C. Wohlforth
The current architecture of international institutions must be updated, but skeptics question whether the United States is up to the task. They need not worry: Washington still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform.
The Geoengineering Option: A Last Resort Against Global Warming?
David G. Victor, M. Granger Morgan, Jay Apt, John Steinbruner, Katharine Ricke
As climate change accelerates, policymakers may have to consider "geoengineering" as an emergency strategy to cool the planet. Engineering the climate strikes most as a bad idea, but it is time to start taking it seriously.
Free at Last? The Arab World in the Twenty-first Century
Bernard Lewis
The future of the Arab world will depend on the outcome of a battle between those advocating Islamic theocracy and those seeking to establish liberal democracy.
Germany's Russia Question: A New Ostpolitik for Europe
Constanze Stelzenmüller
Germany is a bridge between Russia and the West, and how Berlin chooses to deal with Moscow will set the tone for how the United States and the rest of Europe manage their own relationships with Russia.
Bank Shots: How the Financial System Can Isolate Rogues
Rachel L. Loeffler
Financial sanctions have become a key tool of U.S. foreign policy. Measures taken against Iran and North Korea make clear that this new financial statecraft can be effective, but true success will require persuading global banks to accept a shared sense of risk.
Cambodia's Curse: Struggling to Shed the Khmer Rouge's Legacy
Joel Brinkley
While much of Cambodia -- and of the world -- holds on to memories of the country's sorrowful past under the Khmer Rouge, few seem to notice that the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen is destroying the nation.
Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt
Steven A. Cook
Bruce Rutherford's Egypt After Mubarak is an ambitious effort to explain how the Muslim Brotherhood, the judiciary, and the business sector can work in parallel, if not exactly together, to influence Egypt's political future.
Michael D. Bell, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Prem G. Kumar
To resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, policymakers will have to develop a new regime for Jerusalem's Old City. Striking an Israeli-Syrian deal that draws Damascus away from Tehran is also essential, but it will be harder than it appears.
Martin Indyk, Richard Haass, Dore Gold, Shimon Shapira
James M. Lindsay
Derek Byerlee, Alain de Janvry, Joan VanWassenhove, Donna Barry
Frank Procida, Peter Huessy
Amy B. Frumin