CIAO DATE: 01/2009
Volume: 9, Issue: 3
Fall 2008
Foreword: End of Post-Cold War Honeymoon
Russia's actions in Georgia showed that Moscow has rejected the Western-sponsored vision of transcending military threats in Europe for the ex-Soviet regime. Robert Hunter, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, explains what was lost. Dieter Dettke, a veteran German policy analyst, sees Berlin will not confront Moscow.
With much of the global financial superstructure in meltdown, EA's previous analyses are followed up in this issue with a discussion on the limits of sovereign wealth funds as a source of salvation for U.S. and European businesses.
In defense, despite the urgent need of a new aerial refueling tanker for the U.S. Air Force, politics has forced an unfortunate delay in the battle between Airbus and Boeing for the order. The book reviews in this issue include an insightful account of the long-term trends making it almost unthinkable for Europe to field enough soldiers to fight any of the world's new wars.
Presciently, France's former foreign minister, Hubert Védrine, talked to EA in the summer about the return of nationalist realpolitik after the demise of over-optimistic assumptions about a Pax Americana.
A Call To Be Listened To
Jacqueline Grapin
We recently lost one of the most respected figures in Europe, just at a time when he would have been most needed. Bronislaw Geremek, who died in a car accident in Brussels in July, was a former Polish foreign minister and then a distinguished member of the European Parliament. Historically, he was a pivotal figure in the fight of the Solidarity movement to end Communist rule in Poland and one of the leading statesmen of the democratic era that followed. A professor of history who had become Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland before being elected to the European Parliament, at 76, Geremek was in full stride as a man who had distilled personal and political wisdom from his involvement in history both as an historian and as an actor in European developments. He was a friend of the United States and one of the most ardent supporters of the European Union, who was Chairman of the Jean Monnet Foundation in Lausanne.
I remember meeting him by chance as we were both literally running down the street in the center of Warsaw on the 14th of July 1997, trying to reach in time the place where President Bill Clinton was going to address a huge crowd a few minutes later. All the buildings were decorated with American flags, and the crowds were full of excitement. It struck me that this high official - recognizable to everyone with his white beard - could walk freely in a public street, without a limousine or bodyguards: at every corner in the old city, people of all walks of life greeted him naturally. On his visits to The European Institute in Washington, he always conveyed his dedication to the goal of turning politics into a noble art. A difficult challenge, but perhaps not impossible.
At this juncture, amid confusion about how to surmount the crisis for the EU caused by the negative vote of the Irish electorate on the Lisbon Treaty, it is worth remembering the advice given by Professor Geremek in an article that appeared in Le Monde almost simultaneously with his death.1 He stressed that every effort should be made to ensure that the treaty be ratified in all the other EU countries where it is signed. Don't ask the Irish people to vote on this again, Geremek said in substance, because the outcome of the Irish referendum should be respected and governments should not try to bypass the popular will. He recommended that the other 26 governments should do their best to ratify the treaty: whatever else, the result will be a text signed and ratified in a majority of the other 26 member states. In effect, a majority will have approved the Lisbon treaty, and that will add legitimacy for the European Council to proceed, together with the European Commission and the European Parliament, to implement some measures which do not require changes in the existing treaty.
For instance, the Council can decide that the High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (now Javier Solana) will from now on permanently chair the Council of Foreign Ministers and be responsible for a newly created European Foreign Service. Similarly, the European Council could decide that the President of the European Commission will chair the meetings of the European Council. While not fully representing the EU abroad, the President of the European Commission would represent the European institutions. The European Council could also propose that the European Parliament be recognized as having the right to propose legislative initiatives on the basis of public petitions (that garner, for example, one million signatures). The European Parliament could also be encouraged to take initiatives to reinforce its cooperation with the national parliaments in preparing European legislation. Increasing the rights of the European Parliament could be done by unanimous decisions of the European Council.
Of course, there are changes that cannot be accomplished without a new treaty, particularly with regard to the voting system in the Council. Geremek was particularly firm that the principle of unanimity should be changed. It reminded him of a similar historical disposition in 18th-century Poland, the liberum veto that had led the country to political disaster. For the EU now to produce a new, more practical majoritysystem and to decide one or two questions that cannot be settled with the existing treaties, he suggested a new approach. Instead of bundling texts of existing treaties into a complex new proposal to be put to the public, two or three clear questions should be submitted to voters in all 27 EU member countries at the same time - for instance, on the election days for the European Parliament in June 2009.
Such a process would be consistent with democratic principles. Moreover, at a moment when Russia's actions press the Old Europe and the New Europe to agree among themselves and with the United States, the West cannot afford to cling blindly to institutional arrangements that everyone knows are inadequate to the needs of the situation. Enlargement has not reduced the EU's ability to make decisions as much as many expected, but the rules of the treaty of Nice from 2001, which was supposed to be temporary and short-lived, must be improved. Both Europe and the United States feel the need for an efficient decision-making machinery in the EU at a juncture when both face the same challenges - defining relations with Russia, China, and the emerging economies; ensuring energy security; boosting economic growth; fighting terrorism and poverty; stabilizing the Middle East.
It is tempting for sovereign European nations and for the powerful United States to let the role of the European institutions be minimized. But Europeans and Americans would be better served if they sought to share an ambitious vision of what the European Union should be able to provide - and how.
The End of Happy Endings in the Post-Cold War
All this year the EU has been grappling with challenges coming from its periphery: Kosovo’s fate, Turkey’s evolution, and immigration flows north across the Mediterranean. The idea of closer ties among all the countries around the Med was an ambitious attempt to come to grips with the southern problems. The war in Georgia demonstrated that there are hotter issues for the EU to the east.
Georgia: Breakdown of Vision the West Had for a New Europe
Robert E. Hunter
The post-cold war vision proffered by the U.S. and its allies in NATO was an inclusive model of security for all the countries in Europe and for Russia and its neighbors to the south. Russia’s leadership has turned away from it, but the vision remains sound and open to Moscow – if the Kremlin thinks wisely about the future.
Russia and the EU: The Difficult Path to a New Partnership
Dieter Dettke
The author delves into the historical factors that worked against acceptance in Russia of Western-style governance. Despite the disappointments associated with Putin’s rule, events in Georgia must not blind Europe to its long-term need for a stable relationship with Russia. Berlin and Paris see that – and Moscow will eventually see it, too.
The End of History? - Certainly Not Through Asia’s Eyes
William Marmon
According to Kishore Mahbubani, a strategist in Singapore, the West – especially Europe – has presumed too long that Asia is and will remain “dormant.” As Marmon explains, Mahbubani is perhaps the most articulate exponent of a widely-held view in Asia: that Westerners are dangerously behind the curve in reading the major trends of global change.
SWF’s Are Making Political Waves in the U.S. and EU
Thomas J. Karol
Western countries need and largely welcome the fresh capital that can be injected by SWFs. But these funds are liable to arouse controversy, often because they are run
by countries disliked in the West. Their tax-free status (as government-owned entities) may offer politicians a handle on these funds.
Europe Must Present a Single Market to SWF's
Antonio De Lecea
The Commission hopes to help put in place a Europe-wide approach to sovereign wealth funds designed to avoid a situation in which the investors play off EU countries against each other. A common European attitude may help sensitize the funds about the value of transparency concerning their own rules of the road.
Norway’s Wealth Fund Answers to Voters
Jarle Bergo
Norway is a democracy that has a “wealth fund” thanks to hydro-carbon exports. To maintain voter support for saving and investing instead of spending the revenue now, the fund has strict and open rules about its policies. The author outlines Norway’s system as an example to be studied by others – including the IMF, which is working on a code of best practices.
U.S. Flap on the Aerial Tanker Could Be Self-Defeating
Robbin F. Laird
The Pentagon chose the Northrop-EADS tanker because it fits the plan to integrate strike fighters and UAVs for sustained ground-support action. Protectionist Congressmen seem to ignore the need for a global supply-chain that alone can provide an affordable path for the U.S. Air Force to modernize.
Europe Can Offer Defense Deals Washington Can’t Refuse
Martin Sieff
European defense firms can find U.S. markets. The Pentagon’s procurement budget will be cut by billions, and no Congress will turn down proposals that offer many more weapons, far more cheaply – especially when U.S. companies do not even produce the same systems. There are many niche markets.
Reforms in U.S. Licensing Process Facilitate Joint Allied Operations
Robert S. Kovac
U.S. export controls have become increasingly complex. The State Department has instituted reforms and initiatives to improve its ability to manage this challenge in a way that protects the U.S. while ensuring that allies have what they need to participate in common military operations. These initiatives include enhanced leadership and staffing, more robust enforcement activities, innovative new treaties and a number of business practice reforms.
Moving Forward with the Transatlantic Economic Council
Daniel M. Price
The Transatlantic Economic Council was a major U.S.-EU innovation designed to negotiate away non-tariff barriers between the two markets. To consolidate the promise of its first year at work, it needs to choose its issues and do something tangibly effective about them, according to Dan Price, the White House point man in the TEC.
Energy Research: Grasping Transatlantic Opportunities
Phyllis Yoshida
The U.S. and EU are tackling many of the same challenges in energy technology, ranging from renewables to nuclear. Strong emphasis is needed on coal and the potential of carbon capture and sequestration systems to enable countries to use this abundant resource cleanly.
Non-Nuclear Energy Cooperation Needs a New Push
Raffaele Liberali
The current priority for the European Union is to link up efficiently the various stages and platforms of its ambitious, multi-faceted blueprint for using research and investment to transform the energy economy in the coming decade. It is time to move ahead energetically with concrete actions.
A Pragmatist's View of Global Geopolitics
Hubert Védrine
The former French foreign minister takes off the rose-tinted glasses in which the world appears to be an “international community” of enlightened governments ready to work for the general good. International stability requires policy-makers to channel national interests and power.
Védrine's World: The Outlook of Nations around the Globe
François Clemençeau
Atlas du Monde Global [Atlas of the Globalized World]
By Pascal Boniface et Hubert Védrine.
Reviewed by François Clemençeau
The Demilitarization of Europeans
Michael Mosettig
Where Have all the Soldiers Gone? The Transformation of Modern Europe.
By James J. Sheehan. Reviewed by Michael Mosettig
A cogent reading of 20th-century history in which the author recounts how Europe became “a military state” and then after the cold war reacted against that trend to become a “civilian state” – in which dying in wars was no longer part of the social contract. Now, martial values may be due for revival.
The Way Globalization Actually Works in Europe
Megan Watson
Globalization and Europe: Prospering in the New Whirled Order By Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan. Reviewed by Megan Watson
Two proven analysts turn to statistics (rather than fear-mongering or cheerleading) to weigh the questions of whether globalization is good or bad for Europeans. The
verdict? Good overall. Job losses are outweighed by new jobs created in the process. But individuals remain fearful about their personal fate.
New Markets Expanding for Dirty Businesses
Michael Mosettig
McMafia: A Journey Through the Global Criminal World
By Misha Glenny. Reviewed by Michael Mosettig
Organized crime in Russia became a key component of the now-defunct Soviet system and in the post-cold war era it has become a new multinational venture. The
author takes us on a journey through this underworld, showing how, through the Balkans, new mafias reach into the EU.
Lisbon Treaty's Stumble — and Prospects
John Bruton
Shortly after the Irish voted “no” in their referendum on the Lisbon treaty, John Bruton, speaking in his personal capacity, addressed The European Institute and explained the reasons for the outcome and what should happen next. A former Irish prime minister as well as a high EU representative, he offers unique insights into the issue.