CIAO DATE: 10/2010
Volume: 4, Issue: 3
Summer 2010
Janine Reinhard
This paper examines the EU’s usage of conditionality for democracy promotion within the European Neighbourhood Policy and its conditions, possibilities and limitations. In doing so, I will first develop a theoretical framework for analysing mechanisms of democracy promotion in general and conditionality as a state-centred, rational-choice mechanism in particular. I will show that, apart from the attractiveness of the incentives, there are other variables crucial for a successful use of conditionality. Furthermore, conditionality might be used as a promising strategy for the formal implementation of democratic institutions. However, in completing the consolidation of democracy, conditionality is highly limited. The empirical part of the paper will focus on EU democracy promotion in Ukraine and the incentives the EU offers to Ukraine instead of a membership perspective. With the help of this case study it will be discussed whether these elements of flexible integration are suitable for promoting democracy. Examples of such incentives are a visa-free regime, a new enhanced agreement, or a free trade area.
EU Engagement in Conflict Resolution in Georgia: Towards a More Proactive Role (PDF)
Dr. Mehmet Bardakçı
The EU’s role in conflict resolution and peace building has evolved in response to the changes in the international system, the EU’s own internal political dynamics, and the EU’s capacity and willingness to play a major role in regional and international conflicts. During the 1990s, the EU approached the South Caucasian region the same way it approached the other former Soviet republics. In spite of the enhanced profile of Georgia in EU foreign policy after the Rose Revolution in 2003, the EU was content with providing technical and economic aid to Tbilisi and supporting the negotiations between Tbilisi and its breakaway regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Despite its failure to preclude the outbreak of the conflict, the EU’s role in conflict resolution in Georgia has paradoxically been enhanced in the aftermath of the August 2008 Russian-Georgian War. It is, however, important to note that in spite of these positive developments in the EU’s role in conflict resolution, Brussels’ efforts to promote its visibility in the region is to some extent constrained by the lack of a coherent conflict resolution strategy for the Eastern Neighbourhood, the “capacityexpectations” gap, and an increasingly self-confident Russia.
Religion and its Importance in International Politics: A Case Study of 2008 Russian-Georgian War (PDF)
Ines-Jacqueline Werkner
War is "contrary to the will of God", according to a 1948 statement from the World Council of Churches in Amsterdam. However, are religious communities able to prevent wars? Despite the lack of importance placed on religion, partially due to the secularisation thesis,1 religions' potential for violence has become increasingly important in the social sciences since the end of the Cold War and particularly since the attacks of September 11, 2001. However, a question about the peace-making potential of religions increasingly arises in international politics and peace and conflict studies. In this contribution, the role of the Orthodox Churches in the 2008 Russian-Georgian war will be empirically examined. My findings show that the Russian and Georgian Orthodox Churches acted as "double players" during this military conflict whereby they could not release their peace-making potential. I argue that the churches were perceived not only as religious players with a religious peace message but also as political players that supported national claims. As a consequence, the status of religion as an intervening variable – such as assumed in the constructivist approach – is called into question.
From Racketeer to Emir: A Political Portrait of Doku Umarov, Russia's Most Wanted Man (PDF)
Kevin Daniel Leahy
On March 29, 2010, two female suicide assailants blew themselves up at two separate locations along Moscow’s underground network, killing at least 39 people. Two days later, the leader of the rebel movement in the Northern Caucasus, Doku Umarov, claimed responsibility for the attacks. For those monitoring the political situation in the Northern Caucasus, Umarov’s claim of responsibility came as no surprise. Even so, few analysts have been able to shed any meaningful light on Umarov’s core political beliefs. This is not surprising considering that so much of Umarov’s background remains shrouded in uncertainty. The following paper represents a tentative attempt to sketch Umarov’s private and political background, from his early adulthood in the early 1980s up to his portentous proclamation of the Caucasus Emirate in 2007.
Andrey Kazantsev
The deep and multidimensional crisis of Gazprom in 2009-2010 is analyzed in this paper as a crisis of the specific geopolitical model of the “energy super-state” that was especially important for Russian foreign policy towards Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Russia’s attempts to monopolize the sphere of gas production and gas transportation in this part of the world, institutionally represented by the state-controlled monopoly Gazprom, was a key element for sustaining this geopolitical model. It is argued that this policy was based on a configuration of Russian geopolitical and economic interests that could be economically sustained only in the period of high energy prices. After the start of the global gas market crisis and, specifically, Gazprom’s crisis, this configuration has started to disappear. This may have a profound influence on Russian foreign policy towards Europe and the Former Soviet Union.
Eurasian Bargaining, Agriculture, and the Doha Round (PDF)
Sarita D. Jackson
This article explores the participation of the Eurasian countries that have recently joined the World Trade Organization and are thus a part of the Recently Acceded Members (RAMs) coalition. The author argues that the active participation of these countries with small economies deserves attention in the WTO agricultural talks. Most studies focus on the leverage of the larger economies among the developing nations such as Brazil, China, India and South Africa. The article goes further to highlight that Eurasian countries have the ability to continue to push for flexibility provisions and can benefit from China’s classification as a RAMs country. On the other hand, these same countries face the challenge of becoming more competitive in the international agricultural market. However, those challenges can be addressed through developing infrastructure, technology and skills to allow for smaller Eurasian WTO members to become efficient producers and competitive exporters.
Heiko Krueger
On 22 July 2010 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) reached a final decision in one of its most momentous cases: Kosovo. The media response was huge and many headlines were plain in pointing out that “Kosovo's independence is legal”.1 But what sounds so clear at first sight arguably becomes an erroneous assumption upon closer examination. Indeed, the ICJ explicitly avoided deciding upon the legality of Kosovo's independence. Finally, there are sound reasons to question the legal significance of the Court’s findings.
Ukraine: A Challenge for U.S., EU & NATO Regional Policy (PDF)
Tamerlan Vahabov
President Barack Obama’s current strategy of engagement with former adversaries is right on track. Russia stands out as a major short-term success story of this strategy. The signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) Agreement, achieving Russia’s approval to use its territory as an alternative supply route for the International Security Assistance Force’s (ISAF) operations in Afghanistan, and Russia’s increased activity to pressure Iran on nuclear issues are remarkable. In the long run, Obama’s main challenge will be to turn these concessions into sustained cooperation. Among all these questions of potential contention between the United States and Russia, this research paper will specifically center on Ukraine. Its key objective is to assess whether Ukraine’s current institutional neutrality and its so far unreformed energy sector will negatively affect Ukrainian democracy and make Kiev increasingly lean toward Moscow’s political orbit.
"It's in Georgia's interest to be friendly with Russia" (PDF)
Dr. Alexander Rondeli
"Russia Puts Comparatively Little Effort into Using Soft Power in the South Caucasus" (PDF)
Dr. Timothy Blauvelt