CIAO DATE: 11/2008
Volume: 9, Issue: 4
January 2008
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Regional Overview: Tentative Multilateralism and Democracy in Action (PDF)
Ralph A. Cossa, Brad Glosserman
The quarter began with high hopes, but it was all down hill after that. On Oct. 3, Beijing announced a "second phase" implementation plan at the Six-Party Talks to be accomplished by Dec. 31, but the new year tolled with the most critical of the promised actions – a "complete and correct declaration" of all North Korean nuclear programs – nowhere to be found. The much-anticipated ASEAN Charter was signed this quarter but hopes that Myanmar would somehow be penalized for its brutal suppression of peaceful protests earlier in the fall were dashed. The third East Asia Summit took place but left outside observers uncertain about its place in the greater multilateral mix. The global warming meeting expelled a lot of hot air in producing a not very specific "Bali Roadmap." Meanwhile, the democratic process remained alive and well, with new governments being selected in Australia, South Korea, and Thailand, even as the Chinese were ruling that Hong Kong would not be ready for more representational government until at least 2017. On the economic front, 2007 proved to be a good year for Asia and most forecasters see only a modest slowdown in 2008.
U.S.-Japan: Distracted Governments Make some Positive Progress (PDF)
Mike Green, Nicholas Szechenyi
Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo outlined his foreign policy agenda in an address to the Diet, highlighting the U.S.-Japan alliance and international cooperation as the foundations of Japanese diplomacy. But legislation authorizing Japan’s naval refueling mission in the Indian Ocean became a political football in a divided legislature and expired, forcing Fukuda to draft a new bill and extend the Diet session twice in an attempt to continue Japan’s support for the war on terror. The importance of the bill was noted during a November summit in Washington that also covered other issues including the Six-Party Talks and concerns in Japan about a perceived shift in the U.S. position on Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea. Other developments such as a new agreement on host nation support for U.S. forces in Japan and a successful sea-based missile defense test demonstrated forward trajectory for alliance cooperation. Yet the quarter ended with other issues unresolved, namely Japan’s suspension of Indian Ocean refueling operations and Pyongyang’s failure to come clean on its nuclear programs.
U.S. - China: China Signals Irritation with U.S. Policy (PDF)
Bonnie Glaser
China’s refusal to allow the USS Kitty Hawk to make a scheduled visit in Hong Kong for Thanksgiving refocused attention on bilateral differences over Taiwan and Tibet. It also raised questions about civilian-military coordination in China and highlighted the mistrust between U.S. and Chinese militaries. A series of agreements were reached to promote better relations between the U.S. and Chinese militaries during a visit to China by Defense Secretary Robert Gates and a subsequent round of the Defense Consultative Talks. Economic and trade issues were at the top of the bilateral agenda as the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade and Strategic Economic Dialogue convened and produced some successes, although not on the niggling issue of China’s currency valuation.
U.S. - Korea: North Disables Facilities, But Resists Declaration (PDF)
Donald G. Gross, Hannah Oh
While North Korea’s nuclear disablement actions encouraged U.S. officials this quarter, Pyongyang’s unwillingness to make a "complete and correct" declaration of its nuclear program created a potentially major obstacle in the Six-Party Talks and left a diplomatic dilemma. Meanwhile, the election of South Korea’s conservative party candidate, Lee Myung-bak, signified that Seoul and Washington will likely have a more coordinated policy approach toward North Korea. Lee stressed that he would adopt a "pragmatic" approach and support large-scale South Korean economic assistance to Pyongyang – but only if North Korea first abandons its nuclear program. U.S. and South Korean officials sparred this quarter over Korea’s decision to suspend U.S. beef shipments. They were unable to resolve this issue, although President Roh Moo-hyun and President-elect Lee pledged to work together to ratify the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) at the upcoming session of the National Assembly in February.
U.S. - Russia: Putin Picks a Successor (PDF)
Joseph Ferguson
In December, Vladimir Putin named his preferred successor, longtime aide and fellow Petersburger Dmitri Medvedev, and appears to be stepping down – sort of. While George Bush proclaims to have understood Putin after their first meeting in 2001, most observers of Russia in the U.S. have been arguing over Putin and what his government represents for the better part of eight years. Now that the Kremlin has come forward with its own explanation, and has been bandying about the term "sovereign democracy," the question of what Putin and the Kremlin represent is no longer hard to decipher. Meanwhile, the designation of Medvedev as the preferred successor to the presidency could be seen as a plus for the U.S. Many analysts view him as an economic liberal; most importantly, he has no known background in the intelligence or the security services. But the fact that he is a relative political lightweight leaves the door open for the return of Putin, or his retention of power as the kingmaker behind closed doors, or even as prime minister.
U.S. - Southeast Asia: The New ASEAN Charter Bedeviled by Burma's Impunity (PDF)
Sheldon W. Simon
While the ASEAN 10 celebrated the association’s 40th anniversary by initialing its first Charter at its November Singapore summit, Burma’s vicious crackdown on thousands of democracy and human rights demonstrators dampened the excitement. The Bush administration placed new sanctions on the Burmese junta, including the Treasury Department’s freezing of assets of companies doing business in Burma and possibly even banks that handle their transactions. Moreover, Washington warned that an ASEAN-U.S. Trade Agreement now depends on Burma’s genuine progress toward democracy – an unlikely prospect as long as the junta continues to rule. For the Philippines, Washington has promised more economic and military aid focused primarily on the restive south but partially conditioned on a better human rights performance. Human rights concerns also dominated U.S. relations with Malaysia and Thailand with respect to Kuala Lumpur’s crackdown on ethnic Indian demonstrations and Thailand’s harsh treatment of Muslim dissidents in the southern provinces.
China-Southeast Asia: Singapore Summits, Harmony, and Challenges (PDF)
Robert Sutter, Chin-Hao Huang
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s active agenda in regional summits coinciding with the ASEAN Plus China, ASEAN Plus Three (with Japan and South Korea), and East Asia Summit meetings in Singapore in November was the highlight of the quarter. Chinese officials adhered to the line of emphasizing harmonious relations with Southeast Asian and other countries, but ran across some difficulties involving Myanmar, Vietnam, and climate change. Beijing is making a diplomatic investment in managing the unfolding crisis in Myanmar, despite its adherence to the principles of sovereignty and noninterference. Longstanding territorial disputes with Vietnam broke into the open this quarter with back-and-forth accusations and complaints.
China - Taiwan: Beijing Keeps Its Cool (PDF)
David G. Brown
At the 17th Party Congress in October, Hu Jintao authoritatively reiterated Beijing’s desire for a peace agreement on the basis of the one China principle. Behind this positive public posture, Beijing remains deeply concerned about the referendum on joining the UN under the name "Taiwan" that Chen Shui-bian is relentlessly promoting. Yet Beijing has kept its rhetoric under control. It has pressed the U.S. to do more to stop the referendum and has worked with some success to mobilize international criticism of it. Washington has continued to make known to the public in Taiwan its reasons for opposing this referendum and, to underline the message, Washington has put Taiwan’s purchase of more F-16 fighter jets on hold. That Chen is pushing ahead with the referendum despite international opposition only confirms that his purpose is primarily election mobilization.
North Korea - South Korea: Sunshine Deepened, only to Dim? (PDF)
Aidan Foster-Carter
The last quarter of 2007 was significant for inter-Korean relations and began with the second North-South summit. No mere symbolic one-off event, the summit went on to produce numerous follow-up meetings. It appeared that an era of regular, sustained and largely practical intercourse between Seoul and Pyongyang had begun, at long last and irreversibly. Yet, two shadows threaten to dim this institutionalization of the South’s "Sunshine" policy. On Dec. 19 South Koreans chose Lee Myung-bak as their president for the next five years. Lee has vowed to review all recent deals with the North, to demand more reciprocity from Kim Jong-il, and to link aid and other progress to Pyongyang’s nuclear compliance in the ongoing Six-Party Talks. Meanwhile, Pyongyang failed to fulfill its pledge to make a full declaration of all its nuclear activities by the end of the year. Hence 2008 could go either way. The unprecedented practical cooperation may continue or be left unfinished or marking time in the face of political change.
China - Korea: Underhanded Tactics and Stolen Secrets (PDF)
Scott Snyder
The Six-Party Talks agreement on next steps in North Korea’s denuclearization and the inter-Korean summit declaration shaped developments in China-Korean relations in the last quarter of 2007. Chinese Communist Party official Liu Yunshan visited Pyongyang in late October with a message from Hu Jintao. Similarly, Six-Party Talks lead negotiator Wu Dawei visited Pyongyang in mid-December to encourage counterparts to follow through on obligations to disable and declare nuclear facilities by the end of the year. South Korean telecommunications companies worked hard to gain an advantage over global competitors in China, while Korean automobile and steel manufacturers faced new challenges as industrial espionage involving proprietary technology drew an even higher profile in both sectors. China’s search for financing has not bypassed the Korean equity market, as Korea’s China-focused equity funds gained while the Korean Stock Exchange attempts to attract Chinese firms to list directly on the Korean exchange.
Japan - China: Politics in Command: Part 2 (PDF)
James J. Przystup
Beijing welcomed the new Fukuda government and Japan’s new prime minister made clear his commitment to building the strategic relationship with China. However, the new government in Tokyo soon became preoccupied with the passage of a new antiterrorism special measures law, Defense Ministry scandals, and the continuing pension fund imbroglio. Despite repeated commitments by political leadership in Tokyo and Beijing to joint development of the oil and natural gas resources in the East China Sea, there is no tangible resolution of the issue in sight. At the end of the year, joint development remained an aspiration. Meanwhile, as underscored by the first meeting of the Japan-China High Level Economic Dialogue, economic and business ties continued to strengthen the foundation of the bilateral relationship.
Japan - Korea: Lost in the Six-Party Talks (PDF)
David C. Kang, Ji-Young Lee
The final quarter of 2007 was eventful and left observers in both Japan and South Korea cautiously optimistic about bilateral relations. Both countries chose new chief executives this fall, and both promised to search for more collaboration and to begin repairing relations. Halting progress on North Korean denuclearization through the Six-Party Talks led to hope that momentum could be sustained, although Japan for the time being has chosen to be supportive but skeptical, and continued its sanctions against the DPRK. Indeed, North Korea’s missed deadline for declaring its nuclear programs was a reminder that progress in relations with North Korea is never straightforward or easy. It is unclear how relations between North Korea and other states in the region will evolve in 2008.
China - Russia: Living with Putin's Unfading Glory and Dream (PDF)
Yu Bin
Succession politics preoccupied both Moscow and Beijing in the last quarter of 2007. The 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October paled in comparison to Putin’s surprising posturing in early December to shape Russian politics beyond 2008. If his "Operation Successor" is implemented, Beijing may well live with Putin’s leadership rather than his legacy for the next 16 years. Meanwhile the two countries continued to interact at global, regional, and bilateral levels. The third Russia-China-India trilateral foreign ministerial meeting was held in late October in China’s northeastern city of Harbin. This was followed by the sixth annual prime ministerial meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in early November in Tashkent. A few days later, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao traveled to Moscow for the 12th Sino-Russian prime ministerial annual meeting.
India - Asia Pacific: 2007 Annual Assessment: Consolidating Friendships and Nuclear Legitimacy (PDF)
Satu Limaye
India’s relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region during 2007 were wide-ranging as New Delhi sought to consolidate and expand ties with both small and large countries. With the U.S., India was on the verge of a landmark agreement on civil nuclear energy cooperation. But there was unfinished business. In Southeast Asia, the failure to conclude an FTA blunted what has been a positive trajectory in relations. With China, India’s relations crawl forward with little progress on fundamental issues such as the border/territorial dispute. With Japan, despite all the excitement, the facts on the ground remain limited. There are some more interesting openings for India in the region such as relations with Australia and South Korea, but they too are somewhat unusual rather than an established pattern. What is undeniable is that India is now a thread in the fabric of Asia. Similarly, despite the failure of the U.S. and India to conclude the civilian nuclear energy deal in 2007, the thickness of U.S.-India relations is unlikely to be diluted, even if it will take a lot of work from both Washington and New Delhi to keep them going.