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Hatoyama Yukio led the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to a landslide victory in the Aug. 30 Lower House election and was elected prime minister after a spirited campaign for change both in the form and substance of policymaking. Exit polls showed that the public had grown weary of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) but had not necessarily embraced the agenda of the coalition government Hatoyama would subsequently form with an eye toward consolidating power in an Upper House election next summer. Though the election centered primarily on domestic policy, Hatoyama began his tenure by outlining foreign policy priorities during visits to the UN in New York and the G20 summit in Pittsburgh less than a week after he took office. The Obama administration emphasized respect and patience as Japan experienced a transition to a non-LDP government for only the second time since 1955. Senior U.S. officials visited Tokyo for consultations soon after the election and prepared for the first meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Hatoyama in New York on Sept. 23. The leaders reaffirmed the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance and set the stage for a visit to Japan by Obama in November. The quarter ended with good atmospherics but also questions about the extent to which Hatoyama would try to implement several campaign pledges – such as renegotiating the realignment plan for U.S. forces on Okinawa – with the potential to strain bilateral ties. Change they might believe in An average approval rating of 20 percent and embarrassing defeats in local elections led Prime Minister Aso Taro to dissolve the Diet on July 21 and schedule a Lower House election for Aug. 30, only a month before the Constitution would have required an election. DPJ President Hatoyama, with the support of former president and master strategist Ozawa Ichiro, unveiled a campaign strategy designed to blame the LDP for a lack of transparency and accountability in government and a failure to revive the Japanese economy. The DPJ vowed in its election manifesto to wrest power from the bureaucracy and expand the role of political leaders in government by assigning 100 parliamentarians to ministerial posts and centralizing budgetary authority in the Cabinet Office to prevent wasteful spending. The economic portfolio derided the LDP’s export-oriented growth model and promoted a boost in consumption that would flow from handouts such as payments to households with children and subsidies to farmers. Other proposals, including plans to eliminate highway tolls and gasoline taxes, also proved popular in an economic downturn and the public mood was captured in one simple campaign slogan: “Change in Government.” The voters clearly endorsed this message as the DPJ won 308 of the 480 seats in the Lower House and ousted the LDP from power. But exit polls suggested the U.S.-Japan Relations 17 October 2009 election was more a referendum on LDP leadership than a firm embrace of DPJ policies. A Yomiuri Shimbun poll published Sept. 1 showed that 46 percent of respondents cited disaffection with the Aso Cabinet as the main reason for the outcome, followed by 37 percent who favored a general change in government, 10 percent with hopes for the DPJ election platform, and 3 percent with expectations of Hatoyama as prime minister. Asahi Shimbun exit polls released the same day found that only 32 percent of respondents believed the DPJ could change Japanese politics. Despite widespread enthusiasm about the prospects for change, the Hatoyama administration would have to deliver results to satisfy a skeptical public. A new coalition Though the Lower House was now firmly under DPJ control, Hatoyama formed a coalition government with two other parties, the leftist Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the anti-reform People’s New Party (PNP), whose help he will need to secure a majority in the Upper House election next summer. A comfortable cushion in both houses would pave the way for an extended period of DPJ rule and Hatoyama had this in mind when he was elected prime minister during a special Diet session on Sept. 16 and awarded Cabinet posts to SDP leader Fukushima Mizuho (minister for Consumer Affairs) and PNP leader Kamei Shizuka (minister for Financial Services and Postal Reform). Other key appointments included Okada Katsuya (who finished second behind Hatoyama in the race to succeed Ozawa as DPJ president last May) as foreign minister; Fujii Hirohisa, a former Finance Ministry bureaucrat, as finance minister; and Kitazawa Toshimi, a low-profile member of the Upper House, as defense minister. Managing this coalition will prove challenging for Hatoyama as the DPJ itself has yet to achieve consensus on central policy objectives and will then have to reconcile differences with the SDP and PNP. This dilemma is most evident with respect to the U.S.-Japan relationship in that the SDP and PNP have argued vociferously in favor of renegotiating the realignment plan for U.S. Marines on Okinawa and revising the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) for U.S. forces in Japan. Okada Katsuya managed to soften language on those issues in a coalition agreement between the three parties but the matter appeared unresolved. Kamei also demonstrated the potential for internal strife over economic issues when he declared on Sept. 17 that the Hatoyama administration would consider a three-year moratorium on loan payments by small- and medium-sized businesses, a position Finance Minister Fujii implied was not endorsed by the full Cabinet. Prime Minister Hatoyama attempted to realize his vision for transparency and accountability by establishing a National Strategy Bureau (kokka senryaku kyoku) in the Cabinet Office, to be run by former DPJ leader Kan Naoto, which would centralize the policymaking process and check the power of bureaucrats (an objective supported by 87.5 percent of respondents to a Fujisankei poll published Sept. 7). This experiment would be tested early on as the Cabinet was tasked with redrafting a government budget for fiscal year 2010 by mid-October in preparation for a special Diet session later this fall. Hatoyama also sent a signal to the bureaucracy by eliminating the administrative vice minister coordination meetings (jimujikan kaigi) where bureaucrats from each ministry would discuss interagency issues without involving political leaders. (This initiative is reminiscent of recent LDP efforts, such as the creation of a U.S.-style National Security Council, but is focused on economic rather than security issues.) U.S.-Japan Relations 18 October 2009 Hatoyama entered office with an approval rating above 70 percent but will likely face intense scrutiny during the budget debate in the Diet and could be questioned about a funding scandal that surfaced back in June. The last three LDP prime ministers also started off with support over 70 percent before crashing in the polls and resigning a year later. The opposition LDP elected Tanigaki Sadakazu to lead the charge as president and he called on veteran Diet Whip Oshima Tadamori to serve as secretary general. This was a blow to younger LDP politicians who had hoped for generational change and to hawks and economic reformers who wanted to revive Koizumi’s agenda. Tanigaki’s most distinguishing weapon is his expertise on fiscal matters, which he will use to pressure the DPJ on their ambitious spending plans. Meanwhile, Oshima will go head-to-head against Ozawa Ichiro, whom Hatoyama tapped to engineer another victory in next summer’s Upper House election. Foreign and defense policy Only five of the 55 policy initiatives outlined in the DPJ election platform focused on foreign affairs but two of them generated headlines in a bilateral context. The first was promotion of an “East Asian Community” – not a new idea in Japanese foreign policy, but one that Hatoyama appeared to present in an article in the New York Times as a way to counterbalance U.S. influence on Japan. The article cited the decline of U.S. power, lamented the ills of U.S.-style capitalism, and spoke of the need for Japan to strengthen bonds in Asia as a means of securing its political and economic independence as a nation positioned between the U.S. and China. There was one reference to the importance of the U.S.-Japan relationship but it seemed parenthetical in what the Western media likely concluded was an explanation of the DPJ’s diplomatic agenda. Hatoyama was pressed by the media and forced to state that his essay was not anti-American, and what began as a benign statement about outreach in Asia ended up as a confusing signal about Hatoyama’s views on the U.S.-Japan alliance. (Japanese media reports suggested there was confusion about a request from a U.S. syndication company to publish excerpts of the essay and that the broad dissemination of the summary came as a surprise.) The second initiative dealt directly with the bilateral relationship and included the phrase “close and equal alliance” to describe the DPJ’s approach to relations with Washington. The term “equal” is undefined but widely interpreted as a greater willingness to express grievances and play a less “subservient” role in the alliance. Several campaign pledges captured this dynamic including: ending the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) refueling mission in the Indian Ocean; renegotiating bilateral agreements on the realignment of Marines on Okinawa; revising the SOFA governing U.S. forces in Japan; and declassifying secret documents related to U.S. nuclear weapons policy in Japan from the 1950s and 1960s. The language in the election platform said only that the party would work toward realizing these goals but a separately published “Index” describing these policies in greater detail promised to deliver on these demands, implying a lack of internal consensus on bilateral security issues. Foreign Minister Okada took the lead in implementing this agenda upon taking office. He immediately called for an investigation into the classified documents and also expressed his intention to address the relocation of U.S. bases in Okinawa and settle the government’s approach to Afghanistan during the first 100 days of the administration. Okada stated that Japan would not “simply” withdraw from the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, which invited U.S.-Japan Relations 19 October 2009 media speculation as to whether the mission might be continued in a different form or if the government was contemplating other alternatives. Defense Minister Kitazawa also chimed in on Afghanistan and Okinawa, declaring during his first press conference that the government would not extend the special measures law authorizing the refueling mission and noting that the government would discuss Okinawa “based on a realistic view of the situation.” On Sept. 26 Kitazawa told the media during a trip to Okinawa that relocating U.S. bases would be difficult and could take a long time, again hinting at a softening of the government’s position. The transition to forming a government did little to encourage a consensus on how best to characterize an equal alliance in policy terms. Prime Minister Hatoyama made his diplomatic debut at the United Nations in New York in late September and delivered three addresses articulating central foreign policy themes. On Sept. 22 he addressed the UN Summit on Climate Change and shared his government’s pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and also proposed a “Hatoyama Initiative” to bridge the gap between the developed and developing worlds on climate change issues. Hatoyama also made a statement during the UN Security Council summit on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament and reiterated Japan’s commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Finally, in a speech to the UN General Assembly, Hatoyama summarized five pillars of his foreign policy agenda: global economic recovery; climate change; nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation; peace building, development, and poverty alleviation; and building an East Asian Community. Bilateral consultations President Obama made a congratulatory phone call to Prime Minister Hatoyama on Sept. 2 and set a positive tone for their first encounter three weeks later. Senior U.S. officials including Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell stressed patience during the transition and expressed a willingness to listen to the concerns of the new government. Campbell visited Tokyo just after Hatoyama took office to prepare for senior-level meetings at the UN. Secretary of State Clinton and Foreign Minister Okada met on Sept. 21 and discussed the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance, Japan’s support for Afghanistan, the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan, and North Korea. (The two also joined Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith for the fourth trilateral strategic dialogue.) President Obama covered a similar agenda with Prime Minister Hatoyama on Sept. 23 and agreed to visit Japan in November. Hatoyama is counting on a good personal relationship with Obama to jump-start the relationship and came away satisfied with this first set of meetings. The positive atmospherics are attributable to the fact that the two governments have yet to get into detail on the issues that could complicate the relationship. Statements in September by the State Department and Pentagon spokespersons regarding Okinawa and Afghanistan, respectively – declining to renegotiate the Okinawa agreement and encouraging Japan to extend the Indian Ocean refueling mission – suggest that private consultations in advance of Obama’s trip to Japan could prove contentious. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg led an interagency delegation to Japan at the end of the quarter. U.S.-Japan Relations 20 October 2009 A busy fourth quarter The DPJ-LDP rivalry could heat up with by-elections in Kanagawa and Shizuoka Prefectures scheduled for Oct. 25. Political fireworks will also be on display during a special session of the Diet to pass the government’s first budget. On the bilateral front, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates could visit Japan in October, followed by the Obama-Hatoyama summit. Multilateral summitry will also feature prominently next quarter with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Singapore in mid-November and the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in mid-December. Japan’s leadership role in global nonproliferation efforts will be further amplified when Amano Yukiya takes office as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Dec 1.