CIAO DATE: 06/2014
Volume: 13, Issue: 2
Spring 2014
Conditionality and Compliance: The Shaky Dimensions of NATO Influence (The Georgian Case) (PDF)
Shalva Dzebisashvili
Introduction: The Puzzle It is no secret that NATO exerts global influence, and is an organization without which the international security architecture would be difficult to imagine. Its capacity to exert influence ranges from the very material dimension of military power to the elusive and intangible effects of functional professionalization. Its unifying power was recognized long before the fall of the Berlin Wall, motivating Karl Deutsch to assign to it the quality of the “Community” in the North Atlantic area.[1] The paradigm of the Cold War heavily influenced the way scholarship evaluated the Alliance. Despite numerous and valuable attempts, the majority of academic contributions to the study of NATO remained policy-driven. The discussion was subsumed by broader regional security studies and international relations scholarship that repeatedly brought up the question of the Alliance’s organizational purpose and durability, leaving other significant questions unexamined.[2] This article will attempt to address the existing scholarly deficit by focusing on a particular aspect of NATO analysis: the Alliance’s capacity to influence aspirant countries’ policy making (formulation and implementation) in the defense area and, by doing that, to ensure compliance with commonly agreed norms and standards.
Solving the Syrian Knot: Dynamics within the UN Security Council and Challenges to its Effectiveness (PDF)
Esmira Jafarova
Introduction This article intends to highlight the dynamics within the UN Security Council [1] (UNSC) with regard to the events in the Syrian Arab Republic that have unfolded in the wake of the so-called “Arab Spring” and perturbed the entire region of the Middle East. What had begun as peaceful demonstrations against the incumbent leadership of the country very quickly transformed into the violent conflict that has raged for about three years. As a primary world body fulfilling the watchdog functions over the protection of international peace and security, the UNSC was overwhelmed by the highly dynamic nature of the situation on the ground, and was embroiled in intensive deliberations on the ways to solve the Syrian crisis. Dynamics within the Security Council involved great deal of twists and turns that were mostly conditioned by internal factors. During the initial phase of the conflict, the Council actively searched for paths out of the conflict, and worked in unison with its Joint Special Envoy Kofi Annan on a variety of options to end the military hostilities. However, subsequent events brought to the fore a set of irreconcilable divisions within the Council that undermined its unity and alienated the Joint Special Envoy, who cited the lack of support from the Council as the primary reason for his resignation. Further deterioration of the security situation in Syria and the dramatic rise in the number of human casualties threw the Council into prolonged discussions on solving the crisis. But these new discussions did not render the Council able to overcome its internal divisions that perpetuated its inability to speak with a unified voice and take a stronger stance toward conflict resolution. This article will first seek to highlight the course of events in Syria, in chronological order; these events will then be employed in the analysis of factors that influenced the Council’s ability to effectively handle the Syrian crisis. The analysis will suggest that the existing institutional challenges and actors’ interests remain the primary obstacles to the Council’s ability to demonstrate a unified stance and take stronger action via application of its potent policy instruments, such as Chapter VII of the UN Charter. For a clearer perception of the power politics and overall atmosphere of decision making within the Security Council vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis, comparisons will also be made to the Council’s actions on the Libyan and Yemeni cases. Without offering any affirmative solutions as to whether the employment of Chapter VII measures could have delivered an effective solution to the Syrian crisis, the essay will conclude that the main reason for the relative success of the Security Council in the Libyan and Yemeni cases when compared to its failure in the Syrian instance was the actual implementation of the use of force or a threat to effectuate the Chapter VII measures. As the conflict lingers on, future developments and analysis of the Security Council’s actions should definitely remain among the priority areas for future research.
David Tier
Our world is on a trajectory leading to a point where terrorists will eventually acquire a nuclear weapon.[1] It is only a matter of time.[2] After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States recognized the lack of effectiveness of its previous intelligence and military efforts in deterring terrorists and sought an alternate way to defuse the radical Islamist threat.[3] By continuing to advocate the use of military force in Iraq after weapons of mass destruction were not found, the U.S. pursued a strategy in line with the idealist school of thought by attempting to plant a democracy in the heart of the Middle East.[4] Iraq became the centerpiece of the United States’ ambitions to stop the region from exporting violence and terror, and attempted to transform it into a place of progress and peace.[5] This effort was ambitious indeed, and many argued that these goals were beyond the United States’ ability to achieve. However, this strategy offered a possible solution to the endless cycle of violence across the Middle East and Africa and its continuing threat to U.S. national security. The current administration, in contrast, announced last year a “rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific region,” ostensibly to counter the growing strength of China’s military power.[6] Like an ostrich sticking its head in the sand, this shift pivots the U.S. away from its true threat and increases the peril its citizens will face. The United States should focus its efforts on supporting democratization in troubled regions, and policy makers must counter those who criticize this strategy, including military-industrial complex advocates of the “pivot.”
Defense Policy and Reforms in Bulgaria since the End of the Cold War: A Critical Analysis. (PDF)
Gerogi Tzvetkov
Introduction After the disintegration of the communist system in Eastern Europe the former communist countries had to make an unprecedented transition to a “normal” society. Having been diverted from their natural path of development, with limited private property and political rights, these countries had to once again begin following the European path of development. Transforming the defense sectors in these societies was a crucial challenge. Yet there were complications in the sphere of defense transformation because of the overlapping of three transitions. The first was the shift from armies established as support for the communist regime to professional military organizations subject to civilian control.[1] The second was the transition from mass conventional armies that were established to fight in World War III, which was never waged, to militaries that were relatively limited in their number of troops, the main purpose of which is to participate in a broad spectrum of operations beyond national boundaries. The third transition was that from a reliance on large quantities of Soviet equipment—most of it relatively cheap and easy to produce and maintain—to advanced, high-quality (and expensive) Western equipment. These transitions took place in a context of economic crises (of different magnitude) caused by the clash between planned economies and free market realities, when there were still groups in society that were not willing to give up the communist system easily. Bulgaria was one of the states that faced the steepest challenges. The supporters of the communist regime were many and they were strong. There were, however, objective limitations to Bulgaria’s transition as well – the economy was not competitive enough, and the country had to cope with the burden of significant loans. In the military sphere, an additional challenge was what many considered as Bulgaria’s “natural” distrust for Turkey, along with strong pro-Russian affiliations. Despite that, Bulgaria has become part of the European Union, and its armed forces are constantly increasing their preparedness to operate jointly with the armies of NATO and the EU member states. Even though Bulgaria is not the best example of how defense transformation should be carried out, its experience can be a valuable source of lessons for other states facing similar challenges.
The Future of the Sinai Peninsula (PDF)
Ruben Tuitel
Introduction The Sinai Peninsula has been a center of conflict for many years, starting with the first Arab-Israeli war in 1948. After Israel and Egypt signed the Camp David Accords in 1978, it became a peaceful region, strongly controlled by the military during Hosni Mubarak’s rule in Cairo. Now, after several years of non-violence, the Sinai Peninsula is once again the center of a complicated conflict. Heavy protests across Egypt in 2011 forced Hosni Mubarak to step down from the presidency, creating a security vacuum in the Sinai that allowed radical Islamists to almost freely operate in the region. During the months that followed, insurgent groups grew in number, recruiting frustrated Bedouin who have been neglected by the Egyptian government for years. It seems that the Sinai continues to be an area of conflict, but what about the future? Is it possible to achieve peace and stability in this region? This article describes and analyzes the past and present of the Sinai Peninsula, and projects three future scenarios. The first part will describe past conflicts in order to give an overview of what happened in the Sinai over the past sixty years, starting with the first Arab-Israeli war in 1948 and extending to the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt in 1979 and beyond. The second part will discuss recent and current events beginning with the Arab Spring through the time of this article’s writing (December 2013). Then, the final section will present three possible future scenarios based on past and present events.
The Models of Sovereignty in the South Caucasus (PDF)
Gayane Novikova
Introduction Over the last five to six years we have witnessed dramatic changes in the international security environment – changes that have directly influenced developments in the South Caucasus. Among the most significant changes are the world economic crisis, the Arab awakening, and the turbulence and civil wars all over North Africa and the Middle East. There is also a growing number of secessionist movements, indeed even in the prosperous parts of Europe: Scotland and the Flemish region will hold referenda on independence from Great Britain and Belgium, respectively; separatist trends are under way in Catalonia and in the Basque country in Spain, as well as in Quebec in Canada. Great Britain is debating abandonment of its EU membership. It is not by chance that we are also witnessing the appearance of several internationally recognized sovereign states, even though they are either essentially failed states or very weak. There is also a group of state entities that can be considered as conflict-ridden exceptions. Among them are the semi-recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. In many ways these developments are related to the issue of state sovereignty. The pillars of this concept are sovereignty over a territory and a population, over decision-making in governance, as well as over the state’s interaction with other states and international organizations. The notion of sovereignty offers a framework for the state’s behavior and for its population generally. It influences directly its degree of security, stability, and prosperity. In accordance with international law and the UN Charter, all states are equal. Despite this ideal, a given state’s level of political, economic, and social development defines its degree of sovereignty and its role in international affairs. However, the sovereign state per se must meet two criteria: self-rule and self-protection. The second criterion is easier to implement, while the first is almost impossible to put into practice in a rapidly globalizing world.[1] A further important measurement is a state’s stage of democratization.
Afghanistan 2001–2014: The Enduring Literature? (PDF)
Peter Foot
Do we have a problem with book publishers? Are we getting a reliable supply of material covering the ongoing war in Afghanistan – this far-too-long, post-9/11 conflict? That there are lots of books is not in doubt – but do they help chart a course for the future? Do they locate the conflict in ways that assist in defining its uniqueness from, or its commonality with, other experiences of violence? How might the available published work assist in the post-2014 phase of Afghanistan’s development and the necessary engagement of the international community—define that as you will—in that country’s future? The best of them appeared around 2011: ten years too late for decision makers, the result of a decade of reflection for the rest of us. Let us step back a bit. The 1982 Falklands War generated a great deal of literature, but one among the very best books about it was written to mark the war’s thirtieth anniversary. Ian Gardiner’s The Yompers: With 45 Commando in the Falklands War, despite its combat-style title, is a wonderful series of insights into the nature of command, at every level: political context, experience of the “ordinary” soldier, mental and emotional resilience, blue-on-blue casualties (to speak of just the things one remembers without opening the book again).[1] What is interesting is that this book, had it been “guided” by some of the more enthusiastic literary agents out there, might easily have been limited to resembling the “Andy McNab” kind of account: big on sales, but limited in value. Contrast that to the blurb for Sgt. David Bellavia’s recounting of his war in Iraq, House to House: An Epic Memoir of War: “Blood flows over my left hand and I lose my grip on his hair. His head snaps back against the floor. In an instant, his fists are pummeling me. I rock from his counterblows. He lands one on my injured jaw and the pain nearly blinds me. He connects with my nose, and blood and snot pour down my throat.” [2]