CIAO DATE: 09/2012
Volume: 11, Issue: 1
Winter 2011
Arctic Sustainability: The Predicament of Energy and Environmental Security (PDF)
Erica M. Dingman
Acquisition of Arctic hydrocarbon deposits is a strategic priority of Arctic states and numerous non-Arctic states alike. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the area north of the Arctic Circle holds 13 percent of undiscovered global oil reserves and 30 percent of undiscovered gas reserves, with the expectation that 84 percent of these reserves will be found offshore. Increasing global demand for energy, attributed primarily to population and income growth, alongside technical advancements and financial incentives will likely accelerate the rate at which stakeholders seek out these presumed Arctic hydrocarbons.
Fergana as FATA? Central Asia after 2014 – Outcomes and Strategic Options (PDF)
Ted Donnelly
After more than a decade at war, the world’s most powerful military withdrew its combat forces from Afghanistan. Having variously pursued counterinsurgency and counterterrorism strategies, the invading force had not been victorious, but neither had it been defeated. The superpower left behind a friendly Afghan government and reasonably well-trained and well-equipped Afghan security forces. It also left behind insurgents, including not only local Afghans but also foreign Islamists, whose capabilities had been disrupted and degraded but not defeated. The superpower continued to support its Afghan government allies, rendering financial support, military training, and technical assistance to address the insurgency. However, after two years, new political and fiscal realities forced the superpower to cease its support. Afghanistan descended into civil war, in which Islamic extremists prevailed. In return for their support, the new Islamist government repaid its foreign jihadist allies with safe haven, which they used to train and plan attacks against the United States, among others. They also destabilized Afghanistan’s neighbors, creating conditions in which violent extremism thrived. To the north of Afghanistan, violent extremist organizations focused their attention on the Fergana Valley, a region that lies at the heart of Central Asia and is shared by three states.
Strategic Thinking about Future Security (PDF)
Marian Kozub
The reality that we face at the beginning of the second decade of the twenty-first century renders security issues, and in particular the ways of providing security, central to international attention, both in its present and future aspects. The reasons for this centrality are not only the revolutionary changes in science and technology, but also perhaps even more importantly the characteristics of the already diagnosed and existing threats and predicted challenges for the global security environment for which we have not yet found sufficient responses. This essay focuses on the notion of challenges and opportunities created by the world in transition that we undoubtedly face, instead of relying on the “language of threats” and the responsive, symptomatic approach towards them that has characterized the discourse of the strategic community in the past. Discussing a new security environment requires a new set of terms.
NATO's Cooperation with Others: A Comprehensive Challenge (PDF)
Agata Szydelko
What defines NATO when it is compared to the United Nations and the European Union? Is NATO an “institution of doing” (task-oriented), or an “institution of being” (identity-based)? While trying to define the role and reasons for NATO’s existence in comparison to the United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU) and trying to answer whether NATO is an identity-based or task-oriented institution, it is worthwhile to reach out to the sources and find out when and why these three international institutions were established in the first place and what is the primary driver of their decision making.
Assessing the Arab Spring in Libya and Syria: A Compilation of Varying Statements from Key Actors (PDF)
Charles Simpson
The situations in Syria in February 2012 and in Libya in 2011 have provided the two most recent case studies in assessing a wide variety of international topics including NATO’s future role in global security, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) as a normative guide, the role of the League of Arab States (LAS) in the post-Arab Spring world, and the role of emerging powers on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Given the rapid proliferation of academic and professional examinations of the 2011 Libya and 2012 Syria cases, there appears a need for a compilation of the varying policies, resolutions, actions, and statements made by all relevant actors in both scenarios. The table below attempts to provide such a compilation in a concise and clearly structured format.
Recent Trends in Security and Stability in the South Caucasus (PDF)
Richard Giragosian, Sergey Minasyan
After twenty years of independence, the three counties of the South Caucasus-Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia-continue to struggle with a daunting set of challenges. In light of several unresolved conflicts and profound deficiencies in efforts directed at democratic and economic reform, the South Caucasus continues to be a "region at risk." As if this rather bleak landscape was not enough, three more recent trends have emerged to further threaten the region's security and stability. The first trend, and one that is likely to have the most profound effects over the long term, is evident in a subtle shift in the already delicate balance of power in the region, driven largely by a steady surge in Azerbaijani defense spending and exacerbated by a lack of progress in the mediation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Since the 1994 ceasefire that resulted in the suspension of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh (but that did not definitively end them), this unresolved or "frozen" conflict has been subject to an international mediation effort conducted by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) so-called Minsk Group. This tripartite body co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States seeks to engage and prod the parties to the conflict toward a negotiated resolution of the conflict.
The Evolution of Azerbaijani Identity and the Prospects of Secessionism in Iranian Azerbaijan (PDF)
Emil Souleimanov
Conventional wisdom has it that Azerbaijanis, the largest ethnic minority in Iran, have historically tended to identify themselves with notions of Iranian statehood and Shiite religion rather than ethnic nationalism, a fact that has made them loyal subjects of Persian states. Yet recent years have shown a considerable growth of their Azerbaijani Turkic self-consciousness as part of their effort to achieve ethno-linguistic emancipation, an emancipation sometimes bordering on separatism and irredentism. Recent developments over the Tabriz-based Tractor Sazi football club (TSFC) and Lake Urmia have provided a further impetus to such developments that offer the potential to endanger the territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This article is an attempt to highlight the evolution of self-consciousness of Iranian Azerbaijanis in recent decades, shedding light on the key issues that have caused this evolution with the aim of exploring the prospects of Azerbaijani secessionism or anti-regime sentiments in the strategically important northwest region of Iran inhabited by ethnic Azerbaijanis.
GAO Report on Arctic Capabilities (PDF)
DOD Addressed Many Specified Reporting Elements in Its 2011 Arctic Report but Should Take Steps to Meet Near- and Long-term Needs