CIAO DATE: 12/2008
Volume: 9, Issue: 2
Fall 2008
The Bush Administration's Legacy (PDF)
Condoleezza Rice
What will be the legacy of the Bush administration? That is a question that will surely occupy historians for decades to come, and it will likely be the topic of many doctoral dissertations—some of which I imagine I will even supervise upon returning to Stanford on January 20, 2009. Still, we can say a few things about this question now.
Striking Balance on National Defense (PDF)
Mike Mullen
We have been raised in this country to believe that the defense of our vital national interests is largely the province of the Pentagon. National security, the theory goes, is for the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force to figure out. And in the wake of World War II and throughout much of the Cold War, that was a pretty safe assumption.
Not anymore.
National defense today must be considered by every American citizen a truly national concern. Indeed it should be considered an international concern for we are surely more tied to our neighbors in the need for greater security than we even dare to imagine. As the Secretary of Defense recently said to an audience in Oxford, England, "Today we face a set of global security challenges unprecedented in complexity and scope."
They are challenges that call for a truly balanced way of looking at national defense. There must be balance in terms of our approach, balance in terms of our capabilities, and balance in the way we support our troops and their families.
The World Institute for Nuclear Security (PDF)
Sam Nunn
In the last 60 years, the world has developed many beneficial uses for nuclear energy—from generating electricity, to protecting water resources, to increasing crop yields and fighting diseases. But we all know that our continued ability to enjoy the beneficial uses of the atom depends on our corresponding ability to prevent the destructive use of the atom.
The Global Food Crisis and Beyond (PDF)
Jacques Diouf, PhD
In recent weeks, the focus of international attention shifted from the plight of the poor and hungry to the financial and economic meltdown threatening the world’s rich countries.
But this should not divert the international community from the priority of resolving the continuing global food security crisis caused by soaring food prices in 2007- 2008. The situation remains profound and requires an immediate, comprehensive, coherent and coordinated global response.
Last year, mainly because of rising food prices, 75 million people tumbled below the breadline and millions more have probably joined them in 2008. This means that there could be now nearly one billion people in the world suffering from chronic hunger—one in every six human beings.
It also means that we are moving away from the first of the international community’s Millennium Development Goals, which was to halve, by 2015, the proportion of people suffering from hunger. Unless urgent and resolute action is taken, that commitment seems destined to remain another empty promise, just like the now almost forgotten 1974 World Food Conference undertaking that within a decade no child would go to bed hungry.
Obviously, this does little for the credibility of the international community. But this is no time for finger-pointing or recrimination. It is instead time to take the steps required to honor the promises of the past to meet the challenges of the future and to seize the opportunities that the present may offer.
Changing Patterns of Flight: Refugees in the 21st Century (PDF)
Samuel M. Witten
This summer I visited Somali refugees at Dadaab camp in Kenya. Conditions were rough, and familiar from the news coverage we have all seen: people lined up for food rations in the blistering heat; very rudimentary housing, health clinics and latrines; and an atmosphere pervading the camp that had components of both restlessness and relief at finding safe haven.
But these classic, even iconic images of refugees, and the relief they receive from international donors, belie the way refugee issues are changing around the world. International migration has soared, and not just from poor countries to wealthier ones. The Internet and other advances have made communication and travel easier for all sorts of people. Without a Cold War balance of power, the nature of conflict has changed and refugee flows have grown increasingly diverse and complex. As we confront threats of terrorism around the world, distinguishing those who would harm us from those who need our protection has become crucial.
Continuing Suffering in Sudan and the US Government Response (PDF)
Richard S. Williamson
The United States has made great efforts to encourage the full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and to end the unconscionable humanitarian suffering in Darfur. For the past eight years, President Bush has led the work of the US government on Sudan, through a massive humanitarian operation, an integrated development program, sustained and vigorous support for peacekeeping, and significant diplomatic efforts. Early in the administration, Senator John Danforth, whom President Bush empowered as his special envoy in 2001, used great creativity, commitment, and skill in helping to secure the groundbreaking signing in 2005 of the CPA. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick later devoted his efforts and attention to the crisis in Darfur, culminating in the signing of the Darfur Peace Agreement, and most recently, Special Envoy Andrew Natsios worked diligently through frequent travel to the region and coordination with international partners to bring relief to the people of Sudan.
Despite the successes of these diplomatic efforts and the tireless work of countless individuals in Washington and on the ground in Sudan, however, the story of mayhem, murder, and misery tragically continues for too many Sudanese. In an effort to alleviate the suffering of the people of Sudan and contribute to the pursuit of a democratic, peaceful, and prosperous Sudan, the policy of the US government is focused on three main areas. First, the United States is committed to the success of the CPA. Implementation of the CPA is in danger. The conduct of the census, a major milestone in the CPA, showed not only the stresses between the north and south, but also the marginalization of the people of Darfur from the CPA process. Preparations for elections are woefully behind schedule and could put the 2011 referendum at risk. In Abyei, violence has displaced more than 50,000 innocent people, the parties have yet to agree to a resolution on the boundaries of the Abyei area, and oil revenue sharing—an issue of crucial importance not only during the interim period, but also after 2011—continues to be a challenge. The US government is committed to protecting the CPA in these and other areas to ensure that the people of Sudan do not face the tragedy of another civil war.
Second, the United States is committed to ending the suffering of the people of Darfur, who—four years after President Bush called the world’s attention to the genocide taking place—continue to suffer. The Government of Sudan (GOS) has announced a new commitment to move forward on a lasting peace in Darfur, but this has been followed by an attack on one of the largest camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and a bombing campaign in North Darfur. The government’s continued rhetoric clearly is not being translated into progress on the ground.
Third, additional complexities have emerged following recent developments in the International Criminal Court (ICC). Sudan’s nine neighbors are recalibrating their interests in anticipation of the possible issuance by the Court of an arrest warrant against President Bashir, while political actors and civil society inside Sudan similarly are weighing their options and reconsidering their positions. The ICC action adds a new dimension to the already difficult questions of how to alleviate the humanitarian suffering of the people of Darfur and how to ensure implementation of the CPA and peace between north and south. Nonetheless, only progress that is tangible, not promises, will guide the position of the United States.
Sue M. Cobb
This short paper focuses on a recent study done by The World Bank entitled, “Where is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century.” The World Bank’s self-styled ‘millennium capital assessment’ was done by the environmental economics department of the Bank with an eye toward asset management and sustainable development. I believe the study has serious implications for policymakers in areas from sustainable development to tax policy to education to immigration and beyond.
Intuitively, anecdotally, and empirically, we all know that a well-educated population and a stable investment-friendly environment produce greater national wealth than possible in undereducated and unstable societies. Thus national policy discussions as well as appropriation debates focus on allocation of resources to achieve the desired well educated populace and stable environment. But what tools are available to policymakers to buttress analysis of allocation of resources?
What Freedom Means (PDF)
Carolina Barco
"Freedom is indivisible, and when one man is enslaved, all are not free." This important and enduring quote of President John F. Kennedy represents the will and commitment to individual freedom by the Government of Colombia.
Just a few months ago, 15 hostages held captive by the terrorist group known as the FARC1 were rescued in the jungles of Colombia. While this news was greeted with worldwide jubilation, we know our job is not completed, as we remain devoted to achieving the freedom of those who remain in the FARC’s unjust and inhumane captivity.
For many in other nations, the dramatic rescue was seen as a single, isolated action. For Colombians, however, it is a remarkable milestone and the symbol of a sustainable transformation the country has eagerly embraced. The rescue, engineered and executed flawlessly by the Colombian Army, with the leadership and commitment of the President and the Minister of Defense, was largely made possible through a process that began in 2002.
Cuba and Raúl's Reforms: Power Grab, Public Relations or Change? (PDF)
Christopher Sabatini
Since formally acceding to the presidency on February 24, 2008, Cuban President Raúl Castro has launched a menu of reforms that, by their contrast to the stated positions of his brother, Fidel Castro, have sparked hope that a new era of change has begun in Cuba. Don’t hold your breath. The reforms—from the loosening of agricultural markets, to greater freedom to purchase electronic equipment (including cell phones)—represent little more than an effort to relieve some pressures inside Cuba and to stoke international pressure for a reevaluation of US policy.
In terms of the structure of decision-making and economic realities (both of purchasing power of common Cubans and the real distribution of economic and political power in Cuba) these are not the beginnings of the political opening that many—except the most romantically inclined—were hoping for. Unfortunately, in the stale, traditional debate over Cuba, Raúl’s so-called reforms are getting wrapped around the traditional axel of policy toward Cuba: the US embargo. That is a profound mistake, both in terms of understanding what is actually occurring in Cuba and the realities (and constraints) of the embargo to promote constructive engagement in genuine democratic change.
The United States and Costa Rica: An Enduring Partnership for Sustainable Development (PDF)
Peter E. Cianchette
United by a shared commitment to democracy, free enterprise, and sustainable development, the United States and Costa Rica have long enjoyed a good, mutually beneficial relationship. Building on Costa Rica’s well-deserved reputation as a stable democracy committed to peace, social progress, and environmental conservation, President Oscar Arias has embarked on a “Peace with Nature” agenda aiming to make Costa Rica become Latin America’s first fully developed, carbonneutral country by 2021. However, Costa Rica also faces security threats arising from increased domestic and transnational crime, as well as threats to its prospects for a greener, more prosperous future resulting from persistent weaknesses in the country’s businessenabling environment and key infrastructure, such as water, wastewater, energy, and transportation systems.
Uribe to the Rescue (PDF)
Otto Reich
When Álvaro Uribe was sworn in as President of Colombia in August 2002, the question in the minds of US policymakers was when, not whether, the Colombian government would fall into the hands of Marxist terrorists or right-wing paramilitaries. Some wondered if a military coup would come first. Terrorists operated with so little constraint that Uribe took the oath of office with bombs and rockets detonating outside the building he stood in, killing 19 civilians and injuring 60 more.
American Diplomacy and the Foreign Language Challenge (PDF)
Ruth A. Whiteside
It’s an exciting—and challenging—time to be a diplomat. America’s diplomats are reaching out to local populations as never before, and are working to support economic prosperity and development in countries throughout the world. For every challenge, the key to outreach, understanding and impact is the ability to speak directly to people in their own language and the capability to understand local perspectives. In this important time, this crucial capacity to communicate and connect empowers US diplomats to better address the world’s critical challenges.
Secretary of State Rice has made it a priority for all diplomats overseas to conduct outreach to communities and populations that are not our “traditional” points of contact— youth, people living outside the major cities, and key influencers in a society. She directed the movement of over 100 positions to key areas where she wanted to increase the US presence. She hoped to bolster US impact and influence in countries like China and India, and throughout the Middle East, South Asia and elsewhere.
Powering the Future Together: What America Can Learn from a Scandinavian Friend (PDF)
James P. Cain
The challenges of energy availability and climate change loom ever larger for the international community, with our nation’s security and the world’s environment hanging in the balance. As diplomats, we must help our nation and its partners find solutions to these challenges. Part of our job is to assume the bullypulpit and enlighten others of the many things America is already doing in these areas, to overcome the global impression that America is not doing its part. But my time in Europe has convinced me that an even greater use of our diplomatic time and resources is to seek out and support innovation, collaboration and partnership between America and those abroad who are pioneering ways to lower greenhouse gas emissions, develop alternative energy resources, and increase energy efficiency.
Lack of Transparency in Hungary: A Persistent Cold War Legacy (PDF)
April H. Foley
Hungary is a medium sized European country of approximately ten million people that shares with its Central European neighbors a common legacy of more than four decades of Soviet domination. Although a fully functioning democracy for nearly 20 years now, a member of NATO since 1999 and the European Union since 2004, Hungary still suffers from the heritage of communism. While the physical damage of this era has been largely eliminated, the less visible but longer lasting effects of the totalitarian period of Hungarian history persist in plaguing the economic and political life of the country to which I arrived in August 2006.
Lithuania 2008: A Success Story (PDF)
Thomas P. Melady, Ph.D., Margaret B. Melady, Ph.D.
We revisited Lithuania this summer, 15 years after our first visit. We met leaders in both the public and private sectors and toured the entire country. From communications to living standards, the change has been remarkable. Lithuania in 2008 is a success story.
In 1993, we went to Lithuania under the sponsorship of the International Executive Service Corps (IESC), a nongovernmental organization that promotes private enterprise development around the world. Ambassador Melady advised the Rector of Kaunas University of Technology on the modernization of the senior educational administration of the university. Dr. Margaret Melady conducted a seminar on educational and community affairs for aspiring teachers. During our month’s stay in Kaunas, we observed a population that was just beginning to emerge from its Soviet-dominated past. The city was drab and dreary with few restaurants and cafés, most of which offered only a few selections. Buildings were in need of repair. Kaunas University of Technology was the exception. University leaders and department chairs were thinking of the future, eager to introduce reforms that would benefit students in their newly-independent country.
Walking through Kaunas in 2008, we admired the restored buildings, the bustling shops and the new international hotels. The dynamism generated by Kaunas University of Technology has spread to a number of other institutions, including a new private university. Transformation was evident throughout Lithuania.
In this opinion piece, we wish to emphasize the importance of culture on the contemporary situation of the Lithuanian people as we look at the impact of history, geopolitical issues and other matters and offer a forecast for the future.
Israel's "Northern Front": Relations with Syria and Lebanon (PDF)
Barry Rubin
The circumstances in the Middle East, including the situation on Israel’s northern border, can only be understood in the shadow of a startling but extremely grave reality: Israel is the world’s only country whose total destruction is openly sought by other countries and powerful movements.
Montenegro: A Commentary (PDF)
Thomas P. Melady, Ph.D., Timothy R. Stebbins
It has been almost three years since the former Yugoslav republic of Montenegro peacefully attained her independence, becoming the newest fully recognized sovereign state in the world. Though she is still very young and of course has her share of internal problems, Montenegro has made impressive strides towards becoming a fully integrated member of the democratic West.
The referendum of May 21, 2006, which officially severed the union between Serbia and Montenegro, is reflective of the growing and enthusiastic democratic culture of this fledgling nation. Over 85 percent of the total electorate cast their vote. According to BBC News, preliminary election results indicated 230,711 people, 55.5 percent, had voted for independence while 184,954 voters, 44.5 percent, had voted to remain with Serbia.1 The margin was enough to achieve the 55 percent threshold required for validation under the strictures of the European Union, and the results were formally recognized by the European Union and the United Nations Security Council. The referendum was overseen by the International Referendum Observation Mission (IROM), which included observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe and the European Parliament. IROM declared that “overall, the referendum was conducted in line with OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and other international standards for democratic electoral processes.” IROM also stated that during the voting period “there were no reports of restrictions on fundamental civil and political rights.”
Pathways to Prosperity in the Americas (PDF)
Donna E. Shalala, Ph.D., Charles E. Cobb
It is critical that Florida and the United States provide bipartisan support for the 12 Western Hemisphere countries that have formed the alliance called "Pathways to Prosperity in the Americas." These 12 countries that previously have negotiated trade agreements are: Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Peru and the United States.
The presidents of the member countries of Pathways to Prosperity in the Americas met in New York on September 24, 2008, and issued a communiqué announcing that their countries are committed to the following goals: (1) increasing international trade in the Americas that is broadly shared for the benefit of all citizens; (2) promoting regional trade whereby countries in the Americas can better compete with Asia and other regions of the world; (3) expanding regional economic development and job creation; (4) enhancing labor and environmental standards; and (5) engaging the private sector and civil society to advance these objectives through public/private partnerships.
Addenda: Statement (PDF)
Addenda: Officers and Directors of the Council of American Ambassadors (PDF)