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CIAO DATE: 3/99

Kosova and Metohija Migration Issues at the End of the 20th Century

Vladimir Grecic

Institute of International Politics and Economics
Belgrade, FR Yugoslavia

International Studies Association
40th Annual Convention
Washington, D.C.
February 16–20, 1999

Draft only — work in progress

 

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of ethnic relations and population movements in the region of Kosovo and Metohija. This region has been a source of instability. Intensity and forms of instability in various occasions have taken drastic and tragic forms.

These conflicts and insecurity have produced population movements. Settlement of regional ethnic and other conflicts is possible if various forms (political, economic, diplomatic, etc.) are applied to create conditions for development of the peoples. Ethnic tolerance is conducive to a healthy democracy and economy. Tolerance and coexistence are cheaper and more viable than the creation of ethnically pure regions, whether by war or organized migrations. Therefore, the pursuit of self-determination based on ethnicity should be discouraged.

 

 

Introduction

At the end of the 20th century Kosovo and Metohija migration issues in are again very topical. Besides, since 1890s migrations from Kosovo and Metohija have never lost their significance. In this period, the Serbs have been forced to leave Kosovo and Metohija.

Historically speaking, the Serbs had come to the Balkans in late 6th and early 7th century, while Byzantine historians recorded their presence as an organized people in the area as early as in the 9th century.

The name of Kosovo was for the first time recognized in the 12th century as a region settled by the Serbs. The name of Kosovo is derived from the Serbian name for blackbird (“the land of blackbirds”) while the one of Metohija is of Greek origin and denotes a monastery estate (the region where the Serbian Patriarchate and old monasteries are located of which many are under UNESCO protection). Metohija plain embraces the watershed of the Beli Drim. There are very old towns like Prizren, Djakovica and Pech (the Patriarchate of Pech), and monastery Visoki Dechani. Therefore, in the 12th century the present Kosovo and Metohija was the geographical appellation of part of Serbia and was the center of its administrative, religious and economic life. At the time, Prizren was a home to many royal and feudal palaces, the patriarchate, monasteries, and trading establishments. It was for this reason that the decisive battle against the Turkish invader was fought in 1389 at the Kosovo field that lies near Prishtina.

Accordingly, the historical, geographical, cultural, spiritual, and other facts provide an ample evidence that the area of Kosovo and Metohija is the cradle of culture and state of the Serbian peoples. The area of Kosovo and Metohija became a part of the Serbian medieval State (9th to 14th centuries) when numerous churches and monasteries were built, as well as bishoprics (Prizren 1019) and bishopric residences. The Metohija town of Pech became the seat of the Patriarchate between 1346 and 1459 as well as in the period between 1557 and 1766. The most important cultural and historical assets are the monasteries of Grachanica (1321), Bogorodica Ljeviska, the Patriarchate of Pech and Visoki Dechani, as well as the remnants of the medieval towns of Novo Brdo, Zvechan or Dushanov Grad. The treasures of the monasteries of Dechani, Grachanica and the Patriarchate of Pech contain very precious manuscripts and printed books, as well as metal and textile items from the period between 12th and 18th centuries. The Serbian medieval state was at a very high level of development. (Review of International Affairs, 1995).

The Serbs were defeated by the Turks in the Battle of Kosovo in 1389 which ushered in a centuries-long Turkish occupation. This was the time of economic stagnation, islamization, migrations of the Serbs and settlement of the Turks and Albanians.

After five centuries of the Turkish rule (until the First Balkan War of 1912), Kosovo and Metohija was reunited to Serbia. During the World War Two, in the 1941–1945 period, Kosmet was occupied by Italy and Germany. Accordingly, Kosovo and Metohija has always been an integral part of the Serbian state, except at the time of the Ottoman and fascist occupations. The deliberate policy of a forcible expulsion of Serbs kept on being pursued during the German and Italian occupations (Review of International Affairs, 1995).

What began as the “Autonomous Kosovo–Metohija Region” (1947), became the “Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija” (1963), and ended up as the “Socialist Autonomous Province of Kosovo” (1969). These may seem to be insignificant semantics, but under Yugoslav conditions it meant ascending from a faceless geographic entity to a “constituent element of the federation”. The 1969 formula was subsequently used by the Albanians to demand the status of a republic in the Yugoslav Federation, which could in turn lead to the riddance of Serbia's tutelage. This scary possibility dawned upon the Serbian Communists only later, when the statistics on the rapidly growing Albanian majority became alarming (Dragnich, A and Todorovich, S., “The Saga of Kosovo”: INTERNET, http://www.Kosovo. com/Kosovo.html).

 

Population in Kosovo and Metohija

Demographic development in Kosovo and Metohija is one of the most topical and at the same time one of the most delicate questions which researchers are currently facing. The problem is in the lack of real information about population complex. As a matter of fact, the Albanians had boycotted the last population census in Serbia of 31 March 1991. Because of that, their number is based on statistical estimates (Igic, 1995). Besides, previous two censuses in Kosovo and Metohija (1971 and 1981) are under distrust (Federal Secretariat of Information, 1998). According to the newly analyses, the last census, implemented under the supervision of federal and republic bodies, which may be considered objective, is the one of 1961. This census registered 646,605 Albanians (Table 2).

The censuses of 1971 and 1981 were implemented under the supervision of the Kosmet authorities. In the 1981 census, the cooperation of the republic organs was explicitly rejected, with the excuse that the statistical organs of the Republic are not competent for the implementation of the census in Kosovo and Metohija: separatist demonstrations took place during the census.

When interpreting the reproduction of the Albanian population, some comparisons show that the pace of its renewal in Kosovo and Metohija, Macedonia and Albania is similar.

If we take as a parameter the population in Albania, then, according to that base, which has increased, according to the Albanian official data 2.9 times since 1945, we come to the conclusion that the Albanian population in Kosovo and Metohija increased 2.5 times at the most during that same period of time. This is due to the fact that the living standard in Kosovo and Metohija is much higher and women are far more emancipated. If we decrease that figure by a rather great number of members of the Albanian national minority who during a long time period have left Kosovo and Metohija for economic reasons, then one can estimate that there are 917,000 members of the Albanian national minority in Kosovo and Metohija today (Federal Secretariat of Information, 1998). Confirmation of this statement that there are no more than 900,000 Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija can be obtained in the recent census in Macedonia (1994). According to the jointly implemented census in 1991, there were 427,313 Albanians in Macedonia. The Albanian sources several times stated that there are some 600,000 or perhaps even 800,000 Albanians in Macedonia. However, the census in 1994, showed that the number would be somewhere around 484,000. Namely, in order to make it comparable to the previous census, all persons residing abroad were included, although this should not have been done, according to the international criteria.

The effect of the rigorous procedures of control under the supervision of the international community, and strict respect of census rules (according to which two census takers visited all households, one Albanian, and one non-Albanian), was such that the number of registered Albanians was far below the one announced by the Albanians before the census took place. The application of the same principles in Kosovo and Metohija will confirm the assessment presented here.

The Albanian population in Macedonia increased from 197,389 in 1948 to 377,208 in 1981 or 1.9 times. According to the data supplied by the Province authorities, during that same period the number of the Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija increased from 498,242 in 1948 to 1,596,0072 (1981), or 3.2 times. Such a difference cannot be explained by any rational argument, since it would imply that the Kosmet Albanians reproduced themselves 1.7 times more rapidly than those in Macedonia.

Since this is the same geoethnic area, the living conditions are similar, the rates of growth of the Albanians, Gypsies and Turks must be similar. However, if we compare the rates of natural growth of the Albanians, Gypsies and Turks in Macedonia and Kosovo and Metohija in the period from 1981–1990 we will see that the results look like comparisons between different peoples in different countries (Table 4). In Macedonia, the number of newly arrived Albanians decreased from 22.2 per 1,000 Albanians in 1981 to 19.7 per 1,000 in 1990. However, the natural rate of growth of the Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija was shown by the figures obtained in the controversial census, as 27.6 in 1981, this meaning that per 1,000 the Albanian population grew by 5.4 persons more in Kosovo and Metohija than in Macedonia, what is not much possible. This difference even increased in individual years (Table 4). It is a well-known fact that the Gypsies have the highest birth rate and the highest rate of natural renewal. The comparison between Macedonia and Kosovo and Metohija “denies” such statement. The natural rate of growth of the Gypsies in Kosovo and Metohija was almost twice smaller (17.4), than that in Macedonia (30.7). The situation with the Turks is similar (Table 4).

Therefore, we can conclude that almost the entire population growth of the Gypsies and Turks in the Province was ascribed to Albanians. As a matter of fact, we could assume that there are twice as many Gypsies and Turks than it is shown by the figures concerning their number and natural rate of growth: the Albanian population must be decreased for that number.

 

Migration Issues

The Serbs on the Kosovo Field not only paid with the staggering loss of 77,000 lives in one day of battle, but the Serbian nation suffered 500 years of Ottoman slavery as the consequence. Historians have never spoken of Kosovo as though it were an event in the past that will never happen again. Through the centuries, Serbian sacrifice and Kosovo have become synonymous. The Serbian people have continually assumed that in every century they would again find it necessary to defend their rights to their land, self-determination, and freedom of worship. History in the Balkans continuously repeats! In 1690 more than 180,000 Serbs were forced from Kosovo and, again, an equal number were exiled in 1737. After the Berlin Congress in 1878, (till 1912) another 150,000 Serbs were expelled. This ongoing trend took on tragic proportions following the war in Crete between Turkey and Greece in 1897. Diplomatic efforts to stem the tide of atrocities against the Serbs were useless, but the documentation remains to testify of the crimes committed against the Serbian population.

The Balkan war of 1912 was fought not only by the Serbs but by the Montenegrins, Bulgarians, and Greeks to liberate their people from centuries of uninterrupted Islamic aggression. The situation is little changed today(INTERNET,www.srpska-mreza.com/kosovo/ peckapat .JPG).

During WW II the Serbs and Montenegrins were exiled from Kosovo and Metohija. When the war ended they paid “the price of peace in the house” and were never allowed to return. Their farms were given away to the Albanian refugees which were not repatriated by the authorities at the time (INTERNET, www. yugoslavia.com — Serbia Yesterday and Today).

Tito, in seeking to win over the Albanians of Kosovo during his wartime struggle to seize power, led them to believe that after the war they would have the right of self-determination, including the right of secession. But his decision at the end of the war to make Kosovo–Metohija an autonomous unit within Serbia was not warmly received. Nevertheless, several other actions of the Tito regime began to change the character of Kosovo–Metohija rather radically in favor of the Albanians. Some 100,000 Serbs were forced out of Kosovo during World War II, and they were not permitted to return. Moreover, with each passing year, more and more Serbs were forced to leave, between 150,000 and 200,000 in the 20 year period between 1961 and 1981. In the meanwhile, in the period after the war, between 200,000 to 240,000 Albanians were brought in from Albania to the Kosovo–Metohija region — and over the years Kosovo Albanians gained increasing control over events in the province (Dragnich, A and Todorovich, S., “The Saga of Kosovo”: INTERNET, http://www.Kosovo.com/ Kosovo.html).

Since 1981, when ethnic conflicts have started by campaign of the Albanian separatists many non-Albanian people left Kosovo and Metohija. The insistence on the demographic picture of the Province in Europe resulted in the abuse of that fact that led to making demands for gaining independence of Kosovo and Metohija. The Albanians rejected the censuses in 1981 and 1991, what left a huge area for arbitrary calculations of their total number in Kosovo and Metohija. Terrorism, purchase, under pressure, of estates belonging to non-Albanian population, non-payment of taxes, charges for electricity and utilities, the lack of citizenship, are the main elements of the ethnic separatist strategy of non-recognition of the state.

Albanian asylum seekers greatly did so for economic reasons, this especially applying to the Federal Republic of Germany. According to the Islami’s (1997) estimates, in 1997 about 500,000 Albanians from the Former Yugoslavia lived abroad, enjoying different status. Majority live and work in Germany — about 200,000, Switzerland — about 150,000, Sweden — about 35,000, Austria — about 23,000, Belgium — 8,000, France — 5,000, Denmark — 5,000, Italy — 4,000, Norway — 4,000, Netherlands — 2,000, Great Britain — 2,500, Finland — 600, Luxembourg — 200, Croatia 40,000, Slovenia — 15,000, and Albania about 25,000 (Islami, 1997). In Bosnia and Herzegovina, before the civil war, lived about 30,000 Albanians under the different status (Islami, 1997). However, who is a citizen of Yugoslavia and who is a citizen of Albania? Many of them came from Macedonia.

According to the data of UNHCR, the conflict in Kosovo and Metohija in the second half of 1998 has affected over half the municipalities in the province. Many residents were affected by displacement, being either refugees themselves or providing shelter for displaced persons. Municipalities outside conflict areas also host displaced persons or have been indirectly affected by the conflict. Before the conclusion of the Holbrooke–Milosevic accord on 13 October 1998, UNHCR estimated that there were some 200,000 displaced persons within Kosovo and Metohija. This number included some 120,000 people displaced outside the province — 20,000 in Serbia, 42,000 in Montenegro, 20,000 in Albania, and some 38,000 in Western Europe (some 80 per cent of the total number of asylum-seekers from FRY). Asylum-seekers had also reached countries in the neighboring region, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (10,000), Croatia and Hungary (UNHCR, Information Notes, No. 5/98).

Thousands of displaced persons began to return home in the last days of October with return movements intensifying in the early days of November 1998. The significant withdrawal of the security forces and the increasing international political presence (Kosovo Diplomatic Observer Mission/OSCE Kosovo Verification Mission) provided sufficient reassurance for return movements, which were also influenced by the onset of winter weather. The number of persons displaced within the province has dropped sharply since the conclusion of the accord and implementation of related agreements reached between the Yugoslav authorities and the international community.

The sustainability of recent returns, and the prospects for similar return movements from abroad, will hinge upon respect of the seas-fire and confidence that it is safe both to return and remain home. Without this, there is a serious risk of fresh displacement.

 

Conclusion

The analyses lead very directly to the issue of inter-ethnic relations. Instructed by the leaders of separatist political parties, members of the Albanian national minority in Kosovo and Metohija boycotted all multi-party elections since 1990. By boycotting the elections, they willfully forfeited the opportunity to participate in the process of democratic decision-making in legal state institutions and the chance to solve the problems from the area including the exercise of minority rights that belong them under the internal law of the FR of Yugoslavia and international instruments. In 1991, the Albanian separatists organized an illegal referendum, wherefore they proclaimed the so-called “Republic of Kosovo”. The right to self-determination, at the basis of their number, which is invoked by the Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija is not envisaged in International Law for national minorities, regardless of their percentage in the total population of a country. The main problems in Kosovo and Metohija are the absence of dialogue and a deep division between the ethnic groups. Non-participation in the elections — had they participated in the elections, the Albanians would have, bearing in mind the number of population, about 30 out of 250 deputies in the Republican Parliament, around 10 out of 178 deputies in the Federal Parliament, and majority of the deputies in the Parliament of the Province. The Albanians boycotted also the census in 1991. Therefore, the Albanian national minority refused to take part in the census in order to be able to speak about the figure of 1,900,000 and more Albanians in Kosovo (estimates of Huizi Islami in Table 2) — a figure found by using the extrapolated birth rate. However, a birth rate which was once established can not exploited forever for it decreases necessarily at the civilizational , cultural and material level achieved by the Albanians in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. One must also take into account the fact that many young Albanians left Kosovo and Metohija, looking for better material conditions. The number of alse asylum seekers in Western countries increased very much since 1990 — there are 140,000 asylum seekers in Germany alone. Facts show that there are less Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija than Dr. Islami estimated.

Anyway, it is necessary, first of all, to organize a census under the external control.

Settlement of regional ethnic and other conflicts is possible if various forms (political, economic, diplomatic, etc.) are applied to create conditions for development of the peoples. Ethnic tolerance is conducive to a healthy democracy and economy. Tolerance and coexistence are cheaper and more viable than the creation of ethnically pure regions, whether by war or organized migrations. Therefore, the pursuit of self-determination based on ethnicity should be discouraged.

Whatever political solution is found one day — the citizens of Kosovo will need help to recover, reconciliate, and build trust among each other. At the best peace can be built from the ground-up. If we look at what the international community has done in Croatia and Bosnia and now in Kosovo since 1991, I would prefer to talk of preventing diplomacy. Nothing can be achieved before there is a minimum of trust. And trust comes from listening; understanding and exploring better future possibilities — together.

 

REFERENCES

Adamovic, B. (1995) Expulsion of Serbs and Montenegrins from Kosovo and Metohija — the most sweeping ethnic cleansing in Europe, in Kosovo and Metohija. An Integral Part of the Republic of Serbia and -FR of Yugoslavia, Belgrade: Review of International Affairs.

Batakovic, D.T. (1992) The Kosovo Chronicles, Belgrade: Plato.

Cesarani, D. and M. Fulbrook, Eds. (1996) Citizenship, Nationality and Migration in Europe, London and New York: Routledge.

Dragnich, A.N. and Todorovich, S. (1984) The Saga of Kosovo. Focus on Serbian–Albanian Relations, Boulder Colorado.

Federal Secretariat of Information (1998) The Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija. Facts, Belgrade: Federal Secretariat of Information.

Igic, Z. (1995) Kosovo — Metohija — A Demographic Bomb in Southern Serbia, in Kosovo and Metohija. An Integral Part of the Republic of Serbia and FR of Yugoslavia, Belgrade: Review of International Affairs.

Islami, H. (1997) Dimensioni demografik i ceshtjes se Kosoves, Prishtine.

Milosevic, S. (1998) “I Can Only Be Proud on My Role” (Interview), The Washington Post, December 13, 1998.

Petkovic, M.V. (1998) Albanian Terrorists, Belgrade: Kalekom

Review of International Affairs (1995) Kosovo and Metohija. An Integral Part of the Republic of Serbia and FR of Yugoslavia, Belgrade: Review of International Affairs.

Roth, H.(1996) Kosovo Origins. The Background to the Present-day Situation in Kosovo and Metohia, Belgrade: “Nikola Pasic”.

 

Tables

Table 1: Kosovo and Metohija in Figures
The Area of the Republic of Serbia Squ. km 88,361
The Area of Kosovo and Metohija Squ. km 10,887
Number of Communes 29
Number of Districts 5
Number of Agglomerations 1,449
Total number of registered enterprises
Number of active enterprises
18,045
7,682
Number of employed 116,379
Number of schools 370
The Prishtina University 18,000
Number of Medical Institutions 96
Supreme Organs of Autonomy–Temporary
Executive Council
President, and
16 members
Source: Federal Secretariat of Information, The Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija. Facts, Belgrade, 1998, p. 6.

 

Table 2: Population of Kosovo and Metohija: National Composition, 1948–1995
  1948 1953 1961 1971 1981 1995 (a)
Albanians — Total
Percent ( %)
498,242
68.5
524,559
64.9
646,605
67.2
917,167
73.7
1,226,736
77.4
1,960,000
89.9
Serbs
Percent
171,914
23.6
189,869
23.5
227,016
23.6
228,261
18.4
209,497
13.2
140,000
6.3
Montenegrins
Percent
28,050
3.9
31,343
3.9
37,588
3.9
31,555
2.5
27,028
1.7
7,000
0.3
Moslems
Percent
6,679
1.3
6,241
0.8
8,026
0.8
26,351
2.1
58,562
3.6
40,000
1.9
Turks
Percent
1,315
0.2
34,583
4.3
25,764
2.7
12,244
1.0
12,513
0.7
8,000
0.3
Roms
Percent
11,230
1.5
11,904
1.5
3,202
0.3
14,593
1.2
34,126
2.1
40,000
1.9
Others
Percent
7,746
1.0
8,845
1.0
15,761
1.6
14,516
1.1
15,978
1.0
5,000
0.2
Total 733,820 807,344 963,988 1,243,693 1,584,440 2,200,000
a) For 1995 estimates of Dr. Hiuzi Islami.
Source: Dr. Huizi Islami, Dimensioni demografik i ceshtjes se Kosoves, Prishtine, 1997, p. 228.

 

Table 3: The Population in Kosovo and Metohija (Estimates, mid-1998)
Serbs 221,000
Montenegrins 23,000
Yugoslavs 3,500
Albanians 917,000
Macedonians 980
Moslems 72,500
Roms 97,000
Turks 21,000
Others and unknown 23,000
Total 1,378,980
Source: Federal Secretariat of Information, The Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija. Facts, Belgrade, 1998, p.6.

 

Table 4:The Rates of Natural Population Growth, 1981–1990
  1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Macedonia
Albanians 22.2 21.4 20.7 20.1 20.7 20.5 20.0 20.6 18.9 19.7
Roms 30.7 31.5 29.0 29.4 30.5 28.2 27.3 27.8 24.6 24.2
Turks 20.6 18.6 14.6 15.6 15.6 15.5 17.4 16.8 16.1 14.6
Kosova and Metohija
Albanians 27.6 29.6 26.1 29.4 27.3 27.9 28.3 27.7 25.6 26.8
Roms 17.4 19.2 15.8 25.8 20.4 21.9 24.3 24.5 22.3 22.7
Turks 13.4 12.9 9.9 14.6 18.4 17.5 16.9 13.6 12.1 15.8
Source: Federal Secretariat of Information, The Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija. Facts, Belgrade, 1998, p.9.

 

Table 5: Estimate of refugees and displaced persons still seeking solutions
FR YUGOSLAVIA
Serbia
Origin Total
BIH 192,400
Croatia 306,200
Slovenia 3,000
FYR of Macedonia 1,300
DPs (Kosovo) 195,000
Total 697,900
Montenegro
Origin Total
BIH 17,900
Croatia 6,000
Slovenia 200
DPs (Kosovo) 40,000
Total 64,100
TOTAL FRY 762,000
Source: UNHCR Information Notes, No. 5/98, p. 7.

 


Endnotes

*: Prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington, D.C., February 16–20, 1999.  Back.