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India and Pakistan


What If Pakistan Fails? India Isn't Worried ... Yet
C. Raja Mohan
The Washington Quarterly
Winter 2004-2005
Volume 28, Number 1

 

Abstract

The issue of failed states has risen to the forefront of international relations in the last few years, with Pakistan widely considered as a potential case. The Indian establishment has closely followed U.S. debate over the prospect of Pakistan weakening and disintegrating. Although many Indians relish this thought, as it would weaken its historical adversary, few decisionmakers in New Delhi are convinced that the likelihood of this prospect lies just around the corner. India is currently in no rush to prepare for such a contingency.

Some in New Delhi suspect that attempts to diagnose Pakistan with failed-state syndrome merely serve to perpetuate the long-standing alliance between Washington and Islamabad. Pakistani rulers have been adept at manipulating Washington's fears of political uncertainty in their nation. At every stage, Washington tends to argue that the current regime in Islamabad is indeed indispensable and often advises New Delhi to ease up on immediate disputes with its western neighbor. New Delhi recognizes Washington's enduring political dependence on Islamabad, especially on Pakistan's military, in order to pursue its political interests in south and southwest Asia. Washington's decision, for whatever reason, to discretely handle the Abdul Qadeer Khan affair—the so-called father of the Pakistani bomb whose extensive network of nuclear proliferation was unveiled earlier this year—confirms New Delhi's assessment that Washington will allow Islamabad to get away with anything. Washington declared Khan an individual offender and allowed the Pakistani government to pardon Khan rather than consider him part of a system in Pakistan that has deliberately promoted the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

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