Drug Trafficking in US-Mexican Relations: The Politics of Simulation

Jorge Chabat
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)
2000

Abstract

This document presents the hypothesis that the Mexican and U.S. governments are trapped in their current anti-drug strategy. This strategy causes high levels of violence and corruption in Mexican territory, and cannot be changed because it responds to pressures exerted by American public opinion on its own government. One of the consequences is that the U.S. government is compelled annually to certify the Mexican government's fight against drugs. This certification constrains an accurate evaluation of Mexico's combat against narcotrafficking, because it tends to underestimate failures and exaggerate accomplishments. Nevertheless, the possibility of change in the anti-drug strategy is limited, so this scenario is expected to endure for several years. In this sense on can also expect a better integration f Mexican and U.S. anti-drug policies in the near and medium term.

In this document is presented the hypothesis that the Mexican and U.S. Governments are trapped in the current anti-drug strategy, which causes high levels of violence and corruption in Mexican territory, and that the remarked strategy cannot be changed because it responds to pressures exercised by American public opinion upon its own government. One consequence of this hypothesis is the U.S. government is compelled to annually certify the Mexican government in its fight against drugs. This impedes to accurately evaluate combat against narcotrafficking in Mexico because it tends to underestimate failures and to exaggerate accomplishments. Nevertheless, perspectives of change in the anti-drug strategy are limited, which causes to expect that this scenario will be maintained for several years. In this sense it is also likely to expect for a better integration of Mexican anti-drug policy and U.S. anti-drug policy.

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