Chart of Possible Middle East Peace Process Outcomes

Greg Gause

The Mershon Center,
February, 1998.

This table is constructed to capture the possible outcomes (as suggested by Dalia Dassa Kaye) of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process along 4 variables

David and Steve: I worked up a little chart of possible outcomes for the ME peace process based on the 4 variables suggested by Dalia Dassa Kaye at the meeting, and proceeded to eliminate a large number of combinations based on a few assumptions about incompatibility of outcomes. I could not represent those eliminations on the chart, but, if we number the boxes starting at "1" in the northwest corner (1234; second line 5678; etc.), I eliminated the following boxes: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24. You can see in the attachment the bases upon which I eliminated them.

So, I don't know if you guys will be able to read the attachment, which is sent in WordPerfect 6.0. If you can't, just e-mail me and I will fax it. I also don't know if you guys want to post it to the website that David is maintaining, but feel free if you do.

On another matter, we seemed at the meeting to be assuming violence a almost a constant. This makes sense, but it seems that our reasoning on this was completely inductive. I don't know how we would reason deductively from IR theories to the inevitability of violence no matter what the negotiations outcome is. My understanding is that we are trying to reason deductively on this stuff from IR theories, and I wonder if the whole issue of violence (level of) is something we can in fact do that on. I guess as long as we are explicit about it, there is no harm to being inductive.

Hope all is well with the beginning of the semester. Cheers, Greg

F. Gregory Gause, III
Department of Political Science telephone: 802-656-0571
The University of Vermont fax: 802-656-0758
P.O. Box 54110
Burlington, VT 05405-4110 e-mail: fgause@zoo.uvm.edu

This table is constructed to capture the possible outcomes (as suggested by Dalia Dassa Kaye) of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process along 4 variables.

1. Agreement between Israel and the PA/No Agreement

2. Large-scale violence at the end point of the process/Relatively non-violent

3. Degree of Autonomy accorded to the Palestinians at the end point: Israel back into existing PA territory/Status Quo plus a bit more autonomy for the PA/Palestinian sovereignty in territory under PA control

4. Territorial boundaries of the Palestinian authority: Existing borders (Bantustans)/Roughly 1967 West Bank-Gaza borders

A number of the combinations I have eliminated as logically impossible, drawing an "X" through them. I made the following assumptions of impossibility: a) that "agreement" and "Israel back in control" are impossible, because the PA will not accept it; b) that "agreement" and "Bantustans" are impossible, because the PA will not accept it; c) that "No agreement" and "approximately 1967 boundaries" are impossible, because Israel would not permit it; and d) that "No agreement" and "Palestinian control" are impossible, because Israel would not permit it.

I have not eliminated those boxes that pair "no agreement" and "non-violent," because I can logically envisage outcomes where the level of force/repression is such that active resistance from the populace (basically Palestinians, but one could also include Israeli settlers, logically) is crushed.

Interestingly, it works down fairly quickly to just eight possible outcomes along these four variables.

Agreement Hope Violence Isr. back in Bantustans	Agreement Violence Isr. back in app. '67	No agreement Violence Isr. back in Bantustans	No agreement Violence Isr. back in app. '67
Agreement non-violent Isr. back in Bantustans	Agreement non-violent Isr. back in app. '67	No agreement non-violent Isr. back in Bantustans	No agreement non-violent Isr. back in app. '67
Agreement Violence Status Quo + Bantustans	Agreement Violence Status Quo + app. '67	No agreement Violence Status Quo + Bantustans	No Agreement Violence Status Quo + app. '67
Agreement non-violent Status Quo + Bantustans	Agreement non-violent Status Quo + app. '67	No agreement non-violent Status Quo + Bantustans	No Agreement non-violent Status Quo + app. '67
Agreement Violence Pal. Control Bantustans	Agreement Violence Pal. Control app. '67	No Agreement Violence Pal. Control Bantustans	No Agreement Violence Pal. Control app. '67
Agreement non-violent Pal. Control Bantustans	Agreement non-violent Pal. Control app. '67	No Agreement non-violent Pal. Control Bantustans	No Agreement non-violent Pal. Control app. '67