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The Mershon Center,
Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process,
February 14-15, 1997.

Chronology of the Middle East Peace Process

1993
4/27 The ninth round of the Middle East Peace talks, begun in Madrid in October, 1993, open in Washington, D.C. Bilateral negotiations have been conducted on four separate negotiating tracks: Israel-Syria, Israel-Lebanon, Israel-Jordan, and Israel-Palestine, with marginal results.
5-6, 10, 12 Israel, the Palestinians, and the U.S. present statements of principles regarding self-rule in the West Bank. The attempts at a joint declaration fail; the Palestinians accuse the U.S. of siding with Israel.
5-10 Violence continues in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Amid the ongoing closure of the occupied territories, more than a dozen Palestinians, including children, are killed by Israeli troops.
5-13 Syrian, Lebanese, Jordanian, and Palestinian delegations to the peace talks conclude the talks, saying that Israel had created a deadlock in the negotiations, and criticizing the U.S. for not pressuring Israel to relinquish control over the occupied West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Golan Heights.
5-16 Palestinian gunmen kill two Israeli and two Arab merchants who had been trading vegetables outside a Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip. Hamas and Fatah, the mainstream wing of the PLO, claim responsibility. It is the first time the rival groups conduct a joint military action.
9 Israel and the PLO secretly negotiate the Oslo "Declaration of Principles," or, the "Gaza-Jericho First Accord," outlining a plan to establish gradual Palestinian self-rule in the occupied territories (excluding Jewish Settlements). Negotiations on the status of Jerusalem are to be taken up in about two years' time. As part of the agreement, Israel recognizes the PLO as the representative of the Palestinian people. Likewise, the PLO recognizes Israel's right to exist in peace and security, accepts UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338 (on Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories), and renounces use of terrorism and violence.
9-13 PLO chairman Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin shake hands outside the White House in Washington.
9-14 Israel and Jordan agree to "The Common Agenda," a peace negotiation plan with components concerning security, water, refugee, and border disputes.
10-4 Car bomb attacks are launched by Hamas supporters.
10-13 Israeli and Palestinian negotiators meet in the Egyptian resort town of Taba for the first of what will prove to be years of talks on the practical details of the self-rule plan.
12-13 Israel misses the deadline for the start of troop withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank town of Jericho.
1994
1-13 Israel and the PLO resume talks over self-rule in the occupied territories.
1-14 Five Palestinians and one Israeli January 14 die in clashes in Hebron, marking the bloodiest day of conflict since the signing of the September 1993 accord.
1-15 A survey of 1,622 Palestinians in the occupied territories indicates that Palestinian support for the PLO-Israeli self-rule accord had dropped dramatically, with 45% backing the pact and 40% opposing it. The poll, conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center, contrasted with a survey conducted by the same organization in September 1993 that had shown 69% of respondents favoring the accord and 28% opposing it.
1-22 Peres and Arafat meet in Oslo, following the funeral of the Norwegian Foreign Minister, Johan Joergen Holst.
1-24 PLO Chairman Arafat visits Saudi Arabia, marking his first visit to the kingdom since his support for Iraq during the 1990-91 Persian Gulf crisis.
2-10 Arafat and Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres sign a partial agreement on implementing the Declaration of Principles, focusing on procedures at border crossings of autonomous areas.
2-25 An American Jewish settler, Baruch Goldstein, kills 29 Palestinians praying at the Al-Ibrahim Mosque in Hebron. Survivors beat Goldstein to death.

Gaza-Jericho talks are stalled for five weeks as negotiators argue over Palestinian security in Hebron.
3-31 Israel agrees to an international observer force in Hebron; Gaza-Jericho talks resume.
4-6 A car bombs explodes at a bus stop in Afula, northern Israel, Killing 8 and wounding 44. Hamas claims responsibility. Israeli police deploy in Israeli-Arab villages to protect Palestinian citizens of Israel.
4-13 A suicide bomb explodes in a bus in Hadera, Israel, killing six and wounding eight; Hamas claims responsibility.

The Deadline for completion of Israeli troop withdrawal passes. Troops remain in Gaza and Jericho with no sign of an observer force in Hebron.
5-4 The PLO and Israel sign the "Gaza Strip and Jericho Area Accord" in Cairo, giving Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip their first taste of self-rule since. The deal calls for Israeli pullout but permits the Israeli army to stay in Jewish settlements covering about 40 percent of the narrow Strip.
5-11 Israel begins transfer of power to the PLO by handing over a military base in the Gaza Strip to Palestinian police officers.
5-13 Israel hands over Jericho to jubilant Palestinian police.
5-26 The PLO's London-based committee drafts a constitution for the PNA, the PLO, and any successor institutions, declaring East Jerusalem the capital of a future Palestinian state.
7-1 Arafat returns to the newly autonomous Gaza to a rapturous welcome, after more than a quarter century of Israeli occupation, and takes over as head of the Palestinian Authority.
7-25 Israel and Jordan sign "The Washington Declaration," officially ending their state of war and reaffirming the principles of the 1993 Common Agenda.
8-29 Israel and the PLO sign the "Agreement on the Preparatory Transfer of Powers and Responsibilities" wherein the Gaza-Jericho agreement of May is further detailed.
10-14 An Israeli soldier, kidnapped by Hamas, is killed during a failed Israeli rescue attempt. An Israeli commando officer and three Hamas kidnappers also die.
10-26 Israel and Jordan sign a peace treaty in a ceremony at their border, attended by U.S. President Bill Clinton. Clinton later visits Damascus but makes no progress towards bringing about peace between Israel and Syria.
11-24 Palestinian police loyal to Arafat open fire for the first time on militant Arab protesters. 15 people are killed and 200 wounded in day-long clashes across Gaza City between the Palestine National Authority (PNA) security forces and the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas. But by the end of the day, Arafat and Hamas secure a tense truce.

A three-judge Israeli military court sentences to death a Hamas militant for his role in planning a suicide-bombing attack in North-central Israel in April. The bombing had killed five Israelis as well as the attacker. The sentence against the convicted Palestinian was, however, not expected to be carried out because Israeli law does not formally permit the death penalty except in instances involving Nazi war crimes.
11-25 Members of Arafat's Fatah faction and anti-Arafat dissidents fight armed battles in the Ain Hilwe refugee camp in Sidon, Lebanon. At least seven people reportedly died in the clashes.
11-27 Hamas Gunmen shoot to death a Rabbi and wound an Israeli policeman near Hebron. Several days later, a Palestinian kills a female Israeli soldier with an ax in the northern Israeli town of Afula.
12-1 Israel completes a five-tiered transfer of administrative powers to PNA authorities on the West Bank, yielding power over taxation (excluding customs duties) and health services. Israel previously had handed over control of education, social services and tourism to the PNA.
12-6 Israeli and PLO negotiators resume talks in Cairo, Egypt aimed at expanding limited Palestinian self-rule throughout most of the West Bank.
12-8 Israel reaffirms its commitment to redeploy Israeli troops away from Palestinian population centers but suggests that its pullback timetable will be guided by the Palestinian National Authority's ability to ensure the security of Israeli settlers. The Israeli statement came after three heated Israeli cabinet debates over whether terms of the 1993 Declaration of Principles remained viable in the wake of a spate of deadly anti-Israeli violence perpetrated by Palestinian Islamic militants hostile to the Israel-PLO peace process.
12-10 Arafat, Rabin and Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres in Oslo, Norway accept emblazoned gold medals that symbolized the shared Nobel Peace Prize that they had been jointly awarded for their pivotal roles in fashioning the Israeli-PLO peace process.
1995
1-26 A Palestinian suicide bomber kills 19 at an Israeli Army bus terminal.
3-25 Israel suspends East Jerusalem land seizures in response to mounting international criticism.
4-2 An Explosion in a Gaza City apartment kills several Palestinians, including top Hamas guerrilla Kamal Kheil. Hamas, vowing revenge, blames Israel for the blast and accuses the PLO of collusion.
4-9 Palestinian suicide bombings kill eight Jews in two attacks near Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip.
6-22 A leader of the Islamic Jihad is assassinated in Gaza. Palestinians blame Israel, which denies responsibility. Several days later A Palestinian donkey-cart driver blows himself up in Gaza near Israeli soldiers, wounding three.
9-24 Israel and the PLO initial the second phase agreement of interim Palestinian autonomy, also dubbed "Oslo II," on extending Palestinian rule to most of the West Bank after months of tense negotiations. The accord, which is nearly 16 months behind schedule, calls for Israeli troops to begin leaving six West Bank Arab population areas ten days after the signing of the deal. The first stage of the troop withdrawals will last six months and be followed within 22 days by Palestinian elections. Hebron is to be divided into three zones, one under Palestinian command, one under Israeli, and one joint. Israel agrees to recognize Hebron as a "Palestinian City," and the Palestinians acquiesced to a limited number of Israeli soldiers to serve as a protective shield for Israeli settlers in Hebron. Israel is to maintain a security presence at the Tomb of the Patriarchs, a site held holy by Jews, which shares a wall with the Ibrahim Mosque, a Muslim holy site. (The agreement had been faltering, but U.S. Mediator Denis Ross and Egyptian President Mubarak, via long distance telephone, manage to coax negotiators back to the table). Palestinian and Israeli elements hostile to the accord decry the agreement, while Prime Minister Rabin says the accord "ends the hallucination of a Greater Israel." 1
10-24 Both houses of the U.S. Congress pass a Republican-led bill to force the U.S. administration to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, from Tel Aviv, its current site. Clinton and several Senators, along with Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates decry such a move as a threat to the Arab-Israeli peace process. An escape clause in the bill allows the President to postpone the move indefinitely.

Israeli troops begin withdrawing from the six Palestinian cities int he West Bank; withdrawal from Hebron is set for March.
10-31 Rabin, Perez, Arafat, Christopher, King Hussein, and the Egyptian foreign minister, Amre Moussa are among the top figures to attend the Second Middle East-North African Economic Summit in Amman. The governments of Syria and Lebanon boycott the meeting, while Hussein and Moussa criticize each other for normalizing relations with Israel too rapidly.
11-4 Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is assassinated as he leaves peace rally in Tel Aviv. A 23-year-old right-wing Israeli, Yigal Amir, is arrested and confesses to the shooting (he is later sentenced to life in prison). Shimon Peres becomes prime minister.
11-13 Two explosions rock a military training and communications center in central Riyadh, the Saudi Arabian capital, killing seven people, including five Americans, and injuring about 60 others. Up to half of the 200 people working in the structure at the time of the blasts were U.S. military and civilian advisers to the Saudi National Guard. Saudi King Fahd condemns the criminal act. It is the first apparent terrorist operation against the U.S. carried out on Saudi soil in 50 years.
11-30 Israeli soldiers open fire on hundreds of stone-throwing Palestinians in Nablus, the West Bank. 24 people are wounded. The violence came on an anniversary and shortly before Israel's planned troop withdrawal from the city: six years ago to the day, Israeli soldiers disguised as Arabs killed four Black Panther members in Nablus.
12-27 Israel and Syria resume peace talks in Maryland after a six-month break.
12-27 Israel cedes control of Ramallah, completing the hand-over to Palestinian rule of six West Bank towns under the September accord.
12-27 The Israeli army withdraws from the West Bank town of Ramallah, completing its hand-over of territory to the Palestinian Authority and ending 28 years of occupation. 130,000 Israelis are still living on about 180 settlements in these territories.
12-30 A Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel prompts Israeli officials to question Syria's commitment to the recently renewed talks. No one is killed.
1996
1-5 Yahya Ayyash, known as "The Engineer" and believed the mastermind behind a wave of Islamic suicide bombings against Israel, is killed in the Gaza Strip when his cellular telephone blows up. The militant Islamic group Hamas vows to avenge his death.
1-19 Israeli troops kill three Hamas members in the West Bank. Palestinians demonstrate in the streets and call for armed revenge against Israel.
1-20 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and West Bank vote a president and an 88-seat self-rule council in their first historic elections. Yasser Arafat is elected president with an overwhelming majority. In the legislative council, mostly Fatah supporters (a Palestinian organization loyal to Arafat and the PLO), are elected.
2-5 Amnesty International accuses Israel and the Palestinian Authority of widespread human rights abuses.
2-13 Israel closes its borders with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The Israeli government says it fears Palestinian attacks during preparations for upcoming elections. The closure keeps tens of thousands of Palestinians from working in Israel.

The Israeli government announces that it wants to build more housing for Jewish settlers on the occupied West Bank. The plans call for more than 5,000 new homes. The Palestinian self-rule authority says such a move would harm the peace process.
2-20 Israel's major political parties agree to hold general elections on May 29.
2-22 Israel and the Palestinians begin a new round of "secret talks."
2-23 Prime Minister Shimon Peres orders the lifting of a ten-day closure of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
2-25 Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdel Karim Kabariti travels to the Gaza Strip. He will discuss bilateral relations and the Middle East peace process, as well as inaugurate Jordan's representation office there.

Two back-to-back bus bombings in Jerusalem and Ashkelon kill 44 and injure over 80 people. Security sources said the bombings were in revenge for the killing of Ayyash. Perez orders a security crackdown in the West Bank and delays the Hebron pullout.
2-26 After a car slams into a crowded bus stop in Jerusalem, Israeli bystanders shoot the driver dead, believing him to be a terrorist. The impact of the vehicle killed two people and injures many others.
2-27 Yasser Arafat is scheduled to visit Jordan and Egypt.
2-29 Hamas and its Qassam military wing issue a statement offering to halt attacks against Israeli civilians in exchange for a prisoner release and other conditions.
3-1 Israeli Foreign Minister Ehud Barak rules out negotiations with Hamas.
3-3 Two Hamas suicide bombers kill themselves and almost 40 others. Arafat pledges to help Israel in the fight against Muslim militant groups.
3-5 Thousands of Israeli soldiers storm West Bank towns and raid autonomous Palestinian regions, following Prime Minister Peres' order.
3-9 Arafat arrests 12 Hamas activists after 48-hour raids.

For the first time in three weeks, Israeli security measures are eased at the country's borders with Palestinian territories.
May-June General elections are scheduled. Prime Minister Shimon Peres of the Labor party and his opponent Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party are the main candidates.
3-13 Mubarak and Clinton host the Sharm el-Sheikh "Summit of Peacemakers" where commitments to the peace process are reaffirmed.
3-28 In the largest Israeli raid in the West Bank since the area came under joint control with the PLO. Israeli security forces arrested up to 250 Palestinians.
4-3 Another leader of the militant Islamic Jihad is captured after being on the run for more than a month. Most heads of the Islamic Jihad and Hamas are in detention.
4-4 Arafat fires a senior police commander who had ordered the raid of a West Bank university, and says he will create special guard units for Palestinian universities. The moves came a day after student protests aimed at Arafat.
4-6 Hundreds of Palestinians and Israelis march in Bethlehem to protest an Israeli government plan to confiscate Palestinian land.
4-11 Israel launches a 16-day air and artillery campaign against the military Islamic group Hezbollah, in south Lebanon. 165 people are killed, including 91 Lebanese civilians at a U.N. base hit by Israeli shells. The Israeli government says the shells were meant for Hezbollah members who had been firing into Israel. Arafat condemns the attack.
4-19 Arafat meets with Prime Minister Peres. Describing the meeting as "very positive" Arafat criticizes Israel's deadly attacks in Lebanon and calls for a return to the 1993 agreements which ban the targeting of civilians.
4-25 The Palestinian National Council declares it no longer seeks the destruction of Israel through an armed struggle.
4-26 Israel and Lebanon sign the "Ceasefire Understanding."
5-1 Israeli mobile artillery leave Lebanon. However, beyond the border fence and the patrol road, Israel still has forces in its "security zone" in south Lebanon. A cease-fire that ends two weeks of fierce Israeli-Hezbollah fighting comes into effect.
5-4 According to initial U.N. findings, Israel deliberately targeted the U.N. camp at Cana in Lebanon because Hezbollah guerrillas had taken refuge at the base.
5-5 Israel and the PLO launch final-status talks.
5-8 The Israeli army releases a video taken by an Israeli reconnaissance plane as it flew near a U.N. camp minutes after Israeli shells bombarded it. An officer claims the film shows there was no intent to kill civilians.
5-12 An anti-terrorism summit is held in Egypt with representatives from some 30 countries and international organizations. Syria and Lebanon reject invitations to the meeting.
5-14 An initial contingent of 32 temporary international observers take up positions in Hebron as Israel plans to hand over most of the West Bank to Arab rule.
5-17 Israeli soldiers shoot and wound a fugitive of the Islamic militant Hamas group, suspected of planning suicide bombings.
5-30 Four Israeli soldiers are killed and at least seven people are wounded by roadside Hezbollah bombs that explode as a convoy of jeeps drove through the occupied southern Lebanon town of Marjayoun.
5-31 Benjamin Netanyahu becomes prime-minister elect after narrowly defeating Prime Minister Shimon Peres.

Israeli fighter jets rocket suspected guerrilla targets in eastern Lebanon before dawn in apparent retaliation for the killing of four Israeli soldiers.
6-19 Netanyahu begins his first full day in office, his government promises to pursue "peace with security" in the Mideast, but Arabs say they are skeptical that the peace process will proceed.
6-22 An Arab summit Cairo is hosted by Mubarak with 13 other heads of state and representatives from seven other Arab countries. Saddam Hussein of Iraq was not invited; Libyan president Moammar Gadhafi flew into Egypt in defiance of the UN ban on international air travel to and from Libya.

Assad and Hussein meet with Arafat for the first time since they signed independent treaties with Israel in 1993 and 1994, respectively.
7-23 Arafat meets with Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy in Gaza. It is the first high-level meeting since Netanyahu took office.
8-2 Netanyahu infuriates Palestinians by lifting a four-year freeze on expansion of Jewish settlements on the West Bank. The previous government had frozen expansion of settlements.
8-9 Israel says there will be no progress on peace moves until the Palestinian Authority shuts its offices in Arab East Jerusalem.
8-27 Israel hoists a bulldozer over Jerusalem's Old City wall and demolishes a Palestinian community center. The Israelis say the center was built without a permit.
8-28 Arafat says Israel has declared war on Palestinians by expanding the settlements.
9-1 Israeli and Palestinian negotiators begin marathon talks, with Norwegian mediation, aimed at scheduling a Netanyahu-Arafat meeting.
9-4 After an hour-long meeting at the Erez crossing between Israel and Gaza, Arafat and Netanyahu express willingness to work together to advance Mideast peace efforts. But there is no announcement of specific progress to break the stalemate in negotiations since Netanyahu's government came into office.
9-24 The Israeli government opens for tourism an ancient tunnel near an Islamic holy site, the al-Asqa mosque. The decision ignites protests reminiscent of Palestinian intifada or uprising (and angers many Israelis and U.S. Jews).
9-28 Palestinian police use clubs to beat back protestors from approaching Israeli positions on the outskirts of Ramallah, after three day of clashes that leave at least 72 people dead.
9-29 Clinton invites Netanyahu, Arafat, Jordan's King Hussein and Egyptian President Mubarak to an emergency peace conference. In Washington, Netanyahu promises non-stop talks after the summit on implementing the delayed Israeli troop redeployment in West Bank city of Hebron. Arafat, King Hussein and Netanyahu meet with Clinton and U.S. officials. Mubarak declines to attend. The summit ends with an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians to keep talking. Israeli officials say the summit was a success; Palestinians call it a failure.
10-16 Palestinian and Israeli negotiators in Taba, Egypt resume formal talks over the future of Hebron.
11-26 Syria insists that it will resume negotiations with Israel, stalled since February, only on the basis that partial agreements that Syria had reached earlier with Israel's Labor-led government would remain firm. This includes the land-for-peace formula, adhered to under the previous government, but largely rejected by the Netanyahu government.
11-30 Arafat says Israeli-Palestinian talks on self-rule in Hebron have made no progress. U.S. negotiator Dennis Ross leaves the faltering talks.
12-3 Israel announces plans to expand Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
12-12 Israel closes off the West Bank town of Ramallah after a drive-by shooting, apparently by a Palestinian terror group.
12-14 Arafat again calls Israel's decision to build more settlements in the West Bank "a declaration of war" on the peace process.
12-21 Ross flies to the Mideast to launch another round of talks.
12-24 Arafat and Netanyahu meet face-to-face for the first time in months, and Ross emerges from meetings to say that progress was made. But a deal on Hebron is not reached.
12-25 Jewish settlers in Hebron attempt to take over four vacant homes in an Arab neighborhood at dawn. Scuffles ensue between Israeli troops and the settlers while settlers and Palestinians hurled eggs, apples and stones at each other. A holy town for both Arabs and Jews, Hebron has over 400 settlers and more than 130,000 Palestinians. 20 percent of the town is to remain under Israeli rule.
1997
1-1 Talks over Hebron are temporarily stalled after an off-duty Israeli soldier with "psychological problems" fires an automatic rifle into a Hebron market, wounding seven.
1-4 Both side are reported "drifting apart" on the Hebron deal.
1-11 Palestinian-Israeli talks on an Israeli pull-out from 80 percent of Hebron are deadlocked. Arafat insists that Netanyahu's government adhere to the 1995 interim peace plan that requires withdrawal from several other towns in the West Bank by September, 1997. Netanyahu refuses to set a concrete date for the pull-out, for this would mean surrendering Jewish lands which could be used as bargaining tools in negotiating more difficult issues, namely, Jerusalem, Jewish settlements, and Israel's borders.
1-13 Israel and the PLO agree to a timeline for Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank (under the sway of King Hussein and the U.S's diplomatic efforts).
1-15 Arafat and Netanyahu agree to the partial Israeli pull-out from Hebron.
1-17 The Israeli Parliament agrees to the Hebron accord; Hamas condemns the agreement. The transfer of authority is described as "seamless."
1-20 Arafat flies to Hebron to greet ecstatic crowds and speaks of moving toward a "just and comprehensive peace."


Compiled from reports in: Reuters, CNN, The Associated Press, The New York Times, Facts on File, The Journal of Palestine Studies, The Israeli Foreign Ministry's Home Page.

Note 1: A term used by right-wing Israelis to describe an Israeli state enlarged through annexation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, which Israeli forces had captured in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Back.