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The Russian Election Compendium
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
June 12, 1996, No. 22
I. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Election in June being held and completed.
A. Betting Charts:
| Individual | Likelihood | Change From Last Election Watch |
| Graham Allison (SDI Director) | 80% | +15% |
| Sergei Grigoriev (SDI Fellow) | 90% | +10% |
| Matthew Lantz (SDI Researcher) | 90% | +15% |
B. Events Affecting the Election in June:
TRANSFER OF POWER BILL APPROVED BY DUMA; MAY BE REJECTED BY PRESIDENT: The bill describing the transfer of presidential power passed its third and final reading in the Duma on May 24 and went to the Federation Council (upper house) for approval. The law states the new president will be sworn in on the 30th day after the official election results are released. The government under the current president would be forced to resign. The month prior to being sworn in, the president-elect would be allowed to attend meetings of the Security Council and other federal agencies and would be told of troop movements or attempts to introduce states of emergency. A spokesman for President YELTSIN announced the President would not sign the bill. It comes at a time too politically charged, and the Communist are likely to use the bill to demand that GENNADY ZYUGANOV be inaugurated even if he does not win. (Financial Times (FT) 5/25, OMRI 5/23, 5/24, 6/11)
ELECTION MONITORING LAW FAILS: The Duma failed for a third time to override the Federation Council's veto of the election monitoring law. The law would have allowed private citizens to become monitors by collecting ten signatures and registering with the Central Election Commission (CEC). Currently, only official party representatives are allowed to monitor the election. The law also required tallies be written in pen, allowed only three days for vote tabulation, allowed local courts to declare local results invalid, and proposed a parallel vote count in a sample 2% of the districts. The Federation Council claimed the law was too expensive and would interfere in the voting process by having as many as 300 monitors in the polling place. (OMRI 5/16,20, NYT 6/3)
CEC REPORTS CANDIDATES' FINANCES: According to the CEC, the YELTSIN campaign has already raised Rb14.3 billion ($2.86 million), which is approaching the maximum amount of financial contribution allowed, and has spent Rb6.78 ($1.36 million). ZYUGANOV, by comparison, has only raised Rb3.2 billion ($640,000) and has spent Rb3.36 ($672,000). LEBED has raised Rb5.7 billion ($1.14 million); ZHIRINOVSKY has received Rb7.2 billion ($1.44 million) and has spent Rb3.36 billion ($672,000); and YAVLINSKY has raised Rb5.9 billion ($1.18 million) and has spent Rb5.42 ($1.08 million). Financial statements are not considered accurate by many election watchers. (NYT 6/1, OMRI 5/24)
CEC CITES ELECTION VIOLATIONS: The CEC criticized numerous left-leaning newspapers for campaigning for ZYUGANOV earlier than was allowed by law. Regional papers in Stavropol and the blatantly anti-Communist Ne Dai Bog (God Forbid) were accused of the same offense on behalf of the YELTSIN campaign. Ne Dai Bog was also criticized for not having proper information in its masthead. ZHIRINOVSKY's and ZYUGANOV's campaigns were cited for using the candidates' Duma status to gain airtime. (OMRI 5/17)
ST. PETERSBURG MAYOR LOSES: ANATOLY SOBCHAK, the incumbent Mayor of St. Petersburg lost his reelection bid to his former deputy, VLADIMIR YAKOVLEV on June 2. After the first round of voting on May 14, Sobchak led Yakovlev 28.8% to 21.8%. But in the second round Yakovlev emerged victorious with a 47.5% to 45.8% margin. Although both candidates were considered pro-reform, Sobchak's loss confirms the anti-incumbent mood of the country and must have been noted by the YELTSIN campaign. (OMRI 5/20, 22, 6/3, FT 5/20)
MOSCOW BOMB SERIOUSLY INJURES VICE MAYORAL CANDIDATE: A powerful car bomb exploded in Moscow on June 7 critically injuring VALERY SHANTSEV, running mate to Moscow Mayor YURI LUZHKOV. The bomb raised the fear of electoral violence one week before the first round of elections. Although no suspects have been identified, the mayor's office described the incident as an assassination attempt by opponents designed to force the postponement of the mayoral election, which occurs the same day as the Presidential election. (NYT 6/8, Washington Post 6/8, OMRI 6/10)
WILL THERE BE FRAUD? Throughout the weeks leading up to the election, all sides have alleged massive fraud will occur by their opponents. A former Yeltsin official and election expert ANATOLY SOBYANIN predicted that up to 20% of the vote will be fraudulent. Sobyanin believes overstated voter turnout will be used by local election officials to benefit the president. According to Sobyanin tallies will be written in pencil and changed on the way to the regional level. To counter this, the Communists are planning to send tens of thousands of observers to the polling places to monitor elections. The true contest, says Moscow Tribune writer JOHN HELMER is between ZYUGANOV's 200,000 poll watchers and YELTSIN's 10-20 million votes that may be fabricated. (Moscow Tribune 5/25,29)
But CATHERINE BARNES of the American-based International Foundation of Electoral Systems (IFES), which has been advising the CEC, says cheating will only occur on the very local level. Systematic cheating will not occur because the process is being so closely followed. (interview 6/5)
FEDERATION COUNCIL CALLS FOR CALM: The Federation Council passed a resolution asking candidates and their voters not to let the "rise of social tensions split society." It called on all sides to respect the will of the people no matter who wins the election. (OMRI 6/6)
II. If June Presidential Election, Who Wins?
A. Individuals' Estimates
% chance of winning the presidency
| Graham Allison | Matthew Lantz | Sergei Grigoriev | Moscow Futures Traders' | ||||
| Bets1 (May 31, 1996) | |||||||
| Yeltsin | 45% | Yeltsin | 44% | Yeltsin | 55% | Yeltsin | 36.5% |
| Zyuganov | 42% | Zyuganov | 43% | Zyuganov | 45% | Zyuganov | 26.6% |
| Yavlinsky | 8% | Yavlinsky | 5% | Yavlinsky | 6.85% | ||
| Lebed | 5% | Zhirinovsky | 4% | Zhirinovsky | 6.0% | ||
| Lebed | 3% | Lebed | 4.5% | ||||
| Fedorov | 3.5% | ||||||
| Gorbachev | 2.89% | ||||||
1 Betting began on the Moscow Stock Exchange on 4/22. Speculators can purchase futures contracts indicating the % of vote they expect a candidate to receive in the first round. Izvestiya 6/4)
B. Recent Events Involving Presidential Candidates:
BORIS YELTSIN: Yeltsin Comeback: All major polling organizations in Russia show President Yeltsin making significant gains on Communist front-runner, GENNADY ZYUGANOV. While polls in Russia are notoriously inaccurate, the fact that all polls show this trend signifies a great improvement for the incumbent president. (For most recent polls, see Section III) Yeltsin Signs Chechen Cease Fire/Visits Chechnya: In a remarkable turn of events, President Yeltsin and Acting Chechen President ZELIMKHAN YANDARBIYEV met in the Kremlin on May 27 to sign a cease- fire in the 17 month long Chechen war. The document called for a ending of hostilities at midnight on May 31 and a prisoner exchange within two weeks after that. Issues of Chechen independence were left for future negotiations. Both leaders overcame previous conditions that prevented talks. Yandarbiev, like his predecessor JOKAR DUDAYEV, refused to speak with the Kremlin while Russian troops were on Chechen territory. Yeltsin overcame his pledge not to negotiate with "bandits." Yandarbiev apparently recognized the advantage of negotiating with Yeltsin during the presidential campaign. At the signing ceremony Yeltsin stated, "We have solved the key problem to peace in Chechnya." (various sources 5/24-28)
Following the ceremony, Yeltsin boarded a plane the next day and made an unannounced six hour trip to Chechnya. Yandarbiyev was not previously aware of the impending journey. While in Chechnya, Yeltsin visited troops at the Grozny airport and a town in Russian-occupied territory. He told the soldiers, "You have finally won" and promised money to rebuild the region. The dramatic trip fulfilled a campaign pledge to visit the war-torn region before the election. (various sources 5/29)
Yeltsin declared a public discussions on a power-sharing treaty will begin in June. The draft of the treaty grants Chechnya special status in the Russian Federation, although what special powers it will receive are not mentioned. The draft says Chechnya and Russia will share responsibility for foreign and economic policy and border control. (Rossiiskaya gazeta 5/31; OMRI 6/3)
Yeltsin Campaign Releases Manifesto: The long awaited 127-page document entitled "Russia: Individual, Family, Society, State" echoes the radical liberal rhetoric of 1991. It vows to complete economic reform, rewrite the tax code, compensate swindled investors, strengthen the social welfare system, and introduce a modern professional army. In it Yeltsin explains, "As president I know better than most how difficult life is for you at the moment. I feel all your pain, all the country's pain. However, I am sure that this is the pain of a recovering organism." He claims in the statement to have pulled Russia back from the brink of catastrophe and toward a definitive future. He takes credit for the multi-party democracy, the foundation of a liberal market economy, keeping Russia's territorial integrity in tact, and reintegrating Russia with the world. (FT 5/31, NYT 6/1)
CIS Leaders Endorse Yeltsin: At the CIS Summit in Moscow on May 17, the leaders of the countries of the former Soviet Union declared their continued support for economic and political reforms and for Boris Yeltsin's reelection campaign. Azeri President HEIDAR ALIEV called on Russian voters to make the right decision. Uzbek President ISLAM KARIMOV declared Zyuganov was unacceptable. The leaders rejected moves to restore the Soviet Union. The Communists labeled the leader's endorsements of Yeltsin as interference within Russia's internal affairs. (Financial Times 5/18-9, Boston Globe 5/18, OMRI 5/20,21)
Yeltsin Abolishes Conscription: In what could be a potential big vote winning move, President Yeltsin decreed the gradual abolition of obligatory military service by the year 2000. Yeltsin instructed the government to develop plans including changes to the 1997 budget to attract volunteers into the military. He also decreed that only volunteer forces would serve in combat areas. The military draft is especially unpopular because of the war in Chechnya. The decrees are a dizzying reversal of previous policy. Earlier, Yeltsin had vetoed Duma efforts to keep draft terms short. (FT 5/17, OMRI 5/17, NYT 6/2)
Yeltsin on the Military: Speaking to the military's top brass, Yeltsin explained Russia must ensure its military security despite a decrease in world tensions. He condemned NATO expansion saying that the West was trying to '"reinforce its world leadership." Yeltsin also called for military reform to adjust to the new strategic situation. Instead of hundreds of divisions that exist only on paper, Russia needs "a few dozen divisions made up of entirely professionals." Finally, the President called for a strong nuclear deterrent. (OMRI 5/30)
Promises, Promises: Much of Yeltsin's campaign strategy has consisted of cultivating the image of the kindly Czar. As he campaigns from region to region, he arrives claiming he's come with full pockets and proceeds to hand out gifts like a ward boss. He criticizes his own government leaving the impression that he has been left in the dark and has come to set things straight. Here are a list of some of the promises Yeltsin has made while on the campaign trail:
Chechnya: promised to end fighting and spend trillions of rubles on rebuilding. Military Conscription: promised to abolish by 2000. Supplemental Payments to the Elderly: promised to double to a maximum of $30 a month in addition to the $14 monthly pension. Home Ownership: promised easier loans to buy homes. Coal Miners: promised trillions of rubles in support to end strikes in January. Savings: promised to compensate those who lost their savings through the hyper-inflation of 1991-92. First payments go to war veterans, invalids, and elderly. Farmers: promised to halve electricity costs and write off farm debt of more than Rb23 trillion. Back Wages: used trillions of rubles from the IMF loans to correct wage arrears. Students: promised scholarships for science students, and better pension plans for teachers. Research: promised Rb2.8 trillion for R&D in defense sector. North: promised to subsidize children's holidays and build retirement homes in the south for miners in the frozen north.
"We do not have a record of all the promises anywhere," one official said. Government officials are concerned about the costs of the promises. "We are on the brink of a financial crisis," said Economics Minister YEVGENY YASIN. He stated that to pay all the wage arrears before the election is unrealistic. Yeltsin ordered the Central Bank to release one billion dollars to pay for the campaign pledges. The bank grudgingly did so, despite inflationary concerns and fears the action might provoke the IMF. (Moscow Times 5/25, Kommersant Daily 5/27, OMRI 5/17, 5/27, Washington Post 5/27, Moscow Tribune 5/29, FT 6/6)
Effective Yeltsin Television Campaign: The Yeltsin campaign launched a series of 15 spots that highlight how people's lives have improved under the Yeltsin regime. The advertisements, which do not feature Yeltsin, have testimonials from average Russians explaining that now they have freedom and choice. The ads end with the words, "I love, I believe, I hope, B. N. Yeltsin." Yeltsin's free air time has also featured testimonials as opposed to the President himself. In one an Olympic biathlon winner says he fainted from hunger in Soviet times. Former Finance Minister BORIS FEDOROV, in a mea culpa, admits the biggest mistake of reforms was that no one explained them to the people. He then goes on to endorse the President. Kommersant Daily stated the television campaign had been effective and was connecting with the people by using the man on the street approach. (Washington Post 5/23, OMRI 5/27,30, Kommersant Daily 5/29, NYT 6/2)
On the offensive against the Communists: Yeltsin economic advisor ALEXANDER LIVSHITS charged on May 23 that the Communists had not sufficiently explained their economic platform. He challenged them to further explain their economic plans "so that a normal person will know if he can live in peace." He labeled the Communist pledge to keep multiple forms of property meaningless "since both the US and the Stalinist- era Soviet economy could be described as this." (OMRI 5/24)
In the Yeltsin-backing Ne Dai Bog! (God Forbid!) newspaper, ZYUGANOV's speeches were compared to Hitler's in Mein Kampf. In an article entitled "Zyug Heil" the paper claimed Zyuganov stirs up hatred and extremism in his campaign. (FT 5/31)
Presidential Aide GEORGY SATAROV warned that the Communists no longer believe they can win and are preparing to take power by illegal means. He believes falsification is possible in the regions because many local CEC's are controlled by the Communists. Communist Campaign Manager VALENTIN KUPTSOV, called this a provocative lie. (OMRI 5/31, 6/3)
Yeltsin's Brochure Answers Frequently Asked Questions About Health and Postponement: In a series of campaign propaganda, Yeltsin answers 100 questions about himself and his government. (Answers are sometimes in first and sometimes in third person.)
Q: Is it true that you abuse alcohol? A: "To say yes would be untrue. To say no would not be convincing. The people will not believe it unless they check it themselves...So I will only say that I can drink, but that I do not abuse alcohol."
Q: They say the Kremlin is preparing some kind of armed measure in case Yeltsin in not reelected. A: "Yeltsin has no such plans. He is preparing his future work as the president...All talk about a coup that Yeltsin in preparing in event of his failure is a provocation. Yeltsin...will never become a coup maker. Yes, in 1991 he climbed up on a tank. Yes, in 1993 he ordered the storming of the White House. But all this was in defense of democracy and the authorities legally elected by the people. (OMRI suppl. 5/29)
Endorsements: Along with former Finance Minister BORIS FEDOROV, Yeltsin also has recently received endorsements from Nizhny Novgorod Governor BORIS NEMTSOV, and Gazprom officials. At the May 31 shareholders meeting, Gazprom adopted a resolution urging the reelection of Yeltsin. The Russian Orthodox Church is also covertly assisting Yeltsin. PATRIARCH ALEKSY II speaking in Tiblisi, GA said, "President Boris Yeltsin has played a great role in uniting the people. If the old regime comes back to power, the country will suffer new tremors." Abroad, in Wisconsin, German Chancellor HELMUT KOHL openly endorsed Yeltsin saying, "I do hope that the present President will win the election." Speaking at the same event, President BILL CLINTON echoed Kohl's sentiments, Yeltsin, "and the other forces of reform in Russia, it seems to me, represent the future, and we do hope the Russian people will vote for the future." (Washington Post 5/24, Kommersant Daily 5/27, NYT 5/30, Trud 6/1, OMRI 5/27,28, 6/3)
GENNADY ZYUGANOV (CP-RF): Zyuganov's Economic Plan Announced "Russia will control its economic destiny, stimulate growth of 9% per annum by the turn of the century, and provide social justice for all," says Zyuganov's economic plan, entitled From Destruction to Creation, Russia's Path into the 21st Century. The document contains a three stage program to revive the Russian economy by 2010: Stage 1 (by 1997) lowers energy prices to stimulate greater economic production; Stage 2 (from 1998-2003) will include targeted investment in manufacturing; Stage 3 (from 2003-2010 ) will be the development of Russia's post-industrial technical economy. The plan criticizes the current tight anti-inflation policies backed by the IMF for devastating Russia's industrial base and for prematurely exposing Russian industry to the world economy. The program envisions Russia spending its way out of agricultural and industrial decline and isolating the Russian economy from the world. Prices controls, heavy spending on the military- industrial complex, and more assistance for the needy is planned. The costs of the program will be funded by increased tax collection and by encouraging people to invest. The plan compares itself to FDR's New Deal. Western observers state the plan directly conflicts IMF conditions and has few details. (OMRI 5/27, Sovetskaya Rossiya, FT, Washington Post, Boston Globe 5/28, NYT 5/29, FT 6/10)
Speaking about economic realities, the incumbent Communist Duma Deputy and Economic Policy Committee Chairman YURI MASLYUKOV stated of his old organization, "Gosplan always knew what the country needed and where to get it...Gosplan was a great achievement in the principles of planning." He believes the organization only made strategic mistakes like stressing oil over high technology. (Washington Post 5/20)
Potential Communist Cabinet: Although Zyuganov has not officially offered any positions in a Communist cabinet, many newspapers are speculating on which advisors would fill which positions. Here are the names frequently heard:
| Prime Minister: | AMAN TULEEV (52) head of Kemorovo region legislature, also running for president (see below). | |||
| 1st Depty PM for Economy: | YURI MASLYUKOV (59) former head of Gosplan, Chair of Duma Economic Policy Committee (also potential Economics Minister) (see quote above). STANISLAV GOVORUKHIN film director and Duma Deputy (also potential Culture Minister). | |||
| Deputy PM: | NIKOLAI RYZHKOV (66) Former Politburo member, second in 1991 presidential race, Duma Deputy. PYTOR ROMANOV (53) Popular Siberian Factory Manager. ALEXANDER RUTSKOI (49) former Air Force General, hero of Afghanistan, former vice-president of Russia, against Yeltsin in 1993 events, head of Derzhava Movement. | |||
| Defense: | VLADISLAV ACHALOV (51) former Depty. Def. Min. of USSR Proclaimed Def. Min in anti-Yeltsin parliamentary uprising in '93. EDUARD BALATIN (60) former Black Sea Fleet Commander ('93-'96). GEN. ALBERT MAKASHOV Duma Defense Committee | |||
| For. Affairs: | YEVGENY PRIMAKOV (66) current For. Minister, head of KGB under Gorbachev. ALEXEI PODBEREZKIN (43) head of Spiritual Heritage Foundation, foreign policy advisor to Zyuganov. | |||
| Interior: | ANATOLY KULIKOV (50) current Interior Minister, formerly commanded Russian Forces in Chechnya. ALEXANDER GUROV (51) Retired police Major General, organized crime specialist, head of Security Fund. | |||
| Security Services: | VIKTOR ILYUKHIN (57) Chairman of Duma Security Committee, former deputy-Prosecutor Gen. of USSR, tried to indict Gorbachev, claims election fraud likely (see below). | |||
| Agriculture: | VASILY STARODUBTSEV (65) head of Agrarian Union, champion of collecitve farms and against ag. reform, 1991 coup supporter. | |||
| Justice: | SVETLANA GORYACHEVA (49) former USSR prosecutor, Deputy Chairwoman of Supreme Soviet 1990-93. VLADIMIR ISAKOV (47) Duma Deputy, head of Duma's Law Department. | |||
| Nationalities: | SERGEI BABURIN (37) fiery lawyer, allied to Ryzhkov, former co-chairman of National Salvation Front. | |||
| Press/Media: | VIKTOR ANPILOV (51) unreconstructed Marxist revolutionary, ex-journalist, leader of Working Russia party (a Stalinist political party which took 4.5% in 1995 Duma vote) (see quote below). | |||
| Foreign Economic Relations: | VLADIMIR SEMAGO, red businessman in entertainment industry. | |||
| State Property Committee: | IGOR BRATISHCHEV, Communist ideologist. | |||
One liberal Moscow paper, Moskovsky Komsomolets, when drawing up its likely list claimed it had intercepted a document calling for the establishment of a "politburo" under the title of "Highest Intellectual Council" which would exercise supervision over the executive and legislative branch to be headed by Communist hard-liner and Chief of the Election Headquarters, VALINTIN KUPTSOV. The paper speculates this council will be extra-constitutional. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 5/16, Moscow News 5/30-6/5, Economist 6/8)
Zyuganov's Media Campaign: Zyuganov's free media time has emphasized the moderate aspects of his views and his career. The spots show the candidate with his family, in an informal setting being interviewed on a park bench, and giving the viewers an informal tour of his hometown. He emphasizes his army career and his years as a teacher. He pledges to support everyone willing to work regardless of party memebership. He states his primary goals are professionalism and orderliness. "I want an average person to get on the street and not feel he has to look around for danger. I want him to get up in the morning and know that he will go to work and that there will be work." He also promises to support a mixed economy and not to renationalize privatized enterprises as long as they pay their taxes "honestly and properly. If you start taking things away tomorrow, then I can assure you the result will be turmoil worse than in Chechnya." Finally, he pledges that prosecution of political opponents will be prohibited by law if he is elected. "Proper democratic development is impossible without political competition and opposition." (OMRI 5/15, Washington Post 5/23, omri supl. 5/29)
Discord Within the Ranks?: Reports emerged in late May that disagreements developed within the Communist ranks as polls showed BORIS YELTSIN moving ahead of Zyuganov for the first time. Numerous Moscow papers reported that some of the factions within the Zyuganov coalition questioned the soft-sell approach that Zyuganov has taken so far in the campaign. At a strategy meeting on May 20, some factions refused to sign a document backing Zyuganov for president. Reports of Communist discord appear frequently in the liberal Russian papers trying to capitalize on the tension between moderates and extremists on the left. However, in this instance, both Zyuganov and Campaign Manager VALENTIN KUPTSOV publicly denied the rumors of discord. (NYT 5/21, Boston Globe 5/21, Washington Post 5/29, omri 5/22)
Unreformed Marxist and leader of the Working Russia party VIKTOR ANPILOV stated he still supports Zyuganov, but that Zyuganov's moves to the center were merely tactical. "Comrade Zyuganov, at least at the present time, is surrounded by supporters of market reform. Zyuganov personally is for individual labor without exploitation of man by man...If Zyuganov wins, we will support any step by the president toward reestablishing a society of social fairness and toward realizing the worker's power. If such steps don't follow, if the right manages to twist the new president to their side, we will continue our struggle." (Moscow Times 5/29)
Cheating Anticipated: Firing the opening volley in what has snowballed into a war of accusations, Duma Security Committee chairman VIKTOR ILYUKHIN predicted, "YELTSIN will be appointed for a second term, although Zyuganov will win...I think the results of the election will, in simple terms, be falsified. I think the president will not be elected, he will be named." Ilyukhin claimed that chairman of the CEC, NIKOLAI RYABOV is Yeltsin's man and does not intend to conduct an honest election. Ryabov called Ilyukhin's display "uncivilized" and promised the CEC would stay impartial. To confront the possibility of fraud, the Communists have pledged to have 200,000 individuals in the field observing the balloting and counting. (OMRI, FT, 5/23, Moscow Tribune 5/25, NYT 6/3, OMRI 6/5) Alliances Sought: As the presidential race become more and more a two man race, both leading candidates are seeking coalition partners for the second round. Zyuganov has made overtures to all members of the Third Force group: YAVLINSKY, FEDOROV, and LEBED. All of these candidates pledged to campaign through the first round and refused to join either Zyuganov or YELTSIN. Some journalists speculated Zyuganov's alliance moves were signs of increasing anxiety over Yeltsin's ever increasing poll strength (OMRI 5/31)
Zyuganov's Foreign Policy: Deputy Chairman of the Duma International Affairs Committee and foreign policy advisor to Zyuganov, ALEXEI PODBEREZKIN, spoke recently on the guidelines Russia should follow while implementing existing arms control agreements and negotiating new ones: 1) Russia should only implement agreements that bolster its security and propose amendments to existing treaties that no longer do; 2) Russia cannot offer to trade military concessions for political goodwill; 3) Russia must link arms control to the behavior of other states; 4) Russia can only spend modest sums on arms control. (OMRI 6/5)
Other common Communist foreign policy views include erecting projectionist barriers to protect industry, prohibiting Western cultural influences, considering breaking treaties "illegally signed," possible linking of START II ratification to NATO expansion, and rebuilding Russia from within. (Washington Post 5/30)
US Prepares for Zyuganov Eventuality: JIM COLLINS, the State Department official in charge of relations with the former Soviet Union says, "Worry and concern are not a policy. The question is what will the Communists do? If they pursue the kind of policies that deepen reform, we can work with them. If the choice is to abandon reform, then it will bring an adjustment in our policies." The State Department believes Zyuganov is unlikely to want to risk a major confrontation with the West. If conflict does emerge, it will likely be in economic not foreign policy goals. The Washington Post described this as the "Netanyahu strategy." (Washington Post 6/2)
Communists Plan for Chechnya: Zyuganov announced his plan for ending hostilities in Chechnya. He would convene a congress of the Confederation of Peoples of the Caucuses and would withdraw troops from areas with no fighting and blockade regions where military activity continues. (OMRI 6/6)
Tuleev to Withdraw Presidential Bid: In an anticipated move, Kemerovo Oblast legislative head, AMAN TULEEV announced his intentions on ORT to suspend his candidacy and endorse Zyuganov. Tuleev had long planned this move. He is not expected to formally withdraw from the race in order to avoid paying back his federal election funds (OMRI 6/7)
GRIGORY YAVLINSKY (YABLOKO): Yavlinsky and Yeltsin alliance fails for the time being: Yavlinsky met with YELTSIN for a second time in two weeks in mid-May, yet the two presidential candidates could not agree on an alliance. Yavlinsky announced he would continue to campaign as an independent candidate in the first round.
Izvestiya printed the full text of the letter Yavlinsky gave to Yeltsin in their May 16 meeting. It included a number of non-negotiables in order for Yavlinsky to support Yeltsin. These included: 1) ending the was in Chechnya; 2) significant changes in economic policy; 3) decrees on economic and defense policy must be signed by the president and the prime minister; 4) resignation of the Prime Minister, 1st Deputy Prime Minister, Defense Minister, and the Chief of Staff. (Izvestiya 5/18)
On the campaign trail, Yeltsin stated a shakeup of some personnel might be useful and stated his beliefs were not far from Yabloko's. He also stated he had offered Yavlinsky the position of 1st Deputy Prime Minister, but Yavlinsky would only accept the Prime Minister position. On Russian TV, Yavlinsky denied seeking the position of Prime Minister for himself and denied issuing an ultimatum to Yeltsin. (OMRI 5/17,20, Boston Globe 5/18-20, NYT 5/18,19, Moscow Times 5/28)
Yavlinsky's Program: Entitled "I Chose Freedom," it explains Yavlinsky's plans for the first 730 days if he is elected. Yavlinsky would stop the war in Chechnya within 100 days; halt Yeltsin measures to rebuild the Chechen economy and organize the relocation of all who want to leave the area, and decide Chechnya's status by referendum. From November 1996 to April 1997, Yavlinsky would increase the minimum wage three times, average government salaries two times, average pensions twice, and aid for children five times. The later months of the plan will include tax, banking, and land reforms, as well as full economic union within the CIS. Yavlinsky anticipates prosperity will come to Russia within 10-15 years. (OMRI 5/14)
Yavlinsky's Propaganda: Yavlinsky's campaign literature stresses his background as opposed to his economic plan. It tells of early jobs such as a mail carrier and winning the Ukraine junior boxing championship in 1968. It states Yavlinsky worked for the coal industry ministry and learned his economics from the ground up, which he applied to help design his plan for a gradual economic transition. The back of the brochure has endorsements of famous democrats like YELANA BONNER and SERGEI KOVALEV. (OMRI supl. 5/22)
His TV campaign has had a montage of postcards from real people writing him words of hope and encouragement. When speaking he does not make a pitch for his candidacy, but emphasizes how important the presidential vote is. (Washington Post 5/23, NYT 6/2)
On the Campaign Trail in Samara: Yavlinsky claimed he was confident he could win the election despite what the polls say, "if people are not afraid to vote for him." He claims 18% of those polled say he is the candidate that they would most like to see in power. News coverage of Yavlinsky's campaign has not been so much critical as dismissive. (OMRI 5/31)
Yavlinsky Urges Voters to Vote Against Stupidity: "Every vote cast for the democratic opposition will be a vote for the termination of war, a vote for freedom in Russia, a vote for the limitation of stupidity in Russia, a vote for the reduction of ZHIRINOVSKY's influence, and a vote for the people to have an influence on authorities...If BORIS YELTSIN wins, the oligarchic, monopolistic, criminal, and corrupt regime will grow stronger." (FT 6/7,8)
VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY (LDPR): Overtures to Zyuganov: On May 29, Zhirinovsky offered to form an alliance with ZYUGANOV and LEBED. He and Lebed would help Zyuganov win in the first round in exchange for the positions of Prime Minister and Defense Minister. He then went on to say the trouble with Communists is that they do not want to form a bloc with anyone and do not tolerate opposition. "However, Zyuganov still has time to fall on his knees before me and Lebed."
On June 3, Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky met. Both candidates explained they did not talk of forming an alliance in the first round, but held open the possibility in the second. (OMRI 5/30, 6/4)
TV Statements on Communists: Despite his overtures to ZYUGANOV, Zhirinovsky used his May 23 free air time slot on Russian TV to appeal to rank and file Communist voters and criticize the Moscow leadership of the Communist party. He praised the ordinary party members and promised if elected he would stem the anti-Communist feelings within the country. He reminded viewers he supported the 1991 coup and fought to secure amnesties for the coup-plotters. (OMRI 5/25)
Zhirinovsky on the West: In his free airtime on May 22 on ORT, Zhirinovsky blamed the West for Russia's decline. President BILL CLINTON is Russia's main enemy; he accomplished what Hitler could not. He claimed the Clinton was out to destroy Russia and was responsible for the war in Chechnya. Zhirinovsky labeled Russia's opponents as the US, NATO, Turkey, and China. He urged closer ties with Libya, Iraq, Iran, India, and central Europe. He warned that NATO expansion would soon have troops near Smolensk and would "swallow up the territory of Russia." In June he warned citizens of the Baltics, to "jump in the sea and start swimming." (OMRI 5/23, Boston Globe 6/6)
Appeals to the Humiliated Nation: Zhirinovsky's June 5 TV spot promised to end policies carried out at the expense of Russians. "Today, we Russians live worse, are poorer, and we die sooner. We have fewer rights. The majority of children at the train stations are who? Russians; The majority of dead soldiers are who? Russians; The majority of girls walking the streets in Europe are who? Russians; The majority of scientists who have left? Russians; The majority of teachers and doctors who aren't paid their salaries? It is primarily in the Russian regions. It's a war against the Russian people." Despite the strong rhetoric, this monologue was not said in Zhirinovsky's customary emotional style. A majority of his campaign has been low-key. (NYT 6/2, OMRI supl. 6/7)
The Need for a Czar: In a radio address on May 14, Zhirinovsky stated Russia needs an "emperor...a president with huge powers similar to those of the czars or General Secretaries...Russia is an empire. It cannot be a humiliated republic with a rotten democracy, a declining economy, and a weak army." (OMRI supl. 5/16)
ALEXANDER LEBED (DPR/KRO): KRO drops Skokov for Lebed: In an extraordinary move, the Congress of Russian Communities (KRO) abandoned its leader, YURI SKOKOV and replaced him with its more nationalist founder DMITRI ROGOZIN. Skokov was blamed for the party's the low numbers in the December Duma election and for placing himself above Lebed on the ticket. KRO is again backing Lebed in the presidential election. In response, Lebed sent a telegram thanking KRO for its support and promised to back steps to strengthen the Russian state, unify the people, and reduce the threat of civil war. (Nezavisimaya gazeta 5/28, OMRI 5/27)
Lebed's Platform: Lebed released a document defining eight strategic tasks for Russia including preserving the country's unity; filling the treasury; ending the war in Chechnya; taking steps to prevent environmental disasters; reorganizing and cutting the state bureaucracy; and preparing a referendum on private land ownership. Lebed hopes to appeal to the 60% of the Russian voters who are against both the reds (ZYUGANOV) and whites (YELTSIN). (OMRI 5/15,21)
Lebed's Propaganda: Lebed's colorful flyer on high-quality glossy paper shows the candidate in casual clothes with his wife. Inside Lebed proposes order for the state by getting rid of bureaucrats who are "democrats in the morning, communists at lunch, and patriots in the evening." He promises also to free the economy from those who just view reforms as a way to make a profit. Lebed's economic program promises to give the economy to millions of small property holders while reducing taxes. He also says, "There really should have been only one unit fighting in Chechnya, a unit comprised of the sons of the Kremlin leaders...Weak people conduct wars, the strong do not let them happen." (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 5/23, OMRI supl. 5/25)
MIKHAIL GORBACHEV: Why is Gorbachev Running?: A number of articles in the West point out that although Gorbachev has no chance of winning the presidency, he is campaigning for another reason: to restore his name and his place in history. Gorbachev disdains that the two forces that drove him from power ( the Communists and Yeltsin ( are the front-runners in the election. When asked which he will back in the second round, he declares neither, it is a choice between bad and worse. Gorbachev's campaign program is general and has no prominent figures in his campaign. (NYT 5/17, FT 5/18-19, Washington Post 5/26, Russia Review 6/3)
SYVATOSLAV FEDOROV Proposes Unity Government: On May 16, famous eye-surgeon and Ross Perot-type figure Syvatoslav Fedorov met with YELTSIN to sell the idea of a national unity government. The government would be formed between the first and second rounds and would include representatives of all major factions campaigning in the election. He offered himself for Prime Minster. "We need a government of people's confidence to be formed on an honest basis and to pool together everyone including Communists, capitalists, and centrists." (FT 5/16, OMRI 5/16, supl. 5/22)
Economic Views: Speaking in Kemerovo Oblast, Fedorov called for the economy to be organized into "private workers collectives" in which workers would manage their own enterprises. Fedorov argues labor output under such a system would increase by a factor of ten. Taxes paid by the collectives would be used to help the elderly and poor. (OMRI 5/17)
Clinic Forced to Close: The eye surgery center, which gave Fedorov his fame, was forced to close due to financial problems. The city of Moscow claimed it had received no money from the Moscow City Mandatory Insurance Fund, which pays for many of the procedures at the clinic. Eleven other branches of the clinic throughout Russia were not effected. Fedorov claimed the clinic was closed because of his campaign. Fedorov uses the clinic as a model for his "private workers' collectives" idea for Russian business. (OMRI 5/21)
III. Polling Results For Presidential Election:
Polls in Russia are notoriously unreliable. They often use a small sample size, are weighted toward pro- reform areas, are conducted over the phone ( which are only owned by the well-off, or just receive false information from the electorate. Polls should only be used to judge general trends in the Russian political scene.
A. Polls Assessing Popularity of Candidates:
NUGZAR BETANELI, director of the Institute for the Sociology of Parliamentarianism, stated his latest poll shows Yeltsin catching Zyuganov. Betaneli attributed Yeltsin's success to his recent return "to the needs and hopes of the voters." Betaneli's polls interview a larger sample than other polls and have recently shown, in the face of other polls predicting a Yeltsin resurgence, Zyuganov continuing his significant lead over Yeltsin. The latest poll had both Yeltsin and Zyuganov tied at 36% a piece. (FT, OMRI 6/4)
The Public Opinion Foundation's latest poll has:
| Yeltsin 34% | (last week 29%) |
| Zyuganov 22% | (last week 24%) |
| (FT, Boston Globe 5/31) | |
| In Moscow Yeltsin leads 49% to 11% | |
| In the country-side Zyuganov leads 30% to 24% | |
| (Washington Post 6/9) |
The ROMIR polling organization predicts up to an 80% voter turnout. Its latest poll has:
| Yeltsin | 31% | (last week 32%) |
| Zyuganov | 27% | (last week 25%) |
| (Moscow Times 5/28, Boston Globe 5/27, OMRI supl. 5/22) | ||
The All-Russian Center for Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM)'s poll has in the second round:
| Yeltsin | 50% | (3 weeks prior 37%) |
| Zyuganov | 37% | (3 weeks prior 31%) |
| (Moscow Times 5/28) |
The Public Opinion Fund's latest poll conducted of 1519 individuals from May 11-12 has:
| Yeltsin | 32% |
| Zyuganov | 28% |
| Yavlinsky | 18% |
| Lebed | 14% |
| Fedorov | 10% |
| (Moscow Tribune 5/25) |
A Moscow Times/CNN poll conducted by the Institute for Comparative Social Research (CESSI) of 1058 individuals conducted from May 9-14 found:
| Yeltsin | 27.7% | |
| Zyuganov | 19.3% | |
| Yavlinsky | 9.2% | |
| Lebed | 5.5% | |
| Zhirinovsky | 4.3% | |
| undecided | 20.0% | |
| (Washington Post 5/19, OMRI suppl. 5/22) |
B. Other Polls:
A poll by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Policy (VTsIOM) asked how voters got their news of the election:
60% of Russians get their news from TV
18% of Russians read a newspaper daily
17% responded that media coverage "has no influence on me."(NYT 6/2)
A poll by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Policy (VTsIOM) asked about the voters trust of President Yeltsin:
6% completely trust the President
23% basically trust the President
24% basically distrust the President
38% completely distrust the President.
(Washington Post 5/18)
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