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The Russian Election Compendium
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
April 8, 1996, No. 18
To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including "betting charts." Individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.
I. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June1
A. Betting Charts:
| Individual | Likelihood | Change From Last Month |
| Graham Allison (SDI Director) | 65% | +5% |
| Sergei Grigoriev (SDI Fellow) | 65% | +5% |
| Matthew Lantz (SDI Researcher) | 65% | +5% |
B. Events Affecting Likelihood of Elections in June:
POSTPONE THE ELECTION?: On March 20 some members of the Federation Council (upper house of parliament) called for postponement of presidential elections. Samara Oblast governor CONSTANTIN TITOV stated if the Duma did not reconsider its decision to denounce the Belovezh Accords,2 the upper house should postpone the elections. Moscow Oblast governor ANATOLY TYAZHLOV supported the proposal claiming "what kind of president does ZYUGANOV want to be, and of what country?" The Voroznezh Oblast governor and the Rostov governor also supported the move. However, only 46 members agreed to have the issue on the agenda. Eager to avoid being blamed for the movement, YELTSIN's representative on the Federation Council claimed, "Yeltsin had nothing to do with the proposal." Commenting on a possible election delay, Prime Minister, VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN declared any delay was impossible because it would plunge Russia into instability. (OMRI 3/20,25)
THE MEDIA AND THE CAMPAIGN: Central Election Commission (CEC) Head Calls For Reduced Free Airtime For Candidates: CEC Chairman NIKOLAI RYABOV called for free airtime for the presidential candidate to be reduced from thirty to ten minutes. He cited the fact that TV stations were still owed Rb50- 60 billion ($10-12 million) from the Duma campaign and that no provision in the 1996 budget existed to pay for the airtime. (OMRI 3/27)
Differences In Media Election Law: The media law for the presidential election will be similar to the Duma elections with two exceptions: First, TV has the right to hold as part of its free air time "at least two election debates, roundtables, or call-in hotlines." Second, any candidate has the right to use the pages of both government and non-government publications for campaigning if he pays the required fee. The remainder of the law remains the same: Free airtime will be given beginning May 14, with 30 minutes between 0700-1000 and 30 minutes between 1800-2300 weekdays. The candidate can buy additional airtime. Paid airtime cannot be in excess of what is available to them free of charge. Political advertisement cannot exceed 10% of the candidates total free and paid airtime. In a run-off, both candidates will be provided with additional equal airtime. (Kommersant Daily 3/26)
Independent Television Head (NTV) Defends Himself: IGOR MALASHENKO defended his decision to join President YELTSIN's campaign reelection committee, claiming it will not affect NTV's independence or reporting. He claimed his decision was not aimed at obtaining advantages for NTV or for himself; however, NTV expects to get permission to broadcast 24 hours in the near future. Neither head of the public stations ORT or Channel Two were asked to join the reelection committee. Malashenko's action was criticized by such diverse politicians as Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV and former Soviet President MIKHAIL GORBACHEV. (OMRI 3/28, Moscow Tribune 3/30)
ELECTRONIC VOTE COUNTING SYSTEM: The Vybory computerized vote counting system was tested in the presidential election in Tatarstan in late March. The experts who operated the system claimed the system ran perfectly and prevented election fraud. The vote count was completed within hours. In the December Duma elections, the "final preliminary" count was announced eight days after voting. Critics of the Vybory system fear the government could use the system to alter voting results. (OMRI 3/28)
TIMING OF REGIONAL ELECTIONS: In a potential disagreement with the executive branch, the Duma formally called for regional elections to be held the same day as the presidential elections. The Duma claimed some regional legislatures violated the constitution when they extended their terms in office by two years. In September, the YELTSIN administration announced a decree that would hold the regional elections in December of 1997. Most regional legislatures expire in 1996. The Central Election Commission recommends adhering to Yeltsin's proposal. (ITAR-TASS 3/13, OMRI 3/15)
ST. PETERSBURG MAYORAL ELECTIONS MOVED UP: By decree of the president, the elections for the mayor of St. Petersburg will be held on May 19, not on June 16 with the presidential elections. St. Petersburg's legislative assembly approved this change, but the Communist and Yabloko parties objected, claiming the earlier elections were designed to prevent their candidates from adequately organizing. The Deputy Mayor of St. Petersburg, VLADIMIR YAKOVLEV, announced he will run against Mayor ANATOLY SOBCHAK. Yakovlev claims Sobchak "speaks of democratic principles, but fails to act on them." He expects to be fired by Sobchak. (OMRI 3/14,21,29)
II. If June Presidential Elections, Who Wins?
A. Individuals' Estimates
% chance of winning the presidency
| Graham Allison | Matthew Lantz | Sergei Grigoriev | Moscow Times Oddsmakers | ||||
| (March 11, 1996) | |||||||
| Yeltsin | 25% | Zyuganov | 41% | Yeltsin | 50% | Zyuganov | 8-5 (63%) |
| Zyuganov | 23% | Yeltsin | 40% | Zyuganov | 50% | Yeltsin | 3-1 (33%) |
| Yavlinsky | 20% | Chernomyrdin | 10% | Chernomyrdin | 4-1 (25%) | ||
| Chernomyrdin | 10% | Yavlinsky | 5% | Yavlinsky | 11-2 (18%) | ||
| Zhirinovsky | 10% | Zhirinovsky | 2% | Zhirinovsky | 6-1 (16%) | ||
| Lebed | 5% | Lebed | 2% | No Election | 7-1 (14%) | ||
| Lebed | 8-1 (13%) | ||||||
| Nemtsov | 30-1 ( 3%) | ||||||
| Gorbachev | 0-1 ( 2%) | ||||||
B. Recent Events Affecting Outcome of Presidential Elections:
BORIS YELTSIN: Chechnya Peace Initiative: President Boris Yeltsin admitted publicly last month that his political future hinges on the resolution of the Chechen war. On March 31, in a televised speech to the nation, Yeltsin announced his long-awaited peace initiative. He conceded that his administration would be willing to hold discussions with Chechen leader DZHOKHAR DUDAYEV. He claimed he would be willing to discuss some form of autonomy for Chechnya within the Russian Federation short of outright independence. The Tatarstan model may be used. Prime Minister VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN, who is less objectionable to the Chechens, will lead the effort for a settlement. Russian troops will be withdrawn, albeit only from areas already secured, and amnesty will be granted to most Chechen fighters. In a skillful political move, Yeltsin declared the Communist-controlled State Duma will decide which Chechens should be granted amnesty. This decision will be politically risky as the Duma will not want to appear to block the peace plan, but also will not want to pardon too many. Issues such as final troop withdrawal and independence remain undecided, so the president's initiative may only be a stop-gap measure for short-term political gain. For other presidential candidate's responses, see below. (NYT, FT 4/1-2)
Reaction to Communist Duma Vote on Dismantling the USSR: President Yeltsin criticized the Duma resolution disavowing the Belovezh Accords as scandalous and unconstitutional. "I will allow no attempts to undermine Russian statehood and destabilize the country." Yeltsin accused the Communists who sponsored the resolution of trying to torpedo the June presidential elections. This in turn raised fears that Yeltsin himself might cancel the elections and dismiss the Duma. Presidential Advisor YURI BATURIN conceded that the option had been discussed and then quickly dismissed as too dangerous and provocative. Instead, Yeltsin asked the Duma to approve a bill confirming the validity of Russia's laws and international obligations. (FT 3/16, OMRI 3/21)
Reunification Issues: Attempting to outmaneuver the Communists and Nationalists on the reunification issue, Yeltsin announced a series of agreements with states of the former Soviet Union on voluntary reunification. The most significant of these was between Belarus and Russia. On April 2 the presidents of these two countries signed a treaty before the public in the Kremlin that calls for further cooperation between Belarus and Russia. The treaty will establish a Community of Sovereign Republics (SSR)(this acronym is not official) which will include supranational bodies covering military, environmental, and technical fields. It envisions a common currency by 1997 with a single budget and constitution to follow. However, the agreement also calls for the countries to keep their separate flags and remain sovereign states. In late March, 30,000 Belarussians demonstrated against the proposed union. However, Belarus President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO denied a referendum on the issue was required in his country. (Moscow Times 3/17, Boston Globe 4/3, Financial Times 3/25, 4/3, OMRI 4/3,4)
Land Reform: In another political move aimed at undermining Communist support in the regions, President Yeltsin decreed that 40 million landowners would have the right to buy and sell property. With the decree, land will become a tradable commodity for the first time since 1917. Yeltsin hopes to give Russian peasants a personal reason to embrace reforms. Communist and Agrarian Party responses were strongly negative. Agrarian Party Duma Deputy NIKOLAI KHARITONOV claimed Yeltsin "has taken over one of the most important issues in Russian life and just decided that nobody but him would have a say in how it is resolved." (FT 3/22, NYT 3/23)
Yeltsin Campaigning Themes: First Deputy Prime Minister OLEG SOSKOVETS outlined the campaign themes for Yeltsin's presidential reelection bid: economic growth with greater social support, strengthen Russian statehood, fight crime, and emphasize how government activities promote stability. Yeltsin was to unveil these themes in a speech on April 6. (ITAR-TASS 3/11, OMRI 3/11, 19) Yeltsin Campaign Organization: A number of organizations are working on Yeltsin's reelection campaign. The organization likely to become the predominant group is the All-Russian Movement of Public Support for Boris Yeltsin (ODOP) (nice acronym.) This group will be led by presidential aide VIKTOR ILYUSHIN and former Chief of Staff SERGEI FILATOV. Staffing and responsibility in the group will include: former Press Minister SERGEI GRYZUNOV (press relations), Chief of Staff NIKOLAI YEGOROV (regional work), President of the "Politicka" Fund VYACHESLAV NIKONOV (pre-election analysis), SERGEI FILATOV (public relations and in charge of People's Houses).
Other individuals involved in the Yeltsin reelection campaign include: Prime Minister VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN, presidential confidant and bodyguard, ALEXANDER KORZHAKOV, FSK Director MIKHAIL BARSUKOV, Deputy Prime Minister YURI YAROV, Independent Television President IGOR MALASHENKO, and Yeltsin's daughter, TATYANA DYACHENKO. Parties working in the Yeltsin reelection campaign include Our Home is Russian (NDR), Reforms-New Course, Union of Realists, and Duma-'96.
The Yeltsin campaign will organize in the regions using a combination of regional governor support, Our Home is Russia offices (actively numbering about 40), and 50 People's Houses, which originated in pre-revolution Russia and served as a clearing-house between authority and society. They are meant to offer an alternative to the 100,000's of Communist obkoms and raykoms which help the party work directly with the population. (Kommersant Daily 3/13,23, OMRI 3/21,25)
Questioning Presidential Regional Initiatives: Presidential Advisor LEONID SMIRNYAGIN claimed reformers had little support in the regions. Reform support was strong in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but these cities have little influence over regional capitals, which are now more influenced by conservative rural areas. He also stated that regional elites are weak in their ability to influence attitude of local public opinion. Governors of Russian areas are weaker than leaders of Russian republics because republican leaders are involved in political dispute resolution, while governors are mostly economic managers. (Rossiiskie Vesti 3/29)
Signature Collection and Questions: Campaign Manager SERGEI FILATOV announced the Yeltsin campaign has already collected 8 million signatures. However, these signatures were collected by 13 independent groups and were not allowed to be pooled. To correct this, the campaign said the effort would be coordinated under VLADIMIR KOMCHATOV, the presidential representative in the Moscow Oblast. On April 4, Yeltsin supporters submitted the required 1 million signatures and the Central Election Commission formally registered Yeltsin as a candidate. Yeltsin at the time declared his income for 1995: Rb27 million ($5600), down from Rb552 million ($114,000) in 1994 when he earned royalties for his autobiography.
The Duma held hearings investigating Yeltsin signature gathering techniques. Speaking before the Duma, Deputy Prosecutor General VLADIMIR DAVYDOV claimed evidence existed that the presidential administration had forcefully collected signatures ( especially in the railroad and telecommunications industry. As a result, the signatures collected by force would be thrown out, but Yeltsin will not be banned from the race. (OMRI 3/14,15, Nezavisimaya Gazeta 3/23, Boston Globe 4/4, OMRI 4/4)
Democrats Rally to Yeltsin: A number of reformers are concluding that their only option in the upcoming election is to support Yeltsin's reelection bid. Recently dismissed First Deputy Prime Minister for the Economy ANATOLY CHUBAIS announced that he would support his former boss. "A ZYUGANOV victory would lead to bloodshed in Russia." EDUARD ROSSEL, governor of Sverdlovsk Oblast, swallowed his differences with Yeltsin and urged centrists and democratic forces to back Yeltsin. Democratic Russia leaders LEV PONOMAREV and GLEB YAKUNIN also threw their support to Yeltsin. Former Russian Prime Minister YEGOR GAIDAR and his party, Russia's Democratic Choice, have yet to announce who they will back. (FT, NYT 3/29, OMRI 4/4)
Yeltsin Defends Institute of Presidency: Yeltsin spoke out against Communist desires to amend the Constitution. "Russia is used to having one person and some sort of vertical power structure ( a strong hand that cannot only talk, but act." He rejected parliamentary rule for Russia claiming it cannot solve anything "because no one is responsible." (OMRI 3/15)
Yeltsin Offers Corruption Initiative: Yeltsin announced that the government will crack down on civil servants who have abused their positions on the board of directors of partially privatized companies. Later this year civil servants holding these positions will be replaced by professional managers who will represent state interests on these boards. (FT 3/15)
Cossack Support: The leader of the Russian Cossacks called for his ethnic group to support President Yeltsin's reelection bid because Yeltsin helped to restore the Cossacks as a social group within Russia. 5-7 million votes could result from the endorsement. (OMRI 3/22, NYT 4/4)
Potential Presidential Slogan: "YAVLINSKY means civil strife; ZYUGANOV means civil war; ZHIRINOVSKY means world war." (Kuranty 3/20)
GENNADY ZYUGANOV (CP-RF): Duma Initiative to Restore Soviet Union: On March 15, by a vote of 250-98, the State Duma passed a Communist-sponsored resolution that renounced the Supreme Soviet's decision of December 12, 1991 to abrogate the Soviet Union. They then passed by a vote of 252-33 (5 abstentions) a resolution affirming the legal force of the March 17, 1991 vote to preserve the USSR (71% of the population voted to retain the Union at the time). Furthermore, the resolution asserted that the Soviet Union continues to exist. All measures were non-binding. The Communist, Agrarian, and People's Power blocs all supported the initiative, while Our Home is Russia and Yabloko voted against the resolution. The voted provoked critical reaction both in Russia and abroad (for domestic Russian reaction see individual candidates). US Secretary of State WARREN CHRISTOPHER called the vote highly irresponsible, prompting Communist Duma Speaker GENNADY SELEZNEV to declare that Christopher's statement "crudely interfered in the internal affairs of Russia." Georgian President EDUARD SHEVARDNADZE described the vote as "stupid" and canceled his meeting with Seleznev. (FT 3/16, Boston Globe 3/17, OMRI 3/18, 3/22)
The strong reaction seemed to surprise the Communist leadership, which quickly began damage control. Zyuganov explained the restoration of the Soviet Union would only occur voluntarily. He claimed President YELTSIN had blown the vote out of proportion. Party Ideologist ALEXANDER SHABANOV later conceded the vote was ill-timed and had backfired. (NYT 3/22)
A week later Izvestiya ran a story on how the vote came to pass. Apparently, the Communist Party Executive Committee made the decision in Zyuganov's absence. The Council was chaired by VALENTIN KUPTSOV, one of the leaders of the party, who believed that Zyuganov's moderate policies were dividing the party. The action was later presented to Zyuganov as a fait accompli. Zyuganov, wisely, had sought to hold off such vote until after the June election. (Izvestiya 3/26)
On the Chechnya Peace Initiation: Zyuganov declared his support for President YELTSIN's peace initiative, but claimed the president was merely repeating old initiatives from the Communists and the plan should have been implemented earlier. (NYT, FT, OMRI 4/1) Zyuganov Charm Offensive: In an effort to soften the image of the Communist party and its leader,
Zyuganov, for the March 8 International Women's Day holiday, shared a more personal side with the public. He frequently buys his wife roses (red perhaps?); he likes team sports; and gave a recipe for Zyuganov potatoes. "The name of our party should not frighten anyone...our party differs greatly from the CPSU. We recognize different forms of property, pluralism of views, and freedom of religion. (FT 3/8)
Signatures and Funds: Zyuganov became the first candidate to be registered by the Central Election Commission. His campaign received a government check for $31,000 (Rb150 million) and will receive an additional $10,000 (Rb50 million) later in the campaign. Zyuganov also declared his income as mandated by election law. He earned Rb17 million ($3450) in 1994 and Rb30 million ($6088) in 1995. He donated Rb9 million ($1826) to the Communist party over those two years. With the exception of Rb3 million ($608) in book royalties, Zyuganov's sole source of income is his Duma deputy salary. (FT 3/8, OMRI 3/14, Moscow Times 3/25)
Zyuganov Platform: At a March 17 rally in Moscow before a crowd chanting "Soviet Union!, Soviet Union!", Zyuganov unveiled much of his party's campaign platform. If elected, the platform guarantees all citizens the right to work; increased wages and pensions; compensation for those whose savings were eroded by inflation; an end to the war in Chechnya; and the establishment of a state monopoly over trade in goods of strategic significance. He denounced the Belovezh Accords but promised not to threaten the sovereignty of Russia's neighbors if elected. The speech did not include the words "Communism", "Leninism", or "nationalization". (OMRI 3/18?, NYT 3/18?, FT 3/18)
Communist Economic Plan: The Communists in the Duma have prepared a draft law based on their economic priorities. The emphasis relies on government intervention to boost industrial production. It would abandon strict IMF guidelines and impose tariffs to insulate Russian firms from foreign competition. The private sector would be strictly regulated. The ownership of land would be banned, with the exception of small garden plots. Profits in private industries would be limited. Prices of industrial and agricultural products would be regulated. A comprehensive social safety net, reminiscent of Soviet times, would be created with rent and utilities not costing more than 5% of the income of the lease-holder. Families of retired servicemen would obtain free housing. Employment for university graduates would be guaranteed in their chosen field. Western programming could constitute only 20% of all TV programming. Foreign investment would still be welcomed, but foreign companies would not be allowed to purchase land, natural resources, or energy complexes. To pay for this program, the Communists admit monetary control would be loosened and export tariffs on oil and gas would be reimposed. (Back in the ole' USSR!) (NYT 4/5)
The Economist Takes on Communist Economic Priorities: "If the Communists pursue in government an economic course at all resembling the one they are advertising, the results will be disastrous. The state will find itself accepting an open-ended liability to refloat a manufacturing sector that has shrunk horribly since 1991 and which will sink ever deeper if sheltered from competition. It will be promising welfare payments and societal benefits that cannot possibly be afforded. It will be choking off foreign trade and emptying shops of imported goods in order to oppose a topsy-turvy domestic price system. It will see domestic capital fleeing, and foreign capital never arriving. And the central government will find itself in conflict with the more prosperous and progressive cities and regions, whose leaders have acquired substantial political and economic authority in recent years that they will not easily relinquish." To meet his promises, Zyuganov will be faced with the choice of pushing ahead at whatever cost by printing money and using Stalin-like means to put down consequent public unrest, or he will revert to the current economic reforms. The saddest aspect is that the worst is over. If he sat and did nothing, he could take credit for the forthcoming recovery, but the burden of history and ideology will be too great. (The Economist 3/16)
Secret Communist Plan? Retired General VALENTIN I. VARENNIKOV, former commander of Russian ground forces and 1991 coup plotter stirred up controversy for the Communist Party when he declared that he was not worried about Zyuganov's slide to the social-democratic middle because the party has a clear unpublished plan ( a maximum program ( to put into place after the election. This comment sparked a flurry allegations against and denials by the Communists. Zyuganov called the statement a slip of the tongue. (NYT 3/22)
Zyuganov on the Regional Campaign Trail; Barnaul, Siberia: In one of his first significant campaign speeches, Zyuganov took his moderate speech normally reserved for foreign audiences and tested it on a group of regional supporters. He justified a moderate amount of economic liberalism by referring to Lenin's NEP. He embraced the church by citing that Stalin had the Orthodox Patriarch bless the Red Army in World War II. "I told my party members religious rights must be guaranteed." He reassured his audience that his victory would not mean that they would lose their private garden plots and dachas. "I know if we start taking something away we will have a civil war on the streets of Moscow." He claimed he would allow privatization as long as it is productive and operating honestly. He insinuated YELTSIN's drinking problem by stating, "A bus driver cannot go to work without a medical exam, but now a person can rule the entire country in any condition." He also denounced the invasion of Western culture. (NYT 3/27)
Media Bias? Zyuganov frequently complains the Russian press is biased against him. During his trip to Siberia, this accusation held true. He was followed by 14 journalists, only one of which was Russian ( a 24- year old reporter for the small news agency RSA-Novosti. His speech in Barnaul was not covered on state- controlled TV or NTV, and no mainstream newspapers reported on the trip. ITAR-TASS only ran a short bulletin. When asked why his paper did not cover the campaign swing, Izvestiya Managing Editor, IGOR GOLEMBIOVSKY replied first, the paper had no reporters in the region; second, Zyuganov does not like the liberal Izvestiya reporters; and third, "We are not interested in it. As a leader and as a person, we've already got his number." The unintended result of this media neglect is that Zyuganov is not held accountable for his statements which sometimes take liberties with the truth. (NYT 3/31, Washington Post 4/3)
Unifying the Left: VIKTOR ANPILOV, leader of the Stalinist Worker's Russia party reversed his earlier statement and endorsed Zyuganov for president. This endorsement was accompanied by STANISLAV TEREKHOV's, leader of the Union of Officers Party. Finally, former Vice President and leader of the Derzhava movement ALEXANDER RUTSKOI also announced his support for Zyuganov because the people chose the Communists in December. (ITAR-TASS 3/18)
Zyuganov on Free Speech and Social Democrats: The Moscow Times reported that Zyuganov does not feel critics of the Soviet Union should necessarily be protected by free speech. He bemoaned the massive anti- Stalinist brainwashing. According to NTV, Zyuganov also stated that "Social-democracy of the Western European style has no chance in Russia." Zyuganov denied the making the statement. (Moscow Times 3/25, OMRI 4/1)
Zyuganov on Foreign Policy: Zyuganov claimed he might abrogate some of the treaties "illegally signed" by Russia. He did not name which ones, but it is known he is unhappy with ethnic Russian treatment in Estonia. He also declared "maximum openness to the West and East but with active support and protection of the internal Russian market." As for Russia's interests, "Everything that is connected with the territory of the former Soviet Union falls within the area of our vital interests." (OMRI 3/20,28)
Communists Fare Poorly in Regional Elections: In the local legislature elections in the Altai Krai, the CP- RF lost 10 seats in the 50 seat assembly in March 31 elections. This disappointing showing came despite a recent visit by Gennady Zyuganov. The Communists will now hold approximately the same number of seats as the reform forces of Our Home Is Russia and Yabloko. The Liberal Democrats and Russia's Choice failed to win any seats. The remainder of the legislature consists of independents. (OMRI 4/3)
Yea, Right: In an interesting claim, Zyuganov accused the YELTSIN administration of dirty election tricks and claimed foreign satellites could break into Russia's electronic vote counting system and falsify vote tabulations. He therefore is seeking a manual vote count. (Moscow Tribune 3/30)
GRIGORY YAVLINSKY (YABLOKO): On the Chechnya Peace Initiative: Yavlinsky has been one of the harshest critics of the government's Chechnya policy. In the week before the YELTSIN speech, he accused the Russian president of genocide. When asked to described the peace plan, Yavlinsky stated, "This looks more like a bunch of promises with a political purpose than a concrete, workable plan." Earlier in the month, Yavlinsky had declared whoever puts an end to the war would be a king. He announced his own plan with immediate negotiations between the two sides under two conditions: the Dudayev side would immediately cease terrorist acts, and the federal side would pull out its forces. The fate of the Chechen Republic, according to Yavlinsky, will be determined by the people living there, either through arms or through a referendum. (NYT 4/1, Nezavisimaya Gazeta 3/15)
Anti-Communist Yavlinsky: In his most anti-Communist speech to date, Yavlinsky stated, "If the Communists come to power, things will only get worse." The party would jeopardize freedom of speech and private property. He quoted from the Communist program, "the aim of the Russian Communist party is the Communist future of the whole of mankind." Yavlinsky believes Zyuganov will win if nothing significant changes, As for the others, Yavlinsky stated Zhirinovsky would give a gift to the establishment and withdraw right before election day. Yavlinsky also stated he would withdraw his candidacy in favor of another qualified aspirant to the Kremlin, he mentioned Nizhny Novgorod governor BORIS NEMTSOV, who has declined to run. Without such a candidate, he will continue to run. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 3/15, OMRI 3/14)
Reformists back Yavlinsky Candidacy: ELENA BONNER, wife of Andrei Sakharov, Human Rights advocate SERGEI KOVALEV, democrat ELLA PAMFILOVA, and ARKADY MURASHEV have formed a committee to back Yavlinsky's presidency bid as an alternative to YELTSIN's. They claim he has the best chance to defeat the Communists. (OMRI 4/2)
VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY (LDPR): Top LDPR Aide Quits: ALEXANDER VENGEROVSKY, former Deputy Duma Speaker and Zhirinovsky's top aide voluntarily left the LDPR. Vengerovsky had been shot in the knee last month. He is the last of a string of LDPR advisors to quit recently, including: VIKTOR KOBALEV, who ran Zhirinovsky's successful 1993 campaign, and VIKTOR USTINOV, then Chair of the Geopolitics Committee. (OMRI 3/22)
Zhirinovsky Offends: Typical Zhirinovsky "pranks" this month include a change of tune on American presidential candidate PAT BUCHANAN. After Buchanan distanced himself from last month's Zhirinovsky endorsement, Zhirinovsky stormed, "You turned out to be just like Clinton and other corrupt politicians, moved by greed and vanity, not by love for the fatherland." The official letter said, "Pat, you're a piece of crap. You dumped in your pants immediately after getting my congratulations." (Moscow Tribune 3/25)
ALEXANDER LEBED (KRO): On the Chechnya peace initiative: Lebed responded to the President's Chechnya announcement with skepticism. He claimed YELTSIN was responsible for the Chechen fiasco in the first place and the new plan was "profanity on the eve of the election." He was also dubious of the Duma's responsibility for determining which Chechen fighters deserved amnesty. This idea "attempts to turn the deputies into fools, while the president keeps his hands clean." (OMRI 4/1)
He later accused YELTSIN of betraying the Russian soldiers and having killed hundreds of troops only to sue for peace four days later. He urged Yeltsin to push for military victory which appears to be very close. "Doubts can only exist before the beginning of a war...We are fighting not so much for a specific territory but for Russia's national dignity. Russia must announce to the world it will never retreat again." and ARKADY MURASHEV have formed(OMRI 4/4)
The Constitution According to Lebed: Lebed denounced attempts to "ape the West" and argued Russia does not need an elected parliament, NTV reported on March 30. Instead, Lebed called for a small, highly professional Duma that would be formed by the president. (Politburo, anyone?) He also suggested the president should submit to a yearly popular referendum and resign if he fails to gain the voter's support. The views were announced at the Democratic Party of Russia's conference, which later endorsed Lebed's candidacy. (Kommersant Daily 3/28, OMRI 4/1)
Lebed's Support: Lebed claims he has collected 900,000 signatures without the support of his former party, KRO. He is searching for financial assistance, and it appears a number of firms and banks are willing to help. In return, Lebed promised to his potential supporters that he would not initiate a process of destroying the financial system that has emerged. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 3/27)
THIRD FORCE (LEBED, SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV, YAVLINSKY): New Alternative Presidential Group Evolving: The Third Force Group, which stalled as a center-left force in early March, regrouped with a smaller circle of potential leaders. The original leaders could not agree on a leader or a platform and suffered defections such as ALEXANDER RUTSKOI to the Communists.
On March 15, eye surgeon and presidential candidate SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV announced he had conducted high-level discussions with ALEXANDER LEBED and GRIGORY YAVLINSKY on forming a single bloc as an alternative to Zyuganov and Yeltsin. He promised a joint statement in the near future on "the Brezhnev-Stalinist socialism of the Communists and the wild west capitalism of Yeltsin." He claimed the group would announce its one candidate by May 15, and that the candidate might be determined by a primary-type system among their supporters in the regions. ITAR-TASS reported Lebed was in favor of such a system, Fedorov was leaning toward it, while Yavlinsky was skeptical of it.
On March 16 the three presidential candidates released a statement on the Duma's denunciation of the Belovezh Accord. The statement argued, "1. The accord was ratified by the Supreme Soviets of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, all of which had a Communist majority. The responsibility for the breakup of the Soviet Union rests not only with the leaders of the republics, but equally with the Communists. 2. While advancing ill-conceived proposals, the Communist Party pushes Russia...to the verge of political chaos. Neither Yeltsin nor Zyuganov...has the right to run the country or deserves to lay claim to the post of Russian president. 3. We urge the State Duma to reject all attempts to denounce the Belovezh Accords...and embark instead on creating a legal framework for genuine economic integration." The document was signed, Lebed, Fedorov, Yavlinsky. According to Fedorov, the group is now drawing up a joint economic and political platform to be released soon. (OMRI 3/6,28, Nezavisimaya Gazeta 3/15,20, Moskovsky Komsomolets 3/16)
MIKHAIL GORBACHEV: On the Stump in St. Petersburg: Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, despite continual poor showings in the polls, claimed he had the required one million signatures to register as a candidate. He stated voters need a third alternative to YELTSIN and ZYUGANOV. Gorbachev also did not rule out cooperation with SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV's Third Force or with YAVLINSKY. (OMRI 3/21)
Gorby Turns Up the Heat: Back in Moscow, Gorbachev vigorously attacked President YELTSIN accusing him of using illegal means to retain power. Gorbachev believes creating an election committee consisting of serving government officials breaks the law. He also stated having the chief of Independent Television serve on the president's reelection committee abolishes freedom of the press. He further claimed he had conducted talks with Third Force and would be willing to step aside for a stronger candidate. (Moscow Tribune 3/30)
Signatures submitted: Gorbachev's campaign submitted 1.4 million signatures to the Central Election Commission and will be officially registered on April 14 or 15 claimed ITAR-TASS. (Boston Globe, 4/5)
III. Polling Results For Elections:
A. Polls assessing popularity of candidates:
The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll assessing the popularity of the presidential candidates. The poll was reported in the Moscow Tribune on 3/30 and OMRI on 4/2.
| mid-March | early April | |
| Zyuganov | 25% | 25% |
| Yeltsin | 15% | 18% |
| Lebed | 8% | 10% |
| Yavlinsky | 11% | 9% |
| Zhirinovsky | 9% | 9% |
| Sv. Fedorov | 7% |
The Independent Institute for Societal and National Problems (ISNP) and Nezavisimaya Gazeta released a poll assessing the popularity of the presidential candidates. The poll was reported in the Moscow Tribune on 3/30
| February | March | |
| Zyuganov | 16.4% | 25.8% |
| Yeltsin | 10% | 17% |
| Yavlinsky | 12.6% | 12.9% |
The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll of 1596 individuals conducted from March 5-13, 1996 on the popularity of the presidential candidates. The poll was reported in the Kuranty on 3/26 and OMRI 3/27.
"Whom of the following politicians would you not like to ever see as President of Russian?" (Answers given taken from those who have decided to vote. {65%})
| Jan. | Feb | March | |
| 1. Zhirinovsky | 49% | 49% | 59% |
| 2. Yeltsin | 43% | 40% | 39% |
| 3. Zyuganov | 14% | 21% | 26% |
| 4. Lebed | 9% | 8% | 12% |
| 5. Yavlinsky | 6% | 4% | 6% |
| 6. Sv. Fedorov | 4% | 2% | 5% |
| Hard To Say | 8% | 8% | 11% |
The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll comparing the popularity of Zyuganov and Yeltsin in a head-to-head race. The poll was reported in the Financial Times on 3/25 and OMRI 3/21.
| Zyuganov | Yeltsin | |
| March: | 37% | 29% |
| February: | 39% | 27% |
| January: | 41% | 21% |
The Institute for Comparative Social Research, The Moscow Times, and CNN polled 1170 respondents from March 10-18 on the popularity of presidential candidates. The poll was reported in the Washington Post on 3/21.
| Zyuganov | 19.1% |
| Yeltsin | 14% |
| Yavlinsky | 6.2% |
| Zhirinovsky | 4.9% |
The RAMIR-agency released a poll on the popularity of presidential candidates. The poll was reported in the Boston Globe on 3/18.
| Zyuganov | 26% |
| Yeltsin | 17% |
| Yavlinsky | 9% |
| Zhirinovsky | 7% |
The Industrial Institute of Social and Ethnic Studies conducted a poll of 2000 individuals which included the option of voting for "Against All Candidates" ( a category that will appear on both rounds of balloting. In order to win the election in the second round, a candidate must attain more votes that the total votes cast against both candidates. The survey found that almost none of the candidates who make it to the second round would receive more votes than "against all candidates." Reported in Moskovsky Novosti No. 11, March 12-24.
Voting in second round:
| Zyuganov/Yeltsin | 32% | - | 25% | 36% against all |
| Yeltsin/Zhirinovsky | 28.5% | - | 14% | 50% against all |
| Zhirinovsky/Zyuganov | 11% | - | 34% | 47% against all |
| Lebed/Yeltsin | 28% | - | 24% | 39% against all |
| Yavlinsky/Zyuganov | 34% | - | 29% | 31% against all* |
| Yavlinsky/Lebed | 35% | - | 25% | 32% against all* |
| Yavlinsky/Yeltsin | 35% | - | 20% | 37% against all |
* Yavlinsky defeats "against all" and would become president.
B. Other Polls:
The Interfax news agency released a poll on April 3 showing that 62% of the 1600 Russians questioned believed the first thing they wanted their candidate to do if election was to end the war in Chechnya. The war displaced crime and was ahead of the economy as the main concern among Russians polled March 22- 27. The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4%. (Boston Globe 4/5)
A poll by the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) reported in the Moscow Tribune found less than a third of the population support the Duma's March 15 denunciation of the Belovezhsk treaty that dismantled the USSR. 40% of those polled rejected the Duma action.
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