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The Russian Election Compendium
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
March 7, 1996, No. 17
To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including "betting charts." Individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.
I. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June
A. Betting Charts:
| Individual | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison | 60% | +10% |
| Sergei Grigoriev | 60% | |
| John Lloyd | ||
| Matthew Lantz | 60% |
B. Events Affecting Likelihood of Elections in June:
CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC): Signature Collection: The CEC announced there are 54 groups currently approved to collect signatures on behalf of presidential candidates. Of these, eight groups are working for President Yeltsin and two for General Alexander Lebed; the remaining 44 are collecting for individual candidates. One million signatures are due to the CEC by April 16. The Communists have already submitted 1.4 million signatures. Despite the large number of groups collecting the signatures, the CEC does not expect a large number of candidates to meet the one million signature requirement. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/21, 2/28)
On Yeltsin and His Candidacy: CEC head, NIKOLAI RYABOV, stated that President Yeltsin could remain in office as he campaigned, but warned on no account could he "use the advantages of his position." (OMRI 2/17)
THE MEDIA AND THE CAMPAIGN: NTV vs. the Kremlin: Independent Television complained last month that it was being deliberately excluded from the Kremlin. The Kremlin press spokesman called the complaint a publicity stunt and said press is invited to Kremlin events in turns - it simply was not NTV's turn. However, he did say, the Kremlin reserves the right to “pursue a tough line” if the network persists in criticizing the President. (NYT 2/14)
State TV Head Fired: President Yeltsin fired the head of the State TV, OLEG POPTSOV, because of the station’s continuing critical coverage of Chechnya. "I have already told them that lying is unacceptable, and that everything has to be done properly," said Yeltsin. (NYT 2/16)
Free Campaign Airtime?: State media leaders want the Central Election Commission to specify who will compensate them for giving free airtime to presidential candidates. They claim they have not been reimbursed for the December Duma elections. Some are also recommending that TV and radio campaign broadcasts be staggered so candidates will not have to compete against one another. (OMRI 2/28, Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/28)
II. If June Presidential Elections, Who Wins?
A. Individuals' Estimates
% chance of winning the presidency
| Graham Allison | Matthew Lantz | Sergei Grigoriev | Moscow Times Oddsmakers | ||||
| (Jan. 1996) | |||||||
| Yeltsin | 24% | Zyuganov | 33% | Yeltsin | 50% | Yeltsin | 40% |
| Yavlinsky | 20% | Yeltsin | 26% | Zyuganov | 50% | Chernomyrdin | 33% |
| Zyuganov | 15% | Chernomyrdin | 14% | Zyuganov | 29% | ||
| Lebed | 10% | Yavlinsky | 12% | Yavlinsky | 20% | ||
| Chernomyrdin | 10% | Zhirinovsky | 10% | Lebed | 13% | ||
| Zhirinovsky | 5% | Lebed | 5% | No Election | 13% | ||
| Zhirinovsky | 10% | ||||||
| Dark Horse | 6% | ||||||
B. Recent Events Affecting Outcome of Presidential Elections:
BORIS YELTSIN: Yeltsin Announcement Speech: Boris Yeltsin announced his bid for reelection in his home town of Yekaterinburg on February 15. Prior to the speech, the Kremlin, in a move reminiscent of the Brezhnev era, claimed it was deluded by letters from factory owners, farmers, worker groups, and cultural heroes imploring Yeltsin to run. It also declared some of the biggest oil and gas companies were backing Yeltsin. During the speech, Yeltsin forgot his host's name, belittled four Western heads of state, and made an off-the-cuff pledge to pay wage arrears within the next month (cost: $2.8 billion). Yeltsin declared himself the only presidential candidate offering a safe, centrist balance between radical market reformers and revanchist Communists. He also attempted to prove his toughness by ordering the sacking of various factory directors. In the end, Yeltsin's spending offers amounted to $300 for every Russian. (FT 2/8, 2/16, NYT 2/15)
Chechnya: In an unusually candid statement, Yeltsin said of Chechnya prior to his announcement speech, “If we withdraw the troops, we will turn Chechnya into a slaughterhouse; if we do not remove the troops, there will be no way I can become president again. We must find a compromise.” Yeltsin failed to offer his promised solution to Chechnya in his annual State of the Federation address. Instead, he claimed he was "ready to negotiate with any political forces interested in the establishment of peace in Chechnya. But we will not make a deal with bandits behind the backs of the legitimate government in Chechnya." (NYT 2/8, Izvestiya 2/24)
The State of the Union: Yeltsin gave his overtly political 50 minute State of the Federation speech on February 23 to both houses a parliament assembled at the Kremlin. Highlights: Political freedom has taken hold in Russia. Economic reform is beginning to show results - he cited low inflation and productivity growth in some sectors. However, the people have run out of patience with the current economic situation. He blamed the government for this and threatened, "The government will either carry out its duty to defend the social and economic rights of the people or another government will do it." Yeltsin also emphasized the need to stop crime and corruption. Finally, in foreign affairs, Yeltsin offered that Russia faces no military threats for the first time this century, but geopolitical realities can still go wrong, especially the eastern expansion of NATO. Responding to the speech, Communist party leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV claimed a third of the speech had been taken from the Communist program. (various sources, NYT 2/24)
Yeltsin election strategy: Yeltsin's campaign strategy is becoming clear according to VITALY TRETYAKOV, editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The immediate goal will be to poll higher than Zyuganov by April. This will make other candidates appear as also- rans, and allow money to flow into the Yeltsin campaign. Once Yeltsin achieves front-runner status, he will gain the support from reformists as the only realistic candidate who can stop the Communists. Yeltsin will attempt to remain above the political debates of the others and will not directly confront them. He will sell himself as the only leader with the experience to handle the job. His international contacts and world leader role will also be emphasized. The mistakes of Yeltsin's administration will be admitted and blamed on subordinates, and relief will be promised to those most hurt by reform. A serious attempt to resolve the Chechnya and unpaid wages issue will be made. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/17, 2/20)
Yeltsin and the Democrats: Portraying himself as the only feasible candidate who can beat the Communists, Yeltsin declared to the democrats, "You have no other choice but to support me...There is nobody else." Yeltsin has already gained the support of former Finance Minister BORIS FEDOROV and Women of Russia leader YEKATERINA LAKHOVA. Even former Prime Minister YEGOR GAIDAR, after declaring that he under no circumstances would support the President, is now waffling. "It is hard to imagine after what’s been happening for the last year and a half, how we could support Yeltsin...At the same time, it is quite clear that if the price of our withdrawing support (from Yeltsin) is another Communist experiment in Russia, we must support him." (Washington Post 2/29, Moscow Tribune 2/29)
Foreign Support: Foreign leaders are subtly expressing their support for Yeltsin. French Prime Minister ALAIN JUPPE and German Chancellor HELMUT KOHL both held meetings with Yeltsin in February where the Western leaders expressed support for the Russian government and its policies of economic reform. US President BILL CLINTON, while not formally endorsing any candidate, threw his support behind the $10 billion IMF loan for Russia, which was later granted and is expected to help Yeltsin. (Izvestiya 1/13, OMRI 2/20, FT 2/29)
Power Within the Presidential Apparat: Yeltsin confidant ALEXANDER KORZHAKOV is losing influence with the President according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The article claimed Yeltsin is angry at Korzhakov's scorched-earth policy applied to Chechnya. New Chief of Staff, NIKOLAI YEGOROV, is becoming an "independent and weighty figure." (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/23)
Belarus Reunification: Seeking to steal some of the Communists' and Nationalists' thunder, Yeltsin met with Belarussian President ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO to discuss voluntary unification issues. Yeltsin called for a union during his presidency. The move caused one Moscow paper to respond, "only the blind" could fail to see that the cause of integration is being used "as a bargaining chip in presidential elections." Rumors have emerged in Moscow that Yeltsin might use reunification with Belarus to call for a new constitution and therefore postpone elections. (OMRI 2/29, Izvestiya 2/29)
Yeltsin's Health: Yeltsin's health remains an important component of the presidential election process. The Washington Post published an article on the Russian President’s health explaining that the world knows he has heart disease, but little else. Yeltsin's medication is not known, nor why he appears puffy at times. He has likely had at least one heart attack, but apparently has had no diagnostic tests or by-pass surgery. The article questions why Yeltsin's ailments have not been aggressively treated. (Washington Post 2/20)
GENNADY ZYUGANOV (CP-RF): The Communist Party Conference: On February 15, the Communist Party nominated its leader Gennady Zyuganov as the party's presidential candidate. In his acceptance speech, Zyuganov claimed Russian "citizens - through the fault of the democrats - have only three rights: to steal, to drink, and to be responsible for nothing." He claimed the CP-RF was a party of deeds not words, and that ritual party events would be cut in the future. Assessing the conference, the Financial Times claimed there was little pomp, sparse applause, and that Zyuganov failed to excite his followers. (Kommersant Daily 2/14, 2/16, FT 2/16)
Communist Party Platform: At the conference, Zyuganov claimed the party would “be confronted with hard labor and enormous responsibilities." The party's priorities will be to fight corruption by having civil servants declare their incomes, to combat terrorism by creating a new special anti-terrorism military unit, and to assist those with low incomes by increasing social spending. The party advocates public control over state radio and TV and protection of Russia against the "insidious infiltration of foreign TV." In foreign policy, the CP-RF seeks to strengthen ties between Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union. The party may also seek constitutional amendments to enhance the power of the parliament relative to the executive branch. Kommersant Daily stated the greatest challenge for the Communist leader will be to deliver on all of his promises if he gets into office. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/9, Kommersant Daily 2/10, 2/14, NYT 2/16)
United Communists: One of the primary goals of the Communist Party Congress was to unify the various left leaders behind Gennady Zyuganov. The Congress had some success; over 150 parties and associations are expected to join a coalition of popular, patriotic, and leftist forces to support Zyuganov’s candidacy. Included in this group will be Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN and former Prime Minister NIKOLAI RYZKHOV. Of the three other leaders that could draw Communist support away from Zyuganov, Krasnoyarsk factory director PETR ROMANOV withdrew his candidacy, Kemerovo Oblast governor AMAN TULEEV claimed he would run and then likely withdraw in the future for Zyuganov, and hard-line Communist leader VIKTOR ANPILOV claims he will withhold support until the CP-RF makes the recreation of the Soviet Union a priority. Zyuganov received the support of a number of patriotic movements including STANISLAV TEVERKHOV’s Union of Officers and SERGEI BABURIN’s Russian Public Union. These endorsements came at the expense of GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED. (OMRI 2/13, 2/23, 2/27, Kommersant Daily 2/7, 2/16, FT 3/5)
Signatures: The Communists have collected 1.4 million signatures for Gennady Zyuganov. (1 million are needed to register a candidate.) The signatures were submitted to the Central Election Commission. (OMRI 2/13)
GRIGORY YAVLINSKY (YABLOKO): The Campaign: The Yavlinsky campaign has run into difficulties according to an article in Kommersant Daily. The party has talked of moving its campaign headquarters to St. Petersburg, where the party performed strongest in the last elections with 16% of the vote. However, even this number was down from 19% in 1993. The campaign is unorganized and at one point signature collection had to be halted because of faulty forms. The Yabloko Vice Speaker seat in parliament remained unfilled for over a month because the position had been promised to too many members. Although Yavlinsky has worked with other democratic groups, the article claims this is because he does not want to be perceived as a spoiler, not because he seeks their cooperation. (Kommersant Daily 2/10)
Yavlinsky and Gaidar: Yavlinsky stated in a TV interview that he is willing to hold talks with Russia's Democratic Choice leader YEGOR GAIDAR. Previously, the two largest democratic parties had held secondary level talks, but the wills of the two leaders had prevented significant progress. When asked if he was willing to cooperate with Yavlinsky, Gaidar responded, "I am ready to cooperate with Yabloko." (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/6)
Yabloko and Yeltsin: Yabloko party members claim that Yavlinsky will not support Yeltsin under any circumstances, and any rumors to the contrary are not true. Such rumors likely originate, according to party leaders, from the Kremlin, which is concerned because Yavlinsky is Yeltsin's most serious threat and has the greatest chance of uniting democrats against him. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/23)
Why Yavlinsky Runs: Despite recent falling popularity ratings, Yavlinsky claims, "I am absolutely convinced that most of our country's citizens do not want the Communists to return to power and do not want to go on living like they are today. Russia should not have to choose between bad and very bad. It is degrading." (Moscow Times 2/29)
VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY (LDPR): Campaign kickoff: Ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky kicked off his presidential campaign by celebrating his 25th wedding anniversary. With a flair for the dramatic, he promised a sea of vodka to his supporters who attended the ceremony. He arrived in a horse-drawn troika. Small coins and candy were thrown to the crowd, which consisted of as many curious as faithful. (FT, NYT 2/12)
Zhirinovsky and LePen: French nationalist leader, JEAN-MARIE LePEN, attended the wedding ceremony and later held discussions with Zhirinovsky. Zhirinovsky stated, "We think our meeting will be the start of cooperation between two European patriots who fight for the defense of our national riches." (Washington Post 2/11)
Zhirinovsky and NATO: Zhirinovsky recently warned against NATO expansion threatening, "Our neighbors must know that if they let NATO approach Russian borders, Russia would destroy both NATO and the territories that are putting the world to the brink of war." (Washington Post 2/11)
Zhirinovsky Offends: Typical Zhirinovsky "pranks" this month include sending a message of congratulations to FIDEL CASTRO for shooting down civilian planes approaching Cuba. Zhirinovsky labeled the action "a victory over the American carrion crows." Earlier in the month he also sent a congratulatory message to PAT BUCHANAN calling him "a brother in arms." (OMRI 2/27, NYT 2/23)
LDPR Establishes Branch in US: According to party sources, the LDPR gained approval from the American Department of Justice to establish party office #5054. Only Russians will be allowed to join. The party's role will be to promote LDPR programs to US audiences. (Kuranty 2/16)
Top LDPR Aide Shot: ALEXANDER VENGEROVSKY, former Deputy Speaker of the Duma and top Zhirinovsky aide was shot in his knee while walking his dog near his home in Moscow. No suspects have been arrested. Vengerovsky is currently head of the Subcommittee for Intelligence and has been investigating mercenary activity in Chechnya. His personal finances have also been under investigation. (OMRI 2/13, Boston Globe 2/13)
ALEXANDER LEBED (KRO): Serious split in KRO: The discord within the Congress of Russian Communities (KRO) is getting more serious. KRO leader YURI SKOKOV has apparently ordered Lebed evicted from KRO offices and cut off from KRO funds. He also has ordered regional KRO offices to stop collecting signatures for Lebed. Lebed claims the actions have cost him 100,000's of signatures and has urged party members to display political courage and to continue collecting signatures for him. Lebed has joined the People’s Power group in the Duma (KRO is not in the Duma) and has held meetings with the leaders of Third Force (see below). The journal Russian Review estimated that Lebed leaving KRO will not cause significant political damage to the leader because the party is weak and disorganized politically. (Russia Review 2/26, Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/28, Moscow Times 2/29)
THIRD FORCE (LEBED, SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV): New Center-Left Group Initiated: Following the CP-RF nomination of Gennady Zyuganov, a confidential group of center-left forces met to discuss the possibility of offering a center-left alternative to Zyuganov and Yeltsin. Attending the meeting were ALEXANDER LEBED (KRO), SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV (People’s Self Government Party), VALERY ZORKIN (Supreme Court Judge) ALEXANDER RUTSKOI (Derzhava), STANSISLAV GOVORUKHIN (Democratic Party of Russia), SERGEI GLAZYEV (KRO), SERGEI BABURIN (Russian Public Union), and ALEVTINA FEDULOVA (Women of Russia). The goal of the group, called Third Force, is to prevent the Party of Power from gaining reelection. The loose agreement emerging from the meeting was that all parties within the group can seek the presidency, however, by May 15 all candidates will drop out in favor of one candidate for the group - likely Lebed or Fedorov. No official documents were signed because of current differences between the member parties, but the group hopes to overcome these differences in the future. (Kommersant Daily 2/24, OMRI 2/28)
UNITED DEMOCRATS: United Democrats Meeting: The long awaited meeting of democratic forces occurred on February 23. Attending were ELLA PAMFILOVA (Duma Deputy), GALINA STAROVOITOVA (Democratic Russia), IRINA KHAKAMADA (Common Cause), YEGOR GAIDAR (Russia’s Democratic Choice), ANATOLY CHUBAIS (Former First Deputy Prime Minister), VLADIMIR LYSENKO (Republican Party), SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV (People’s Self Government Party), and ALEXANDER YAKOVLEV (Social Democratic Party). BORIS FEDOROV (Forward Russia!) could not attend because of a television commitment. GRIGORY YAVLINSKY was invited and did not attend. Our Home is Russia did not attend because of fear of scaring the smaller parties. The event was chaired by SERGEI FILATOV, a coordinator of the Yeltsin campaign, but his role in the Administration was not stressed. The participants concluded it was best to support one candidate which would be decided in April. The participants drafted a non-binding document against the threat of "new totalitarianism." All participants, including the absent Yavlinsky, agreed to sign the document. The next step for the group is to form a program for Russia. The last stage will be to nominate a candidate. (Kommersant Daily 2/24, OMRI 2/27)
Pankov's Advice to the Democrats: Kuranty columnist ANATOLY PANKOV advised the democrats, "Please, democrats, forget about it (unity), you have lost these elections. Swallow your pride. Don't let your ambitions help Zyuganov or a third force (Zhirinovsky) to win. Alas, this is the time of Boris Nikolaievich (Yeltsin)." Pankov claims although Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov both would be acceptable alternatives to Yeltsin, neither will run without Yeltsin’s consent. (Kuranty 2/13)
OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (NDR, CHERNOMYRDIN): Party Congress: The Prime Minister's party gave its "full and unequivocal support” to Russian President BORIS YELTSIN. To the disappointment of some at the conference, Chernomyrdin categorically ruled out the possibility of running for president. This may cause dissension within the "Party of Power." LYUDMILA NARUSOVA, the wife of St. Petersburg Mayor ANATOLY SOBCHAK, expressed this unrest by stating this action put the party in the awkward position of supporting a different person than the one it supported in the Duma elections. She claimed many would not be inspired to collect signatures for Yeltsin. Signature collect had already begun for Chernomyrdin. She also pointed out NDR is just one part of the Yeltsin campaign. VLADIMIR BABICHEV was named Chair of the NDR Executive Committee and GENNADY SHIPILOV will be his deputy. (Sevodnya 2/4, Kommersant Daily 2/24)
MIKHAIL GORBACHEV: On March 1, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev announced his intentions to seek the presidency. With no party structure and less than 1% support among the public, his candidacy is not considered serious. Yet, he will likely get the one million signatures to appear on the ballot. (FT 3/2, NYT 3/4, Boston Globe, 3/4)
III. Polling Results For Elections:
A. Polls assessing popularity of candidates:
The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll of 1600 respondents in 60 towns on the popularity of the presidential candidates. The poll was reported in Kommersant Daily, The Moscow Times, and Moscow Tribune on 2/29:
A. In the first round voting:
(of people planning to vote)
| 1. Zyuganov | 24% |
| 2. Zhirinovsky | 12% |
| 3. Yeltsin | 11% (+2% from Jan.) |
| 4. Yavlinsky | 9% |
| 5. Lebed | 6% |
| 6. Sv. Fedorov | 5% |
(of all people)
| 1. Zyuganov | 18% |
| 2. Zhirinovsky | 10% |
| 3. Yeltsin | 8% |
| 4. Yavlinsky | 8% |
| 5. Lebed | 7.3% |
YURI LEVADA, VTsIOM director, claims Zyuganov could receive a maximum 35% vote.
Yeltsin could receive a maximum 30% vote.
Zhirinovsky could receive a maximum 18% vote.
B. In a second round run-off:
| Zyuganov vs. Yeltsin: | (Feb.) Zyuganov 39% | Yeltsin 27% |
| (Jan.) Zyuganov 41% | Yeltsin 19% | |
| Zyuganov vs. Yavlinsky | (Feb.) Zyuganov 37% | Yavlinsky 33% |
| (Jan.) Zyuganov 34% | Yavlinsky 36% | |
| Zyuganov vs. Zhirinovsky | (Feb.) Zyuganov 35% | Zhirinovsky 14% |
Vox Populi, a Moscow based think tank, released a list of Russia's most powerful politicians according to 50 political experts. Reported in the Moscow Tribune on 2/28. The top three politicians were:
1. Yeltsin
2. Zyuganov
3. Luzhkov
Local polling group Reliz in Yekaterinburg polled individuals in the region just before Yeltsin's reelection announcement. Reported in Nezavisimaya Gazeta 2/16.
| 1. Yeltsin | 17.1% |
| 2. Yavlinsky | 7.2% |
| 3. Zyuganov | 6.5% |
| 4. Chernomyrdin | 5.6% |
VTsIOM released a poll of 1648 people that took place at the end of January. Reported in Sevodnya 2/16:
"Whom of the following politicians would you agree to see in the post of Russian president. Name all such politicians."
| 1. Yavlinsky | 18% |
| 2. Zyuganov | 18% |
| 3. Sv. Fedorov | 16% |
| 4. Lebed | 16% |
| 5. Zhirinovsky | 11% |
| 6. Chernomyrdin | 10% |
| 7. Yeltsin | 9% |
| 8. Gaidar | 8% |
| 9. Gorbachev | 7% |
| hard to say | 13% |
| none | 12% |
Yavlinsky's following came from: management, workers, specialists, students, 20-40 year olds, and highly educated individuals. Zyuganov's following came from: pensioners, those over 55, less than high school educated. Fedorov's following came from military, specialists, women, 25-40 year olds, higher educated and higher earning individuals. Lebed's following came from military, students, those under 25, high school educated, and lower income individuals. Zhirinovsky's following came from military, men, those up to 25, high school educated and lower income individuals. Chernomyrdin's following came from specialists, those under 40, highly educated, and high income individuals. Yeltsin's following came from entrepreneurs, specialists, those under 25 and over 55.
B. Other Polls:
A poll by the Public Opinion Fund of 8869 participants in 30 Russian regions appeared in Obshchaya Gazeta No. 8 (Feb. 29-March 6):
"Which of the following words best describe your present state?"
| Income: | |||
| Rb 210,00-600,00 | Rb 601,000-1,500,000 | Rb>1,500,000 | |
| uncertainty | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| hope | 22% | 27% | 30% |
| confidence | 5% | 10% | 24% |
| optimism | 14% | 19% | 22% |
| purposefulness | 7% | 13% | 18% |
| incentive | 24% | 18% | 16% |
| anxiety | 19% | 16% | 15% |
| weariness | 21% | 16% | 6% |
| humiliation | 9% | 6% | 2% |
A VTsIOM poll reported in OMRI on 2/13 that two-thirds of Russians expect some level of voting fraud.
A poll conducted in December of 3850 Russians in 69 of 75 regions by USIA, the Brookings Institution, and the National Science Foundation was reported in the Washington Post on 2/11:
"Do you think that the West is pursuing the goal of weakening Russia with its economic advice?" Yes >60% No 20% 10% claimed the country was heading in the right direction. 42% believed elections were important to them personally compared to 32% in 1993. 51% watched TV campaign programs daily compared to 32% in 1993. > 50% opposed privatization. 77% thought the break up of the USSR did more harm than good. But only 29% supported a leader who seeks to reestablish the USSR. 48% supported someone who promises to develop Russia within its borders.
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