The Russian Election Compendium

RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
February 9, 1996, No. 16

Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government

To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including "betting charts." Individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.

I. Recent Significant Political Events:

- NEW DUMA COMMITTEE CHAIRS ASSIGNED: The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CP-RF) gained nine committee chairs including: Legislation (Anatoly Lukyanov), Economic Policy (Yuri Maslyukov), Security (Victor Ilyukhin) and Veterans- Affairs (1991 coup plotter, Valentin Varennikov). The pro-government Our Home is Russia (NDR) will chair four committees including: Privatization (Pavel Bunich) and Defense (Lt. General Lev Rokhlin). Zhirinovsky-s Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) will chair four committees including: Labor and Social Policy (Sergei Kalashnikov), Geopolitics (Alexei Mitrofanov), and Information Policy (Oleg Finko). In addition to two new chairs, Yabloko will maintain its two prestigious committees chairs: Budget (Mikhail Zadornov) and Foreign Affairs (Vladimir Lukin). Nikolai Ryzhkov-s leftist People's Power will hold two committee chairs: CIS Affairs (Georgy Tikhonov) and Culture (Stanislav Govorukhin). At the time of the report, the Agrarian faction had two committee chairs, which it had refused to accept. (omri 1/22)

- FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER FOR THE ECONOMY ANATOLY CHUBAIS REMOVED: Completing a string of firings of reform-oriented cabinet officials, BORIS YELTSIN removed Anatoly Chubais, the privatization architect and one of the last remaining economic reformists in the government on January 16. Chubais is blamed for much of Russia's current economic hardship and his removal is seen as a concession to the opposition forces' victory in December parliamentary elections. Yeltsin claimed had he dumped Chubais earlier, Our Home is Russia would have gained 20% of the vote as opposed to 10%. Kuranty editor ANATOLY PANKOV countered that although Chubais shoulders much of the blame, he toiled diligently for Yeltsin; and furthermore, the government at the moment is not proposing publicly to change its economic course. "How could Chubais have affected the voting results of a movement he has never been a member of?" Communist Duma Speaker GENNADY SELEZNEV welcomed the dismissal of "the most odious" figure in the government. CHUBAIS defended his record in the Financial Times, warning that to abandon privatization would lead to a bloodbath. He also cautioned of the two faces of Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV - one for domestic and one for foreign consumption. Chubais' successor is VLADIMIR KADANNIKOV, the head of the faltering AvtoVAZ automobile company. Kadannikov's reform credentials are questionable. Government officials have stated reforms will continue, but experts are taking a wait-and-see attitude. (Financial Times (FT) 1/19, Kuranty 1/23, Sevodnya 1/25, FT 1/26, Russian Review 2/2, omri 2/6, FT 2/5)

- COMMUNISTS IN THE DUMA: In the month after the Duma elections, the Communist Party of the Russia Federation (CP-RF) has turned conciliatory in preparation for the June presidential election. They elected a suave new Speaker in GENNADY SELEZNEV and had party leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV tour the West to assure foreigners that a Communist victory in June will not threaten Western interests. (See Zyuganov section below.) The party has struck a conciliatory tone on Chechnya, with Seleznev stating, "It is time for the Duma, the government, and the presidential team to work together to work out certain measures to put an end to war." (NYT 1/19, omri 2/5)

In his first interview as Speaker, SELEZNEV explained that the party would not have undue influence over him, even though he had not taken the traditional step of resigning from his party upon becoming Speaker. He further claimed the Communists believed in a multi-party system, and that he personally liked the Swedish method of socialism. Seleznev met with President YELTSIN in early February to discuss ways the Duma and administration could more efficiently pass laws. (Nezavisimaya gazeta 1/19)

- YABLOKO IN THE DUMA: YAVLINSKY-s Yabloko bloc began collecting signatures in the Duma for a no-confidence vote in the Chernomyrdin government. The effort, said Yabloko press secretary YEVGENIA DILLENDORF, was designed to initiate discussions on the government-s criminal Chechnya policy. Yabloko collected 48 of the 90 required signatures. Yabloko has been criticized for not working closely with Our Home is Russia (NDR) in the new Duma. Responding, senior faction member VICTOR SHEINIS claimed "Yabloko goes alone because I do not see a political faction that could become our ally. No one is as close as Russia's Choice was." (Interfax 1/23, Nezavisimaya gazeta 1/20)

- YEGOR GAIDAR ON YABLOKO AND COMMUNIST PROGRAMS: Russia's Democratic Choice leader Yegor Gaidar described both Yabloko and Communist programs as containing similar inflationary provisions and imperial tones when discussing foreign policy priorities. He urged Yabloko to change several planks in its platform. Yabloko leader GRIGORY YAVLINSKY responded he is always willing to talk and explain his program. Yavlinsky said he could now work with Gaidar since Gaidar renounced his ties with YELTSIN. However, most believe Gaidar will push for a CHERNOMYRDIN or Nizhni Novgorod governor BORIS NEMTSOV candidacy. (Interfax 1/23, omri 2/5)

- NEW HEAD OF UPPER HOUSE CHOSEN: YEGOR STROYEV will head the Federation Council. Stroyev, 58, is a former Politburo member and governor of Orel Oblast. He was in charge of agriculture in the last year of the Soviet Union. He claims to favor Our Home is Russia views against CP-RF programs. (Boston Globe 1/24)

II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June

A. Betting Charts
Individual	Likelihood	Change From Last Week
Graham Allison	50%
Sergei Grigoriev	60%	+10%
John Lloyd
Matthew Lantz	60%	+ 5%
B. Events Affecting Likelihood of Elections in June

- CENTRAL ELECTION COMMITTEE (CEC) DEFINES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION GUIDELINES: Presidential candidates are allowed to spend a maximum of 14.5 billion rubles ($3.1 million) during their campaigns. Individual contributions are limited to 2.88 million rubles ($610) and legal entities can contribute a maximum of 288 million rubles ($61,000). All deposits and transactions must be made through special accounts in the state-run Sberbank. Finance laws were not strictly enforced in the December Duma elections. One million signatures are due to the CEC by April 16, and no more than 70,000 can come from any one region. (omri 2/5, Rossiiskaya gazeta 2/1)

- US PRONOUNCEMENTS ON RUSSIAN POLICY: Speaking at Harvard, Secretary of State WARREN CHRISTOPHER warned Russia to play by the rules. He claimed the US seeks Russia's deeper integration into Western institutions, but that integration depends on Russia's willingness to abide by international norms and to stay on the path of reform. Assistant Secretary of State STROBE TALBOTT writing in the New York Times claimed America's policy remains clear and consistent: to support democracy. However, "It is not our responsibility to choose Russia's leaders. It never was. The Russian people now have the power to do that themselves." Academic MICHAEL MANDELBAUM writing in Time disagreed with current American policy claiming US policy should now only ensure Russian good behavior in foreign policy and refrain from offering economic advice that is often resented by Russians. (NYT 1/19, Boston Globe 1/19, NYT 2/5, The Economist 2/3, Time 2/5)

III. If June Presidential Elections, What Outcome?

A. Individuals- Estimates

% chance of winning the presidency

Graham Allison		Matthew Lantz		Sergei Grigoriev		Moscow Times Oddsmakers
Yeltsin	24%	Zyuganov	30%	Yeltsin	30%	Yeltsin	40%
Yavlinsky	20%	Yeltsin	25%	Zyuganov	25%	Chernomyrdin	33%
Zyuganov	15%	Chernomyrdin	14%	Zhiriniovsky	20%	Zyuganov	29%
Lebed	10%	Yavlinsky	12%	Lebed	15%	Yavlinsky	20%
Chernomyrdin	10%	Zhirinovsky	10%	Yavlinsky	10%	Lebed	13%
Zhirinovsky	5%	Lebed	9%	Chernomyrdin	10%	No Election	13%
						Zhirinovsky	10%
						Dark Horse	6%

B. Recent Events Affecting Outcome of Presidential Elections

- GENNADY ZYUGANOV (CP-RF): Communist leader and presidential front-runner Gennady Zyuganov spent much of the first week of February attempting to allay Western concerns of a Communist presidential victory in June. Zyuganov traveled to Davos, Switzerland to the World Economic Forum to speak to Western government officials and investors. He assured the audience that "a return to monopoly was impossible and that the Communists support a stable economy for investors." However, many of his promises appeared vague. For example, he offered, "Private companies could stay in private hands if they work well and are being run properly." He also expressed to New York Times columnist, William Safire that the state should control basic industries, the energy sector, railroads, defense production, education, and medicine. (Boston Globe 2/3, NYT 2/5, omri 2/5)

Zyuganov's foreign policy views were explained in an op-ed in the New York Times on February 1. "We would restore the might of the Russian state and its status in the world. That would make its policies incomparably more predictable and responsible than they are today." According to Zyuganov, Russia could never be a "junior partner" to the United States, nor should America aspire to be the world's sole superpower. The Communists seek the voluntary reintegration of the CIS. He considers Nato expansion dangerous proposal that interferes with the internal workings of Russia He would delay Start II if the West were to follow such a policy. He concludes by seeking Western economic cooperation and exchanges, but asserts, "...we insist on acknowledgment of our equal right to follow our own path in accordance with our traditions and conditions." (NYT 2/1)

- BORIS YELTSIN: President Yeltsin announced he would make his final decision on his reelection bid on February 13 to 15. (A Valentine gift to the world!) In making this announcement he said, "I realize that if I agree [to run], the struggle will be tough...Those who [I would] be running against are not exactly ordinary people, but we'll organize the campaign taking account of the experience in other countries." Conventional wisdom anticipates a Yeltsin reelection bid. (Washington Post 1/23)

In January, Yeltsin distributed an internal memo - subsequently leaked to the press - which urged radical measures to ensure that he stays in power. Actions suggested included: sacking regional governors who did not sufficiently support NDR in December, channeling government money into the election campaign, using state-run media to bolster the campaign, curtailing money to state-owned regional newspapers which supported opposition candidates, and ensuring that Yeltsin supporters dominate the Central Election Commission. (FT 1/29)

The Mayor of Moscow, YURI LUZHKOV, has put aside differences with Yeltsin and joined his campaign staff. His duty will be to deliver Moscow for the President. (omri 1/22)

Controversy over the Presidential Campaign Headquarters has arisen. Central Election Commission Chairman NIKOLAI RYABOV said the transformation of the Headquarters into a campaign office for one candidate would be inadmissible. First Deputy Prime Minister OLEG SOSKOVETS responded the headquarters is not a Yeltsin political campaign committee, since Yeltsin has not decided whether or not to run for reelection. Reports later suggested that recently dismissed Chief of Staff SERGEI FILATOV will head a separate campaign headquarters for Yeltsin (Interfax 1/22, omri 1/25, 2/5)

- GRIGORY YAVLINSKY (YABLOKO): On January 27 Yabloko officially nominated Yavlinsky as its presidential candidate. In his acceptance speech, Yavlinsky made overtures to charismatic KRO leader ALEXANDER LEBED, saying coalition discussions were underway not only with GAIDAR-s Russia's Democratic Choice, but also with KRO. Lebed responded that "I'm a friend of all professionals, and Yavlinsky is a professional." Human rights leader SERGEI KOVALEV claimed Yavlinsky's proposal to work with KRO was risky. (NYT 1/28, omri 1/29)

Yavlinsky also expressed his views at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. He dismissed Communist party leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV as a mere figurehead controlled by a party yearning to bring back the old Soviet days of iron-fisted rule. He claimed the Yeltsin government had ruined reform by allowing run away inflation to occur and then solving the problem by refusing to pay wages. On Nato expansion, he offered, "Russia has no right to teach other countries what to do and what blocs they want to be in. Russia has enough problems inside." (NYT 2/5, Washington Post 2/5)

- VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY (LDPR): Zhirinovsky praised recent hard- line government policies claiming he likes "the corrections to the course of reform and Yeltsin's position on terrorism." The LDPR leader said he would not criticize the government if its policies started to produce a real improvement in the lives of Russians. (omri 1/24)

Speaking before the Council of Europe in Strasbourg, France, Zhirinovsky called the organization a "slime pond for defunct politicians entitled to free meals." (good line) He then said rejecting Russia's membership application would drive voters into his party's folds. On the START II treaty, he claimed his party opposed it because it makes Russian a secondary state. The LDPR, according to Zhirinovsky, supports any agreements "that do not humiliate, insult, or limit Russia as a great nation." (omri 1/26, Washington Post 2/1)

- ALEXANDER LEBED (KRO): Nezavisimaya gazeta reported on January 26 that general Alexander Lebed was planning to leave KRO due to disputes with KRO leader YURI SKOKOV. The source claimed Lebed was joining forces with film maker and Democratic Party of Russia leader STANISLAV GOVORUHKIN. This rumor was later denied, but it prompted prominent KRO members to urge Lebed and Skokov to put aside their differences to avoid destroying the party. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 1/26)

- SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV: Popular eye doctor and Ross Perot-type figure, Syvatoslav Fedorov, announced he will seek the Russian presidency. He claims the "policies of the current president and government are leading us nowhere." He pledged to double GDP in five years if elected. His party, the Workers' Self Government Party, achieved a surprisingly high 3.98% in the December Duma elections. (omri 2/6)

- FORMER YELTSIN ALLIES OPPOSE YELTSIN ACTIONS AND CANDIDACY: Numerous former Yeltsin allies have come out against President Yeltsin's recent policies and likely reelection bid. A Financial Times editorial stated, "Like Gorbachev, who reverted to hard-line comrades in an effort to bolster his shaky grip on power in the dying days of the Soviet Union, Yeltsin has lurched to the left in an attempt to outmaneuver his popular Communist and Nationalist rivals." Nobel Peace Prize nominee SERGEI KOVALEV resigned from the Human Rights Commission and Presidential Council sending a scathing letter claiming, "If democracy in Russia has a future...it will be in spite of you and not thanks to you." His departure encouraged other prominent Russians to leave those organizations. Izvestiya editor OTTO LATSIS wrote of Yeltsin, he "is doing everything to destroy his already weak chance for support. Use of force [in Pervomaiskoye] is a misguided attempt to present Yeltsin as a decisive leader." Former Prime Minister and long time Yeltsin ally, YEGOR GAIDAR claimed the new Yeltsin policies would not broaden the Yeltsin/Chernomyrdin electorate and formally renounced his ties with the President. (FT 1/20-1, Interfax 1/23, Washington Post 1/30, Izvestiya 1/20, Kommersant Daily 1/23)

- UNITED COMMUNISTS?: The three largest left organizations that failed to enter the Duma in the December elections have agreed to back a central leftist candidate, most likely CP-RF leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV. At the 5th Party Congress of the radical Communist Labor Russia party, party leader VICTOR ANPILOV reversed earlier proclamations and announced his movement would support the CP-RF. Anpilov earlier had stated he sought a canididate that would liquidate the institution of the presidency, restore Soviet power, and annul the results of privatization. CP-RF leaders have not explicitly promised any of these goals. Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN announced during the last week of January that his party would also back the Communists. Earlier in the month, Power to the People head, NIKOLAI RYZHKOV threw his support to the Communists as well. (Interfax 1/23, omri 1/29, 1/30)

- DISORGANIZED REFORMERS: ELLA PAMFILOVA, Duma deputy and head of the Common Cause bloc, is attempting to convene a congress of all rightist, right-of-center, and centrist parties and movements to nominate a united democratic presidential candidate. Commenting on the necessity of unification Pamfilova argued, "The Communists are uniting; Zhrinovskyites have rallied to the party of power. Our only possible option today is to unite." In theory, representatives from as far left as Women of Russian and the Union of Industrialists to as far right as Russia's Democratic Choice would join. Pamfilova claims to have the willingness of GRIGORY YAVLINSKY and YEGOR GAIDAR in this effort. The group, however, will likely stumble over whom to nominate. YELTSIN is clearly not acceptable to most, while YAVLINSKY may be too leftist for the more liberal deputies. (Kommersant Daily 1/31, Obshchaya Gazeta 2/1-7)

IV. Polling Results For Elections:

- The New York Times reported an unidentified opinion poll on the Russian presidential election on 2/5:

1. Zyuganov	14%
2. Yavlinsky	11%
3. Zhirinovsky	7%
4. Lebed	6%
5. Yeltsin	5%
50% undecided

- The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll of the most popular presidential candidates reported in OMRI on 1/29:

Zyuganov	11.3%
Yavlinsky	7.7%
Zhirinovsky	7.1%
Lebed	5.4%
Yeltsin	5.4%

- The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research released a poll conducted of 1600 participants from 1/20-1/25 assessing the most trusted politicians in Russia. Reported in INTERFAX on 1/31 and in the 2/1-7 issue of Obshchaya gazeta:

"Name five to six political figures in Russia whom you trust the most."

	8/95	11/95	1/96
Zyuganov	6%	11%	17%
Yavlinsky	9%	15%	15%
Lebed	10%	13%	14%
Sv. Fedorov	7%	8%	9%
Zhirinovsky	7%	7%	9%
Chernomyrdin	7%	10%	9%
Gaidar	4%	7%	9%
E. Pamfilova	4%	5%	7%
B. Nemtsov	6%	6%	6%
Y. Luzhkov	2%	4%	5%
Yeltsin	2%	4%	5%

ZYUGANOV is trusted by executives, managers, pensioners, those over 55, those with less than a secondary school education, men, and rural individuals.

YAVLINSKY is trusted by executives, students, entrepreneurs, professionals, unemployed, 25- 45 year olds, those higher educated, and city dwellers.

LEBED is trusted by the military, law enforcement officers, professionals, executives, men, those between the ages of 40-55, those with a secondary education, and rural individuals.

ZHIRINOVSKY is trusted by the military, students, unemployed, workers, men, those under 40, and those with a secondary education.